Corona Virus: How Are We Doing?

[marinyork]

Christmas is two months away. I can't see things won't be worse by then than they are now. Hope I am wrong but i will be astounded if I am.

Most people don't watch the news any more so they see neither the numbers, nor if they were even more interested than that various models/scientists talking about the peak in Liverpool being 4-6 weeks from now and much of the rest of the country the peak being, well around Christmas and New Year actually. A lot of people here seem to have found tier 2 to tier 3 confusing either thinking everything was banned, or a lot of other people thinking that you could still meet outside in groups of six in hospitality venues (which you can't, but tune into the news tomorrow and we'll see what really happens).

 

[Adam4868]

One conversation I had this week a friend has managed to organise something for Christmas. That's kind of nice, really glad for them, except it probably isn't going to happen like they think. Even if it does happen it doesn't do anything else for the very large numbers that live alone who are young or who will be separated from families/partners/don't have one or both of the aforementioned.

Just on cue the Sun's been writing about the rapid tests again! Mutterings of more trials, bigger trials and you guessed it Christmas was mentioned.

Dare not even mention Xmas in our house.We usually go to Ireland to partners family/parents.Its looking like Xmas is cancelled this year ? Can't see it happening can anyone else.Saying that my dad is home from hospital after 11 day stay,slowly recovering from Covid.Its took it out of him and my mum.Its hard there's not much aftercare out there.Lucky they have me to help at the moment.Must be a nightmare for anyone living alone with no family support.

 

[lane]

Most people don't watch the news any more so they see neither the numbers, nor if they were even more interested than that various models/scientists talking about the peak in Liverpool being 4-6 weeks from now and much of the rest of the country the peak being, well around Christmas and New Year actually. A lot of people here seem to have found tier 2 to tier 3 confusing either thinking everything was banned, or a lot of other people thinking that you could still meet outside in groups of six in hospitality venues.

Agree most people find the tiers confusing and to be honest they are a bit - I was trying to find something out and gave up.

 

[marinyork]

Must be a nightmare for anyone living alone with no family support.

I worry a great deal because the odd thing dotted around the second half of December would be odd catch ups with friends at houses or hospitality venues, which from the point of view of many will effectively be banned (yes you can meet outside in parks but how many will do that). This will be an unusually long block of time for some people. Or other things like support groups which are pretty much wiped out at the moment. Or the support worker system and services that are so stretched right now. That's looking at it 2 months ahead. In various geographic locations on this forum in 2-3 weeks things are going to be looking a lot worse than they are now and we will be looking the 5-6 weeks ahead of that with an even grimmer perspective.

 

[lane]

Dare not even mention Xmas in our house.We usually go to Ireland to partners family/parents.Its looking like Xmas is cancelled this year ? Can't see it happening can anyone else.Saying that my dad is home from hospital after 11 day stay,slowly recovering from Covid.Its took it out of him and my mum.Its hard there's not much aftercare out there.Lucky they have me to help at the moment.Must be a nightmare for anyone living alone with no family support.

Good news he is out of hospital hope he continues to improve. Your right he is lucky he has some support.

 

[Unkraut]

It's very obvious that you haven't spent a great deal of time in the UK recently.
With a couple of obvious partial exceptions, every single government since 1979 has systematically and deliberately undermined the trust of the population that government is a good way to solve problems.

Your first sentence is fair comment, I left in 1997, though still very much in touch. Nevertheless, I have been more than appalled at the way the Johnson government has handled this. The laissez-faire approach at the beginning was a catastrophic mistake.

I also agree with you that Johnson is a symptom of a malaise that goes back decades. Whether too much or too little government is a topic for another day.

On the other hand, perhaps there is a difference in mentality amongst the population, where Germans have been persuaded of the purpose of obeying the hygiene requirements and mostly do so (the effect of Italy) whereas in Britain this is seen as heavy government setting out rules. Cf. Daily Wail commenters. @Andy in Germany do you think there is anything in this?

Britain and Germany ... How can comparing them be not comparing like with like?

As far as the number of deaths goes 10 003 for Germany and 44 571 for the UK is a huge difference. Germany has a bigger population, on the other hand Britain has tested far more people, and has more than caught up in this regard. Have people died with covid in Germany that have not been picked up, but would have using the British metric? The difference is so great I find it difficult to believe we are comparing like with like.

Another difference when it comes to govt trust is that with a written constitution, there is a procedure to call the govt to account. The health law that allows the govt to suspend the basic freedoms guaranteed in the constitution stipulates a date must be given when measures have to be lifted. The courts can and have rejected govt measures where the govt couldn't prove they were commensurate in dealing with the spread of the virus. Banning people from staying in hotels (Beherbergungsverbot!) has just been rejected up north, as this restricts freedom of movement and hotels are not at present where the disease is spreading. Lot of dissent about this elsewhere.

Germany still has time to get it wrong - we are only at the beginning of the pandemic. Warnings here about not getting proud and complacent. Tracking and tracing here is no longer able to keep up with the numbers, and is having to prioritise. The NHS might not be doing quite so badly on this. The hotline here isn't exactly good, and the bureaucratic right hand doesn't always know what the left hand is doing.

Seriously, I blame the war! Germany had such shock that they had to start again, rebuilding their country, including their political systems.

Don't forget after WW2 Britain had Attlee's reforming government.

One of the curses of Britain is the class system (if you don't believe me, think of Conservative government by messed up former public schoolboys!), and this started being seriously dismantled in Germany after the First World War.

 

[marinyork]

On the other hand, perhaps there is a difference in mentality amongst the population, where Germans have been persuaded of the purpose of obeying the hygiene requirements and mostly do so (the effect of Italy) whereas in Britain this is seen as heavy government setting out rules. Cf. Daily Wail commenters. @Andy in Germany do you think there is anything in this?

There is a huge difference in the population. It's not really any coincidence that srw would write such a thing. He is in the group that the UK population has utter contempt for so he doesn't see a bit of it.

A better comparison of population attitudes for the UK would be Italy. A very sceptical population that says one thing and does another and everyone is in it for themselves. Ironically enough at the start of the pandemic italian tv was full of warnings and gloating at the stupid germans as they saw them who were not taking coronavirus seriously.

 

[raleighnut]

I worry a great deal because the odd thing dotted around the second half of December would be odd catch ups with friends at houses or hospitality venues, which from the point of view of many will effectively be banned (yes you can meet outside in parks but how many will do that). This will be an unusually long block of time for some people. Or other things like support groups which are pretty much wiped out at the moment. Or the support worker system and services that are so stretched right now. That's looking at it 2 months ahead. In various geographic locations on this forum in 2-3 weeks things are going to be looking a lot worse than they are now and we will be looking the 5-6 weeks ahead of that with an even grimmer perspective.

TBH I'm actually looking forward to Chriggy this year, most years I end up having to go to a 'family' get together where I have to pretend to be 'normal' i.e. not a cyclist. Hopefully it'll be just me and Maz this year although if her Son and his Wife/kids are covid free by then they might come round in the morning for my Xmas brekkie/brunch of Crispy Toast* with Cream Cheese and Smoked Salmon and maybe some Capers and Dill on top.

* the secret is to leave the Toast in the Toaster until it cools before lightly buttering and adding the topping or it goes soggy.

 

[Andy in Germany]

On the other hand, perhaps there is a difference in mentality amongst the population, where Germans have been persuaded of the purpose of obeying the hygiene requirements and mostly do so (the effect of Italy) whereas in Britain this is seen as heavy government setting out rules. Cf. Daily Wail commenters. @Andy in Germany do you think there is anything in this?

I think that's fair: the way Merkel (and to be fair our state president in Baden-Württemberg) presented the lockdown was far more empathetic and at least appears to have some scientific base, and as you said, these rules are subject to constitutional limits and have been successfully challenged by state governments, so there's a feeling the government can't just use this to control everyone.

I think that the fact lockdown decisions are much more localised as well is important.

 

[fossyant]

There are many who are still not following rules. Friends daughter has gone into Manchester last night as a group of 6 (from 6 different households) and rented an appartment to stay over. Breaks every rule. Some don't give a stuff. I'm thinking why I should stick to the rules TBH, I'm not at risk, and 'may' have had it. Grrrr.

PS I'll stick to it. Planning on staying over in a hotel in Manchester next weekend - why, we need to get out, and we'll walk round the City's Halloween Monster trail (no kids with us), then go for a 'proper meal' not just a thinly disguised 'substantial meal' (I've already decided where) then retire to the hotel room. Next day, there is an art trail that's just been launched, so we can have another walk. Also means we can arange for my son to drop us off without using public transport, and collect us the next day. Hotel prices are very cheap at the moment.

 

[MrGrumpy]

There are many who are still not following rules. Friends daughter has gone into Manchester last night as a group of 6 (from 6 different households) and rented an appartment to stay over. Breaks every rule. Some don't give a stuff. I'm thinking why I should stick to the rules TBH, I'm not at risk, and 'may' have had it. Grrrr.

Surprised nope , and that’s another reason why things won’t be eased anytime soon !?

 

[wafter]

Totally anecdotal and unrepresententive but during the first wave I knew one person directly who got it, since the latest wave hit I know of four more and possibly a fifth (three being connected - a mate, wife and child) . All (excluding the child) are in their late '30s and thankfully while unpleasant the symptoms don't appear to be severe / life threatening in any of the cases.

From my tiny, totally subjective viewpoint it seems a lot closer to home this time, although given the relatively low-severity of the symptoms I suspect this growth is more a function of increased testing than anything else.

 

[srw]

How am I getting on with the pandemic? I'm getting increasingly pissed off with people claiming it's nothing out of the ordinary for deaths. They might be extremely gullible, extremely stupid or have an ulterior motive.

I've taken the legend off this chart, of age-standardised mortality (deaths) over the last 10 years. See if you can work out which year is 2020. As you're doing it, remember which year in the last 10 years has been subject to very significant restrictions which have had the effect of significantly reducting infection and death.

Source: https://www.actuaries.org.uk/system...ality-monitor-Week-41-2020-v01-2020-10-20.pdf
These guys are quite literally paid, by organisations whose profit depends on it, to understand death statistically.

These guys are paid by the UK government to take an independent view of statistics. In case this chart looks familiar, yes I posted it a few weeks ago. It's impossible to disguise a time series chart, but there are two pandemic years represented on this one. You might, just, be able to spot the one that occurred before the advent of modern medicine. The other one is represented by the solid black line. It represents a year where a significant amount of death has been supressed by government action.

https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopula...deathsoccurringbetween1januaryand31august2020

 

[DCLane]

Called to see son in Lincoln on the way back from the national hillclimb. Now we kept our distance to protect him, given he's got to self-isolate so we left a food parcel on the wall (chocolate cake, brownies and a large bottle of apple juice from a farm shop) and had a distanced discussion.

However his house-mate, who is also supposed to be self-isolating, had his parents visit him in the house for the day. They live in Manchester

 

[Unkraut]

Can you provide an example of where economic damage has been limited by letting the virus spread more widely through less restrictions,

I'm not sure anybody is advocating letting the virus run rampant except perhaps Dr Bhakdi so beloved of Peter Hitchens and his disciples. Hasn't gained much traction here, but has also been sidelined by much of the media. If Bhakdi is right, much of what is being advocated to contain the virus is pointless, if he is wrong he is being highly irresponsible.

versus the 3 examples I provided of life returning to normal by adopting more stringent measures.

The key word here is stringent. The measures must be specific and aim at the real drivers of the spread. If you want to argue for a general lockdown, fair enough, but the long-term economic damage inevitable with this will have a knock-on effect on health, and the prosperity needed for the well-being of a nation. A lengthy recession, mass unemployment. The job of politics is to carefully weigh all this up.

Aside from that, people only being human are already fed up with restrictions, and excessive and heavy-handed implementation could turn them into rebels who won't follow advice. There is plenty of that already. The biggest single factor in containing the spread is distancing, hygiene and masks, and both in the UK and here there is a sizable proportion of the population who don't see the need for this. If, however, you could get them on board with this, then it won't or at least might not be necessary to close pubs, restaurants, cinemas etc. that would provide some relief from a restricted way of life, and at the same time helps to preserve jobs across the economy.