Corona Virus: How Are We Doing?

[newfhouse]

Interventions will have no effect

Why do you say that?

There are arguments to be had about which interventions will work best - and they are ongoing between people with far greater expertise than you or I - but not whether to intervene at all.

 

[midlife]

Interventions will have no effect .. other than to push up infections ,,, destroy the economy and wipe out the education system .... based on reports from all over the UK and Europe and WHO advice.
I see Wee Jimmy Krankies, " 2 week circuit breaker " has entered the third week ....

Melbourne seems to have pushed the infection rate down by interventions.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-australia-54654646

 

[lane]

I've copied this and it does say 6% in brackets:

Covid-19 was involved in 761 (or 6%) of the deaths registered in the UK in the week of 16 October.

Have I missed something in your post?

This is what I copied from the BBC "Covid-19 was involved in 761 (or 61%)" looks like 60% to me? Where do you copy it from? If it is my eyes the a drive to that place up north may be in order to test my eyesight.

 

[lane]

Melbourne seems to have pushed the infection rate down by interventions.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-australia-54654646

Yes of course and so did we when we had the lockdown the R went to between 0.5 and 0.7. Our current restrictions are (I think) much less stringent than Melbourne. I am not saying we couldn't get the R below 1 just that what we are doing now wont achieve that. I am not a scientist so mostly going on what people like Vallance and Whitey have said. Still as a lay person if the lockdown got the R down to maybe 0.7 it seems clear that what we are doing now won't get it to 0.7, I mean that has got to be completely obvious.

 

[lane]

I've copied this and it does say 6% in brackets:

Covid-19 was involved in 761 (or 6%) of the deaths registered in the UK in the week of 16 October.

Have I missed something in your post?

The BBC have now corrected the article.

 

[SpokeyDokey]

This is what I copied from the BBC "Covid-19 was involved in 761 (or 61%)" looks like 60% to me? Where do you copy it from? If it is my eyes the a drive to that place up north may be in order to test my eyesight.

Straight off of the BBC website Robert Cuffe 11.09am today in the Live Reporting stream (it's still there):

Covid-19 was involved in 761 (or 6%) of the deaths registered in the UK in the week of 16 October.

The latest figures published by the Office for National Statistics (ONS) show that this figure is up sharply (61%) on the week before, but still far below the peak reached in April.

I wonder if they messed the figures up and then corrected them twixt our respective copying sessions?

If you feel you have to do a Cummings then really, I'd rather not know about it.

 

[SpokeyDokey]

The BBC have now corrected the article.

Ha - I didn't read your post until after I had posted mine.

If only everything in life was so easy to sort out.

 

[raleighnut]

Yes of course and so did we when we had the lockdown the R went to between 0.5 and 0.7. Our current restrictions are (I think) much less stringent than Melbourne. I am not saying we couldn't get the R below 1 just that what we are doing now wont achieve that. I am not a scientist so mostly going on what people like Vallance and Whitey have said. Still as a lay person if the lockdown got the R down to maybe 0.7 it seems clear that what we are doing now won't get it to 0.7, I mean that has got to be completely obvious.

Sod the 'R' number, this all started with 1 person.

 

[SpokeyDokey]

Sod the 'R' number, this all started with 1 person.

Can you have an R number with only 1 infected person?

 

[lane]

I only say 4 weeks because there was a doctor (I think) on TV and he said from symptoms two weeks before it is serious enough to go in hospital them two weeks to die. tHerefore drag will be 4 weeks people are not normally dead two weeks after they show symptoms for the first time.

EDIT - is there is a two week drag on certificates that will be 6 weeks. So if we have 40k cases a day now (probably higher) and the mortality rate is 1% then in 4 to 6 weeks we will have 400 deaths a day or 3,000 a week as they say already "baked in".

I seem to be wrong we already have 367 deaths just today - unfortunately things seem to be worse than I expected.

 

[Flick of the Elbow]

Fingers crossed it looks like the restrictions imposed a couple of weeks ago are having the desired effect here in Edinburgh.

Edit - identical restrictions taking longer to take effect a few miles away in South Lanarkshire though. Curious.

 

[kingrollo]

National lockdown in France.

Seems when not if the UK follows suit.

 

[lane]

This Government's handling of the process for putting

National lockdown in France.

Seems when not if the UK follows suit.

100,000 cases a day in France now - we are clearly not far behind so yes I agree

 

[fossyant]

'Expected French National Lockdown'.

 

[lane]

This Government's handling of the process for putting areas into lock down is abysmal. After extensive negotiations with the councils involved it was anticipated there would be an announcement in Nottingham this week and would come into effect this week. The areas had been agreed. Now the Government has delayed things because they have decided to add more areas and need to negotiate with them. This process is taking literally weeks and in the meantime we are filling up one ward a day with Covid patients and all non essential operations are cancelled. Unlike some areas the City Council seem keen to proceed to T3 ASAP. I have no idea why this level of incompetence exists - it's as if there is no rush to do anythings as if time is not a critical factor. Surely we must have learnt something by now.