Corona Virus: How Are We Doing?

[Unkraut]

Some of your argument goes against the scientific evidence and some of it is fantasy.

Pretty well all of it is based on views expressed by suitably qualified virologists, so whilst no-one should ever think them infallible, I don't think any of it is actually fantasy.

Certainly when we add first wave an second wave it will be well over 100,000 [deaths] without a doubt.

Arriving at a death rate seems to me to be difficult. The death total here has just gone through the 10 000 level. I think comparing that with Britain is pointless inasmuch as this cannot possibly be comparing like with like.

The point in the second wave is how many infected will get ill enough to need hospital treatment. In the initial wave this was about 5%. I think about 2% have needed intensive care. These rates may go down, because as those infected are ever younger, the incidence of serious illness as a proportion will decrease. This doesn't mean the healthcare system could never become overloaded, but at present this is not known; only time will tell. The infection numbers in and of themselves are not decisive.

Testing before you go to see a relative is the idea of moonshot which is currently viewed as fantasy by most scientists.

It's been mooted here as a possibility. The quick tests could be used. It might mean having to be more specific in who gets tested, since resources are obviously limited.

 

[srw]

quick test

Build up a sense of trust and responsibility between govt and population

I've pulled out two things from your optimistic, but somewhat naive, post. I could have pulled out rather more. It's very obvious that you haven't spent a great deal of time in the UK recently.

With a couple of obvious partial exceptions, every single government since 1979 has systematically and deliberately undermined the trust of the population that government is a good way to solve problems. Despite the obvious truth that government is the only way to solve many problems.

The result is a population that doesn't trust politicians and a government that is incompetent. You can't change 40 years of systematic messaging inside a few weeks.

Nevertheless, even now, after 40 years of being undermined, the basic structure of the state bureaucracy in the UK is so robust that if it were properly funded and given the authority to do so it would be able to set up a rapid testing regime inside a few weeks.

The fact that it isn't being given that chance is extraordinary. It's not only economically stupid it's also politically stupid. Johnson's legacy will be as the PM who farked up pandemic response.

 

[srw]

The death total here has just gone through the 10 000 level. I think comparing that with Britain is pointless inasmuch as this cannot possibly be comparing like with like.

Britain and Germany are two countries with similar wealth levels, similar social and economic attitudes, similar political centres of gravity, similar education levels, similar geographical inequalities and similar populations.

How can comparing them be not comparing like with like?

 

[Andy in Germany]

Britain and Germany are two countries with similar wealth levels, similar social and economic attitudes, similar political centres of gravity, similar education levels, similar geographical inequalities and similar populations.

How can comparing them be not comparing like with like?

We have a very different federal system of government, with a lot more decisions taken at a local state level rather than federally in Berlin: each state has a president and government and our upper house represents the states in federal decisions. This meant the C-19 response was much more localised and state governments can decide a lot more about how to respond and how to finance their responses.

Germany has a more comprehensive social security system and the economic system reflects social market economics rather than the free market economics favoured by recent UK governments.

Also the healthcare system is financed very differently and is much less dependent on taxation or central government: we pay for health insurance which isn't cheap, and is administered via several companies, some of which are government owned but still operate fairly independently. Hospitals are a mix of privately operated and local government owned so each can set its own priorities and they tend to be smaller and serve a smaller geographical area.

I'm not saying any of this is necessarily better or worse, but it means that we have a different approach and I think it created a greater trust in the government responses because they're seen as local rather than imposed from one central authority.

 

[lane]

Pretty well all of it is based on views expressed by suitably qualified virologists, so whilst no-one should ever think them infallible, I don't think any of it is actually fantasy.

Arriving at a death rate seems to me to be difficult. The death total here has just gone through the 10 000 level. I think comparing that with Britain is pointless inasmuch as this cannot possibly be comparing like with like.

The point in the second wave is how many infected will get ill enough to need hospital treatment. In the initial wave this was about 5%. I think about 2% have needed intensive care. These rates may go down, because as those infected are ever younger, the incidence of serious illness as a proportion will decrease. This doesn't mean the healthcare system could never become overloaded, but at present this is not known; only time will tell. The infection numbers in and of themselves are not decisive.

It's been mooted here as a possibility. The quick tests could be used. It might mean having to be more specific in who gets tested, since resources are obviously limited.

Initially hospital admission were lower due to younger people getting Covid. Where I live the hospital is currently filing one ward a day with new Covid patients most people 50+ because it inevitably spreads from younger to older and inevitably some of them will now die.

Can you provide an example of where economic damage has been limited by letting the virus spread more widely through less restrictions, versus the 3 examples I provided of life returning to normal by adopting more stringent measures.

The quick tests have been mooted here as well but are not reality.

 

[srw]

We have a very different federal system of government, with a lot more decisions taken at a local state level rather than federally in Berlin: each state has a president and government and our upper house represents the states in federal decisions. This meant the C-19 response was much more localised and state governments can decide a lot more about how to respond and how to finance their responses.

Germany has a more comprehensive social security system and the economic system reflects social market economics rather than the free market economics favoured by recent UK governments.

Also the healthcare system is financed very differently and is much less dependent on taxation or central government: we pay for health insurance which isn't cheap, and is administered via several companies, some of which are government owned but still operate fairly independently. Hospitals are a mix of privately operated and local government owned so each can set its own priorities and they tend to be smaller and serve a smaller geographical area.

I'm not saying any of this is necessarily better or worse, but it means that we have a different approach and I think it created a greater trust in the government responses because they're seen as local rather than imposed from one central authority.

Nevertheless, they are two very similar countries.

Comparing them, and learning why Germany's response has been sure-footed - and the reasons you cite have a lot to do with it - and the UK's cack-handed is exactly what those of us in the UK should do. As should the French, the Spanish and the Italians!

 

[Rusty Nails]

Britain and Germany are two countries with similar wealth levels, similar social and economic attitudes, similar political centres of gravity, similar education levels, similar geographical inequalities and similar populations.

How can comparing them be not comparing like with like?

Seriously, I blame the war! Germany had such shock that they had to start again, rebuilding their country, including their political systems.

We, as the "winners", once the initial tranche of nationalisation had been done, just complacently slipped back into the same old political systems and old tribal enmities.

What on earth can we learn from the Germans, when we have people who were born, bred and privately schooled to govern running the country for most of the time since 1945.

 

[srw]

Exactly how deadly is Covid-19? Despite the wishful thinking of some conspiracists who data-mine Swedish stats in optimism, I think most of know the answer to that one.

Hospital admissions is a leading indicator of deaths. Even allowing for the fact that doctors have got much better at treating the disease I can't see the second wave peaking at much less than 400 to 500 deaths per day. I'd be absolutely delighted to be wrong, but given the economic and personal misery caused by death I rather suspect the effective case-control experiment we're launching into with four different approaches in the four home nations will demonstrate that Boris Johnson has picked the wrong strategy.

 

[Ming the Merciless]

Exactly how deadly is Covid-19? Despite the wishful thinking of some conspiracists who data-mine Swedish stats in optimism, I think most of know the answer to that one.

View attachment 554295
Hospital admissions is a leading indicator of deaths. Even allowing for the fact that doctors have got much better at treating the disease I can't see the second wave peaking at much less than 400 to 500 deaths per day. I'd be absolutely delighted to be wrong, but given the economic and personal misery caused by death I rather suspect the effective case-control experiment we're launching into with four different approaches in the four home nations will demonstrate that Boris Johnson has picked the wrong strategy.

Wrong thread

 

[marinyork]

The quick tests have been mooted here as well but are not reality.

As Tom73 said elsewhere the quick tests are there for extra capacity, basically in the UK's case going from 300,000 to 500,000 tests a day. It's also a matter of timescales, people aren't disputing it'll happen, just that it's normally a 2-4 months behind schedule that politicians say if you look back on these things. PHE and the MHRA are also far more restrictive than some countries outside of Europe in terms of how accurate they want to tests to be, what evidence will be accepted and so on. Most of us on the forum talk most of the time about timescales of a week or two ahead.

Talking about a completely different timescale, the second half of winter, yes the quick tests may well be here then. By spring and summer far, far more likely. It's not going to get life back to normal, but it'll be interesting to see what environments/sectors the UK chooses to use these tests as tools to help things along a little bit.

Here we now have tier-3 where church services and various other allowed indoor activities are going along like the clappers.

A lot of people in my circles are talking about Christmas, somehow saying it'll be normal, perhaps just out of just pure blind hope and something to look forward to.

 

[srw]

Wrong thread

This thread is about how we're doing in response to the Coronavirus pandemic. How I'm doing is focussing on real information

 

[marinyork]

This thread is about how we're doing in response to the Coronavirus pandemic. How I'm doing is focussing on real information

I think that was a rare bit of sense of humour by YukonBoy, since the same thing got posted on the other thread with an exciting fanciful link to argue about, for a few minutes anyway to keep you busy and out of trouble.

 

[lane]

A lot of people in my circles are talking about Christmas, somehow saying it'll be normal, perhaps just out of just pure blind hope and something to look forward to.

Blimey I didn't realise that. I thought it was just Boris - assumed most normal people had more sense.

 

[marinyork]

Blimey I didn't realise that. I thought it was just Boris - assumed most normal people had more sense.

One conversation I had this week a friend has managed to organise something for Christmas. That's kind of nice, really glad for them, except it probably isn't going to happen like they think. Even if it does happen it doesn't do anything else for the very large numbers that live alone who are young or who will be separated from families/partners/don't have one or both of the aforementioned.

Just on cue the Sun's been writing about the rapid tests again! Mutterings of more trials, bigger trials and you guessed it Christmas was mentioned.

 

[lane]

Christmas is two months away. I can't see things won't be worse by then than they are now. Hope I am wrong but i will be astounded if I am.