Corona Virus: How Are We Doing?

[Landsurfer]

Just a quick catch up from the ONS.
Deaths, England and Wales, 2nd Oct - 9th Oct .. 9954.
Covid related .. 401.
Covid related, under 65, .. 34.
Population ..66,796,800

 

[SpokeyDokey]

Just a quick catch up from the ONS.
Deaths, England and Wales, 2nd Oct - 9th Oct .. 9954.
Covid related .. 401.
Covid related, under 65, .. 34.
Population ..66,796,800

Mod note:

Thanks for reposting in this thread.

 

[lane]

Just a quick catch up from the ONS.
Deaths, England and Wales, 2nd Oct - 9th Oct .. 9954.
Covid related .. 401.
Covid related, under 65, .. 34.
Population ..66,796,800

Good to see the measure we have in place have been mitigating the deaths from COVID although expect to see these rise substantially over the next few week. Unfortunately if you look at things over the course of a year and not a week the picture is much worse.

 

[midlife]

I think the Ons have more recent figures?

http://news.sky.com/story/coronavir...es-up-53-on-last-week-ons-data-shows-12115681

 

[Ming the Merciless]

Keeping up the exercise , doing a little bit of meeting up outdoors. Haven’t met anyone indoors since first lockdown. Getting outdoors every day if only for an hour walking in the woods or countryside or a park. getting outdoors is great for relaxing and switching off / mental reset.

Went for pub lunch on Sunday now we know which ones are really making an effort. Think we’ve been to pub 4 times since lockdown started.

Missing not seeing mother but need to keep her safe.

 

[fossyant]

Just in a call with my boss, and one of his daughter's has been told to isolate for 2 weeks, so that's his half term ruined. One of my other colleagues has had to do the same with her two kids. No trips out/walks etc. Stuck in the house.

 

[SpokeyDokey]

I think the Ons have more recent figures?

http://news.sky.com/story/coronavir...es-up-53-on-last-week-ons-data-shows-12115681

Still well below the peak back in April i think - so maybe that's some hope that the regional interventions are starting to work.

Albeit with a 2 week (AFAIK) drag on the death stat's being recorded.

 

[lane]

[

Just a quick catch up from the ONS.
Deaths, England and Wales, 2nd Oct - 9th Oct .. 9954.
Covid related .. 401.
Covid related, under 65, .. 34.
Population ..66,796,800

Although the BBC appear not to agree with your figures so not sure who is correct you or the BBC.

11:09
UK deaths involving Covid-19 up 60% in a week

Robert Cuffe
BBC head of statistics
Covid-19 was involved in 761 (or 61%) of the deaths registered in the UK in the week of 16 October.

Although for the BBC figure to be correct there would be 1,247 deaths in the week not 9,954 - although the BBC also says 11,928 deaths which would make it 6% of deaths not 60% so I think the BBC may be wrong and out by a factor of 10?

 

[lane]

Still well below the peak back in April i think - so maybe that's some hope that the regional interventions are starting to work.

Albeit with a 2 week (AFAIK) drag on the death stat's being recorded.

I would anticipate deaths will increase to at least 3,000 a week over the next 4 weeks. I believe the drag on death data is around 4 weeks.

 

[SpokeyDokey]

I would anticipate deaths will increase to at least 3,000 a week over the next 4 weeks. I believe the drag on death data is around 4 weeks.

Is that right? I'm sure I read this morning that the death certificate reporting time lag was around 2 weeks. i only look on ONS/PHE/Gov.uk dashboard so it must be on one of those.

I'll try and look later if I get time. Or else someone else will chip in.

Either way I'm hoping that the interventions will have a pronounced effect.

 

[Landsurfer]

Interventions will have no effect .. other than to push up infections ,,, destroy the economy and wipe out the education system .... based on reports from all over the UK and Europe and WHO advice.
I see Wee Jimmy Krankies, " 2 week circuit breaker " has entered the third week ....

 

[lane]

Is that right? I'm sure I read this morning that the death certificate reporting time lag was around 2 weeks. i only look on ONS/PHE/Gov.uk dashboard so it must be on one of those.

I'll try and look later if I get time. Or else someone else will chip in.

Either way I'm hoping that the interventions will have a pronounced effect.

I only say 4 weeks because there was a doctor (I think) on TV and he said from symptoms two weeks before it is serious enough to go in hospital them two weeks to die. tHerefore drag will be 4 weeks people are not normally dead two weeks after they show symptoms for the first time.

EDIT - is there is a two week drag on certificates that will be 6 weeks. So if we have 40k cases a day now (probably higher) and the mortality rate is 1% then in 4 to 6 weeks we will have 400 deaths a day or 3,000 a week as they say already "baked in".

 

[lane]

Is that right? I'm sure I read this morning that the death certificate reporting time lag was around 2 weeks. i only look on ONS/PHE/Gov.uk dashboard so it must be on one of those.

I'll try and look later if I get time. Or else someone else will chip in.

Either way I'm hoping that the interventions will have a pronounced effect.

Even if the interventions do have an impact I don't think they will reduce deaths below 3k per week ongoing. The reason I say this is we are already generating this number of deaths right now and quite likely more right now (albeit a lag). The R is 1.4 so cases are increasing. The restrictions are very unlikely to get the R below 1 and even if they get back to 1 we will never see any improvement on where we are now. I don't think many experts think the current restrictions will get R below 1.

 

[SpokeyDokey]

I only say 4 weeks because there was a doctor (I think) on TV and he said from symptoms two weeks before it is serious enough to go in hospital them two weeks to die. tHerefore drag will be 4 weeks people are not normally dead two weeks after they show symptoms for the first time.

EDIT - is there is a two week drag on certificates that will be 6 weeks. So if we have 40k cases a day now (probably higher) and the mortality rate is 1% then in 4 to 6 weeks we will have 400 deaths a day or 3,000 a week as they say already "baked in".

This was what i read re reporting lag (from the Gov.uk dashboard site):

Number of deaths of people whose death certificate mentioned COVID-19 as one of the causes. The data are published weekly by the ONS, NRS and NISRA and there is a lag in reporting of at least 11 days because the data are based on death registrations.

 

[SpokeyDokey]

[


Although the BBC appear not to agree with your figures so not sure who is correct you or the BBC.

11:09
UK deaths involving Covid-19 up 60% in a week
View attachment 554795
Robert Cuffe
BBC head of statistics
Covid-19 was involved in 761 (or 61%) of the deaths registered in the UK in the week of 16 October.

Although for the BBC figure to be correct there would be 1,247 deaths in the week not 9,954 - although the BBC also says 11,928 deaths which would make it 6% of deaths not 60% so I think the BBC may be wrong and out by a factor of 10?

I've copied this and it does say 6% in brackets:

Covid-19 was involved in 761 (or 6%) of the deaths registered in the UK in the week of 16 October.

Have I missed something in your post?