Are we being forced to go electric?

[lazybloke]

Fuel efficiency is only talked about in respect of ICE cars. The most fuel efficient engines turn about 40% of the fuel you put in the car into useful energy. The rest is lost to heat and friction. With e-fuels you create fuel from renewable sources but you still set fire to it and use the explosions so you still lose most of the energy you put into it. You also still have to freight e-fuel to service stations.

In comparison an EV is around 90% energy efficient (energy efficiency because there is only energy, not fuel). Almost all of the energy you put in is used to propel the car with only a tiny amount being lost to friction. No heat, no explosions. Oh - and you can get energy almost anywhere if you wait long enough.

So fuel efficiency is good but only as good as a combustion engine. Energy efficiency is much, much better and with EVs it is here to stay (IMHO),

https://theicct.org/e-fuels-wont-save-the-internal-combustion-engine/#:~:text=To compound the problem, according,sun or wind is lost.

Ah i see. I usually equate efficiency of vehicles with economy, to which any improvement is very welcome, certainly not a 'nonsense', i'm sure you didnt intend to imply that!

Yes; ice efficiency is very much in the gutter, whilst a tesla i researched last month claimed 93% efficiency.
THis was derived from elec into the car vs power measurements over time from the motor output, so it encompassed conversion to and from chemical energy, as well as inverter/control gear conversions. Amazinglu efficient.

BUt that means further gains are next to impossible from the present ev technologies, so range remains stuck in the doldrums. Sure a bigger battery gives more mikes, but only with a considerable weight penalty, and my impression is that evs are already morbidly overweight.

I hear arguments that range is plenty good enough already, but that's not the case if you have no private charging space and have the regular inconvenience of using public chargers, that might already be occupied/broken/etc.

Everyone benefits if EV shortcomings can be addressed.
It requires a revolutionary new battery technology that can store enough kWhr in a much smaller/lighter package than present overweight EVs. Hopefully also better value for money, safer, cleaner to manufacture, easier to fully recycle, and with excellent longevity (both in years and charge/discharge cycles).

That's a v tall order to expect by 2030 or even by 2035.
FIngers crossed.

 

[icowden]

BUt that means further gains are next to impossible from the present ev technologies, so range remains stuck in the doldrums. Sure a bigger battery gives more mikes, but only with a considerable weight penalty, and my impression is that evs are already morbidly overweight.

You were saying...
(new tech of 500wh/kg)
https://www.catl.com/en/news/6015.html

https://www.topgear.com/car-news/electric/catl-new-condensed-battery-500whkg

The Mercedes-Benz EQXX is, as our esteemed colleague Paul Horrell states, ‘the ultra-long-range EV experiment’, which managed a whopping 715 miles on one charge in our tests. That battery is 100kWh and has an energy density of 200Wh/kg.

At more than double the density, the implications for the new semi-solid state CATL technology goes far beyond making our electric cars go further.
If batteries have a higher energy density, you need fewer of them to offer the same range. If you need fewer of them, you make the vehicle lighter by default. Thus, the vehicle goes further again. Or the vehicle can even be a plane. High energy-dense batteries are game-changing.

 

[Jameshow]

Ah i see. I usually equate efficiency of vehicles with economy, to which any improvement is very welcome, certainly not a 'nonsense', i'm sure you didnt intend to imply that!

Yes; ice efficiency is very much in the gutter, whilst a tesla i researched last month claimed 93% efficiency.
THis was derived from elec into the car vs power measurements over time from the motor output, so it encompassed conversion to and from chemical energy, as well as inverter/control gear conversions. Amazinglu efficient.

BUt that means further gains are next to impossible from the present ev technologies, so range remains stuck in the doldrums. Sure a bigger battery gives more mikes, but only with a considerable weight penalty, and my impression is that evs are already morbidly overweight.

I hear arguments that range is plenty good enough already, but that's not the case if you have no private charging space and have the regular inconvenience of using public chargers, that might already be occupied/broken/etc.

Everyone benefits if EV shortcomings can be addressed.
It requires a revolutionary new battery technology that can store enough kWhr in a much smaller/lighter package than present overweight EVs. Hopefully also better value for money, safer, cleaner to manufacture, easier to fully recycle, and with excellent longevity (both in years and charge/discharge cycles).

That's a v tall order to expect by 2030 or even by 2035.
FIngers crossed.

Or even 2130!!

100 years btw lead acid and lithium!

 

[Alex321]

Or even 2130!!

100 years btw lead acid and lithium!

100 years between lead-acid and lithium means nothing. There really wasn't the incentive for major improvements in battery technology until modern portable electronic devices came along.

Nor any real incentive for improvement of vehicle batteries when all they were used for was starting the vehicle.

And from the links given above by @icowden it looks likely that we will have very significant improvements before 2030.

 

[lazybloke]

100 years between lead-acid and lithium means nothing. There really wasn't the incentive for major improvements in battery technology until modern portable electronic devices came along.

Nor any real incentive for improvement of vehicle batteries when all they were used for was starting the vehicle.

And from the links given above by @icowden it looks likely that we will have very significant improvements before 2030.

Sounds like i need to catch up with some links.

Although there are promising improvements announced every week on my news feed, i hope some of them do actually become viable products.

Battery longevity has clearly improved over time (li-ion formulations) but I've yet to see good energy density without compromising on other important qualities.

 

[icowden]

Although there are promising improvements announced every week on my news feed, i hope some of them do actually become viable products.
Battery longevity has clearly improved over time (li-ion formulations) but I've yet to see good energy density without compromising on other important qualities.

You sum up the situation perfectly. At the moment there is an arms race to produce the best, most efficient, cheapest, highest density battery. Whoever has the best, most reliable batteries will make money as the EV manufacturers need better batteries for their products. Demand is huge. That's why we get practically weekly announcements of tech breakthroughs. EV Cars have driven the change, but there is also interest from the aviation and freight industries.

 

[DRM]

If anyone has seen Poker Face on one of Sky TV’s channels, you may have noticed an unexpected consequence of EV owner ship, it‘s less easy to be murdered and make it look like a suicide, in one episode the owner of a roadside BBQ outlet has a fall out with his brother, this guy is the chief BBQ Chef who wants out of the business, so his brother concocts an elaborate plan to bump him off, he sneaks back to the brothers caravan, knocks him out, then puts a hose pipe through the caravan window, then is seen looking bemused under his brothers car, hose pipe in hand, as the camera pans up you see the badges on the hatchback, …Nissan Leaf, so he has to stick the hose into the BBQ chimney instead!

 

[FishFright]

Ah i see. I usually equate efficiency of vehicles with economy, to which any improvement is very welcome, certainly not a 'nonsense', i'm sure you didnt intend to imply that!

Yes; ice efficiency is very much in the gutter, whilst a tesla i researched last month claimed 93% efficiency.
THis was derived from elec into the car vs power measurements over time from the motor output, so it encompassed conversion to and from chemical energy, as well as inverter/control gear conversions. Amazinglu efficient.

BUt that means further gains are next to impossible from the present ev technologies, so range remains stuck in the doldrums. Sure a bigger battery gives more mikes, but only with a considerable weight penalty, and my impression is that evs are already morbidly overweight.

I hear arguments that range is plenty good enough already, but that's not the case if you have no private charging space and have the regular inconvenience of using public chargers, that might already be occupied/broken/etc.

Everyone benefits if EV shortcomings can be addressed.
It requires a revolutionary new battery technology that can store enough kWhr in a much smaller/lighter package than present overweight EVs. Hopefully also better value for money, safer, cleaner to manufacture, easier to fully recycle, and with excellent longevity (both in years and charge/discharge cycles).

That's a v tall order to expect by 2030 or even by 2035.
FIngers crossed.

There's already been several revolutionary new battery technologies hence why you see all these EV's happily driving around.

ICE's are the next steam , essential why it lasted but are now there preserve of a few enthusiasts.

 

[MrGrumpy]

There's already been several revolutionary new battery technologies hence why you see all these EV's happily driving around.

ICE's are the next steam , essential why it lasted but are now there preserve of a few enthusiasts.

ICE will disappear eventually , that’s bleedin obvious . However there will be plenty serviceable iCE vehicles on the road way past 2030 ! It seems to me that , if battery tech is moving at pace . Then beat wait a bit more for that range to grow . That article about Mercedes battery range test is where it needs to be ! That’s the game changer everything now is a compromise!

 

[lazybloke]

There's already been several revolutionary new battery technologies hence why you see all these EV's happily driving around.

ICE's are the next steam , essential why it lasted but are now there preserve of a few enthusiasts.

Are you here permanently, or just visiting from 2035 (or so)?

 

[FishFright]

Are you here permanently, or just visiting from 2035 (or so)?

Just passing through and pointing out the obvious . It sure beats covering eyes and ears and hoping nothing will change.

 

[icowden]

ICE will disappear eventually , that’s bleedin obvious . However there will be plenty serviceable iCE vehicles on the road way past 2030 ! It seems to me that , if battery tech is moving at pace . Then beat wait a bit more for that range to grow .

Most people will. One of the other benefits to lighter, longer range batteries is that the cost of batteries will come down. By 2035 or so the second hand market in EVs will be thriving and prices should have come down such that they are available to anyone who wants one rather than being somewhat of a luxury as they are at the moment.

The main issue for ICE cars is not whether they will continue to run or be on the road, but how soon the curve makes them unviable for most people. The two key factors for ICE are ULEZ zones and availability and cost of fuel. As demand at forecourts decreases, so fewer forecourts will be available to sell petrol and diesel and of course economy of scale will start to disappear and costs of petrol and diesel will increase. There will be a tipping point where it just becomes too expensive to regularly run a diesel or petrol car routinely and it becomes the preserve of historic or classic vehicle clubs etc.

This may be years away, but then DVDs became mass media in about 2001. By 2011 global annual sales were around 6.1 billion. By 2021 that was down to 1.2 Billion. In another example Kodak used to dominate the world in camera technology and film. It invented the digital camera in 1975 and supplied sensors for pro digital cameras in the 1990s. 20 years later it was bankrupt.

 

[lazybloke]

Just passing through and pointing out the obvious . It sure beats covering eyes and ears and hoping nothing will change.

A strange quip.
If that's aimed at the doubters, you've got it the wrong way round.

The benefits & advantages of EVs are indeed obvious, yet a few are strangely unable or unwilling to empathise with those who see serious shortcomings; those shortcomings are a barrier to the phasing out of internal combustion engines.


Clearly, those who think EVs are "good enough" are the ones who are in denial.
Meanwhile, the doubters are doing everyone a favour; by highlighting the shortcomings they are creating demand for product improvement that will benefit everyone.

It is only by meeting the demands of the doubters that EVs will become good enough to replace ICE cars.

Doubters very much want change.

 

[Alex321]

A strange quip.
If that's aimed at the doubters, you've got it the wrong way round.

The benefits & advantages of EVs are indeed obvious, yet a few are strangely unable or unwilling to empathise with those who see serious shortcomings; those shortcomings are a barrier to the phasing out of internal combustion engines.


Clearly, those who think EVs are "good enough" are the ones who are in denial.
Meanwhile, the doubters are doing everyone a favour; by highlighting the shortcomings they are creating demand for product improvement that will benefit everyone.

It is only by meeting the demands of the doubters that EVs will become good enough to replace ICE cars.

Doubters very much want change.

Not all doubters think the way you do.

There are quite a few who are very much anti-EV, rather than hoping the issues with EVs will be solved.

 

[MrGrumpy]

Most people will. One of the other benefits to lighter, longer range batteries is that the cost of batteries will come down. By 2035 or so the second hand market in EVs will be thriving and prices should have come down such that they are available to anyone who wants one rather than being somewhat of a luxury as they are at the moment.

The main issue for ICE cars is not whether they will continue to run or be on the road, but how soon the curve makes them unviable for most people. The two key factors for ICE are ULEZ zones and availability and cost of fuel. As demand at forecourts decreases, so fewer forecourts will be available to sell petrol and diesel and of course economy of scale will start to disappear and costs of petrol and diesel will increase. There will be a tipping point where it just becomes too expensive to regularly run a diesel or petrol car routinely and it becomes the preserve of historic or classic vehicle clubs etc.

This may be years away, but then DVDs became mass media in about 2001. By 2011 global annual sales were around 6.1 billion. By 2021 that was down to 1.2 Billion. In another example Kodak used to dominate the world in camera technology and film. It invented the digital camera in 1975 and supplied sensors for pro digital cameras in the 1990s. 20 years later it was bankrupt.

The thing is we have no idea whatsoever when this massive shift will be. ICE cars I’m pretty sure will still be around in the next 15-20yrs .