Are we being forced to go electric?

[Alex321]

The thing is we have no idea whatsoever when this massive shift will be. ICE cars I’m pretty sure will still be around in the next 15-20yrs .

15, yes. 20, not so sure. It is only 7 years util the sale of new ICE cars will stop.

How many years after that before the cost of running them becomes unviable is hard to be sure, but I would expect it to be somewhere between 10-15 years after. And 20 years from now is in the middle of that range.

 

[MrGrumpy]

15, yes. 20, not so sure. It is only 7 years util the sale of new ICE cars will stop.

How many years after that before the cost of running them becomes unviable is hard to be sure, but I would expect it to be somewhere between 10-15 years after. And 20 years from now is in the middle of that range.

It’s all guess work , however I’m fairly sure I can still fill up between now and the end of this decade pretty easily .

They need to solve the leccy generation first though ! I can see that being a stumbling block !

 

[CXRAndy]

When the majority own an EV, you may well see ICE vehicles being increasingly charged for entering towns and cities, fuel pricing suddenly jumping up in prices. Stick being used instead of carrot

 

[cyberknight]

When the majority own an EV, you may well see ICE vehicles being increasingly charged for entering towns and cities, fuel pricing suddenly jumping up in prices. Stick being used instead of carrot

thats ok a i guess although if you dont live in an area with good public transport and cant afford the outlay for a EV those living close to the edge could have issues.

 

[Buck]

When the majority own an EV, you may well see ICE vehicles being increasingly charged for entering towns and cities, fuel pricing suddenly jumping up in prices. Stick being used instead of carrot

I agree. This is what the governments of the day have done. It’s the only way to get a societal shift. Persuade. Encourage. Insist. Legislate.

thats ok a i guess although if you dont live in an area with good public transport and cant afford the outlay for a EV those living close to the edge could have issues.

True. The car will become more of a luxury item and not for all. We will need to make adaptations to this both individually and as society.

 

[Pale Rider]

Hopefully the new denser battery will make it market, but as a follower of ebikes for about a dozen years I've lost count of the number of supposed leaps forward.

None ever saw production, which means density is the same now as when I bought my first lithium ion batteried ebike in 2010.

Tesla is credited in various articles as having the most dense batteries currently available, between 230-250wh per kilo, which is hardly spectacular.

My 500wh Bosch battery, which has been around for years, weighs 2.6kg.

 

[MrGrumpy]

When the majority own an EV, you may well see ICE vehicles being increasingly charged for entering towns and cities, fuel pricing suddenly jumping up in prices. Stick being used instead of carrot

I actually think everyone will be charged for driving into town whether it’s an ICE or an EV ! The lack of fuel duty will hurt everybody whom drives . What you drive will mean nothing by then.

 

[CXRAndy]

Hopefully the new denser battery will make it market, but as a follower of ebikes for about a dozen years I've lost count of the number of supposed leaps forward.

None ever saw production, which means density is the same now as when I bought my first lithium ion batteried ebike in 2010.

Tesla is credited in various articles as having the most dense batteries currently available, between 230-250wh per kilo, which is hardly spectacular.

My 500wh Bosch battery, which has been around for years, weighs 2.6kg.

Tesla use the best battery tech, but its no better than most of the big players in EV . What Tesla are leaders of, are efficiency. Most EVs have 2.7-3.5 miles/kW, Tesla are doing >4 miles per kW

 

[icowden]

I agree. This is what the governments of the day have done. It’s the only way to get a societal shift. Persuade. Encourage. Insist. Legislate.
True. The car will become more of a luxury item and not for all. We will need to make adaptations to this both individually and as society.

But that's part of the intent. Model 3 Teslas are set up to be robotaxis for example. The aim of this is that when Tesla finally get the Tesla to be full autonomous they will have a ready fleet of cars that owners can choose to monetise. If you aren't using the car between 9am and 5pm you can get it to go out and earn a crust as a taxi. Robotaxis should be a lot cheaper to use than conventional taxis (at least until the AI unionises and insists on holidays and sick pay).

 

[Buck]

You're conflating the government agenda with a supplier response.

It's valid but the catalyst will be the government plan for transport and Tesla's approach (inc. other providers) will be the response.

 

[Alex321]

I actually think everyone will be charged for driving into town whether it’s an ICE or an EV ! The lack of fuel duty will hurt everybody whom drives . What you drive will mean nothing by then.

Very probably.

Just as all these new motorway/dual carriageway 50 limits "to improve air quality" will still continue when virtually all traffic is electric.

 

[Pale Rider]

You're conflating the government agenda with a supplier response.

It's valid but the catalyst will be the government plan for transport and Tesla's approach (inc. other providers) will be the response.

That's true, only the government can force us to do anything, so the answer to the thread title is a simple 'yes'.

Would there be as many EVs on the market or would sales be rising were it not for ICE being legislated out of existence?

Almost certainly not, although the manufacturers must also be taking into account what is happening elsewhere in the world when they are deciding what to produce.

 

[lazybloke]

Not all doubters think the way you do.

There are quite a few who are very much anti-EV, rather than hoping the issues with EVs will be solved.

Many valid reasons have been given for being anti-EV.

If you haven't understood or recognised those, then you won't understand that EVs simply are not suitable for all, yet.

If you do own an EV now, then by definition you were not bothered by their limitations; so how can you possibly empathise with those for whom the limitations are a show-stopper?

 

[Alex321]

Many valid reasons have been given for being anti-EV.

True.

If you haven't understood or recognised those, then you won't understand that EVs simply are not suitable for all, yet.

What makes you think I might not have understood or recognised them?

If you do own an EV now, then by definition you were not bothered by their limitations; so how can you possibly empathise with those for whom the limitations are a show-stopper?

I don't own an EV now.

When either of our cars next needs replacing, there is a good chance we will get an EV, but that is likely to be a few years yet.

 

[icowden]

If you do own an EV now, then by definition you were not bothered by their limitations; so how can you possibly empathise with those for whom the limitations are a show-stopper?

It's usually because what they perceive as being a show-stopper is in their heads rather than reality, so we try and help them understand that an EV is not just another car. The way you drive it and fuel it requires a complete change of perspective.

The main limitation for the vast majority of people is cost. That's going to change by about 2032. For example, my daughter will probably want a car. I'm not able to afford a brand new efiat, and like most kids she will start with a second hand car. Looking at Car Giant, the cheapest EV would be £150 a month (it's a 2016 Nissan Leaf) with a good sized deposit whereas a petrol Fiat 500 = £102 a month. An e-Fiat would be around £300 a month with a hefty deposit.