Tour de France 2013 *spoilers*

[PpPete]

OK, here's a question for all you knowledgeable folks...
Pierre Roland, having abandoned GC ambitions this year is said to want the KOM. Has he any chance of regaining it or will he be thwarted by the GC podium contenders burning up the remaining lumps?

1. FROOME C. SKY 83 pts
2. QUINTANA ROJAS N. MOV 66 pts
3. NIEVE ITURRALDE M. EUS 53 pts
4. ROLLAND P. EUC 51 pts
5. KREUZIGER R. TST 28 pts
6. RODRIGUEZ OLIVER J. KAT 28 pts
7. PORTE R. SKY 28 pts

 

[Noodley]

Rolland has no chance.

 

[PpPete]

Rolland has no chance.

OK then, predictions for KOM?
I'm sure Froome has no ambitions for it, but has anyone added up the available points to see which might go for a break?

 

[smutchin]

There's a potential 106 points on offer in Friday's stage. Rolland's best/only chance will be to get in an early breakaway and mop up as many of those points as possible.

However, if Froome wins either/both of Thursday/Saturday's stages, that'll probably wrap it up for him.

 

[rich p]

Rolland has no chance. I think Froome will get it with an outside chance for Quintana if CF gifts him a win which he was happy to have done at Ventoux.
I say this with no idea of the points available.

 

[smutchin]

OK then, predictions for KOM?
I'm sure Froome has no ambitions for it, but has anyone added up the available points to see which might go for a break?

Two Cat 2 and a Cat 3 today, so potentially 44 points on offer. Rolland might get the early two climbs (28pts) but not the last one, I suspect.

Two Cat 2 on tomorrow's TT, which Froome will probably mop up by default, nabbing another 32pts.

Potentially 85pts on offer for the intermediate climbs on Thursday (1x HC, 3x Cat 2, 1x Cat 3), so Rolland needs to get in an early breakaway, but then there are 50pts for the stage winner, which he doesn't have a hope of getting.

Friday's stage has two early HC climbs, so that's another potential 50pts that Rolland could get. Plus another potential 56pts (2x Cat 1, 1x Cat 2) if the break is allowed to stay away all day.

Saturday has 72pts on offer for the intermediate climbs (1x Cat 1, 1x Cat 2, 3x Cat 3), plus another summit finish for 50pts.

Rolland's only hope is for Froome to concentrate on marking the other GC contenders and allowing the likes of Purito, Nieve, Gadret etc to go for the big stage wins on Thursday and Saturday. But the way Froome has been riding, can you see that as likely? And even less likely given the probability of Quintana and/or Contador attacking on those summit finishes.

Nieve might also decide he wants to fight Rolland for it and I think he looks a stronger bet.

 

[smutchin]

A few lumps and bumps today but nothing to frighten the horses. Will a break succeed or will Contador feel it's a stage to put Sky under some pressure because it's looking unlikely he can do so in the big hills.

Nice descent to finish. Could see Mollema and Contador scrapping for seconds? And maybe trying to put some distance on Quintana?

Can't see Froome having any difficulties today. But we said that on the first Sunday...

 

[User169]

Rolland has no chance. I think Froome will get it with an outside chance for Quintana if CF gifts him a win which he was happy to have done at Ventoux.
I say this with no idea of the points available.

Saw some decent odds this morning for Froome getting KOM if you fancy a wager!

 

[smutchin]

Best odds listed here are 29/13...
http://www.oddschecker.com/cycling/tour-de-france/king-of-the-mountains

Nieve almost looks worth an each-way bet though.

Talking of betting, does anyone know if Dan Lloyd actually put his each-way bet on Mollema at 400-1?

 

[rich p]

Saw some decent odds this morning for Froome getting KOM if you fancy a wager!

Hmmm, 6/4 favourite in most of those^^^.

 

[iLB]

http://instagram.com/p/btvLzyE6JC/

Pic by Kristof Ramon, Ten Dam's blood pipes. Dam, Dam.

 

[thom]

Froome & Brailsford faced the press yesterday.



If Wada has Sky's full training data and turned round to say, Sky are racing clean, would that be enough to stop the speculation ?

 

[deptfordmarmoset]

Froome & Brailsford faced the press yesterday.



If Wada has Sky's full training data and turned round to say, Sky are racing clean, would that be enough to stop the speculation ?

Speculation is the press's job and that won't stop. It would maybe go some way to more informed speculation. And just an impression I've been getting - very few current riders seem to be casting aspersions. It's riders from another era, journalists and disillusioned followers of cycling (who, let's face it, are entitled to be sceptical).

EDIT: A wee grammatical touch up, that's all!

 

[VamP]

Froome & Brailsford faced the press yesterday.



If Wada has Sky's full training data and turned round to say, Sky are racing clean, would that be enough to stop the speculation ?

No.

Because it's impossible to draw a definitive conclusion to that effect from power data.

 

[Beebo]

http://instagram.com/p/btvLzyE6JC/

Pic by Kristof Ramon, Ten Dam's blood pipes. Dam, Dam.