RideLondon-Surrey 100 (2015) Anyone?

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philk56

Guru
Location
WAy down under
I rather optimistically put down 7.5 hours and have an 8:33 start. Completely failed to coordinate with my friend, who I think put down 8 or 8.5 and doesn't start until 8:51 which must be in one of the last waves. So he'll have to go flat out to catch me up or I still can't decide if I'll have time to slow down and wait.

Regarding where to meet, in their email they recommend The Highway as the first suitable point, which is a straight wide road just before the Tower of London.
 

vickster

Legendary Member
Yeah, my concern if that's where there suggest, it'll be congested

I'm sure you'll be fine waiting for your friend and wouldn't you rather ride with him? It's unfair to expect him to tire himself out at the start if you planned to ride together IMO.

I'm fortunate that my friend isn't worried on time and isn't expecting to manage to do the full route. She'll probably have to wait for me again as I'm doing Leith and she isn't, she might skip Box too depending on how she feels :smile:

The last start time is 9am
 

sleaver

Veteran
as for how they work out the start times: they have tens of thousands of data points (age/sex/estimated time/actual time). It's very there are strong patterns that allow them to work out the actual time the rider is likely to take, which is probably never their estimated time.
What a load of brown smelly stuff.

Lets start with 'actual time'. How can you include that when some may never have done it before, some may have done the shorter distance last year minus two hills and the one who had done it the first year have had two years to progress to a mountain goat or have grown more love handles than all the handles in a tea pot factory. So there are to many unknown variables to RideLondon that make using that pointless.

Now for 'age'. Well, how many of us get passed by older riders? Probably everyone has so age has no bearing.

I'll get the popcorn, 'sex'. Come on then, lets have your explanation on how sex can define someones finishing time?

If that isn't enough for you, lets have an example:

Rider A - A male in his forties who has estimated 6 hours but completed the first RideLondon in 5h30.
Rider B - A female in her early thirties who has estimated 6 hours but completed the second RideLondon in 5h30

Knowing that one rider took their time (no where on the form to say that information), who is the quickest rider? Remember, 'there are strong patterns' ;) Without the key piece of information, you won't needs tens of thousands of data points so you can't fall back on that

Unless you can show the source of this information, it is all fiction.
 

Dogtrousers

Kilometre nibbler
I don't know why your're being so aggressive about this @sleaver. It's not necessary for them to predict individuals' finishing times, just work with general trends. I'm not saying this is how they work, but as someone who crunches numbers for a living I can see that it's not impossible that they work with predictive models. It's not actually how I'd go about it but then I don't have any background in organising mass cycling events.

Anyway, they might pull numbers from a hat. They'll never release info on the detail of how they choose riders or allocate start times etc, so it doesn't matter at all.
 

sleaver

Veteran
........but as someone who crunches numbers for a living.......
I'm sure that you have all the facts and figures available to make accurate models. No one here has all the facts so I've just asked, twice, for the source of the information because people are saying they know how it is done. I'm quite happy to be proved wrong if someone shows the source of the information.

I'm just bored of people complaining or commenting on the start when they don't know how times were allocated. I've got my time so I'm just going to go out and enjoy the day and it will take me however long it does.
 

vickster

Legendary Member
I'm just bored of people complaining or commenting on the start when they don't know how times were allocated. I've got my time so I'm just going to go out and enjoy the day and it will take me however long it does.

Some of us would have liked a bit more time. I'm still carrying injuries and having now waited nearly 2 years to do this, I wanted the best chance of finishing without doing myself further mischief! I should have enough time, but just wanted the cushion to feel more confident :smile: I'm not complaining though, at least I should get more sleep!

I don't care about my time, I just want to finish the whole course if at all possible
 

DaveReading

Don't suffer fools gladly (must try harder!)
Location
Reading, obvs
I don't care about my time, I just want to finish the whole course if at all possible

On that subject, I was a bit confused by the references to speeds and cut-off points in the Final Instructions booklet.

It says that an average speed of 11.75mph will get you round (just) in 8-and-a-half hours (simple arithmetic). But it goes on to say that anyone not arriving at Hampton Court (26 miles) by 11am will be pulled out. So a 9am starter would need to average 13mph to beat the cut-off.

How rigidly is that likely to be enforced? I'm in a late starting wave, so I don't expect to reach HC much before that time, and it would only take a puncture or mechanical on the way out of London to put me beyond it, even if my average speed would still have allowed me to finish the course by the 5:30pm deadline.
 

PK99

Legendary Member
Location
SW19
On that subject, I was a bit confused by the references to speeds and cut-off points in the Final Instructions booklet.

It says that an average speed of 11.75mph will get you round (just) in 8-and-a-half hours (simple arithmetic). But it goes on to say that anyone not arriving at Hampton Court (26 miles) by 11am will be pulled out. So a 9am starter would need to average 13mph to beat the cut-off.

How rigidly is that likely to be enforced? I'm in a late starting wave, so I don't expect to reach HC much before that time, and it would only take a puncture or mechanical on the way out of London to put me beyond it, even if my average speed would still have allowed me to finish the course by the 5:30pm deadline.

13 mph average to HC will be a doddle fo anyone with any hope of completing the route.

The closed road make a HUGE difference - no traffic lights, no slowing for junctions, no traffic in the way.

Most of my riding comes out at 12.5 +/-1 door to door average on an average ride length of around 50 miles. I did Olympic park to HC at an unstressed 19mph last year.

I'd guess the cut offs allow for the fact that the run to HC is the easiest part of the course and folks will be slower later both because of hills and fatigue.
 

vickster

Legendary Member
I don't know, but it's pretty flat to HC :smile: I think they expect you to start quicker and then slow down as breaks taken and you tire further on. It's got to be feasible even for a slower riders or there would have been lots of complaints in 2013 about people not having enough time

Cross posted with pk99. I can't maintain 19mph for long on the flat but I can do 16
 

philk56

Guru
Location
WAy down under
Sorry if I am giving the wrong impression, I am really looking forward to the ride but I know my friend is feeling under a bit of pressure to make sure he reaches Hampton Court by 11. I'm intending to try not to start of too quickly, although I know it will be tempting, and hopefully we'll meet up by the time we reach HC. I think he'll be fine and will surprise himself. I'm sure that the experience of cycling on closed roads will make a difference.
 
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srw

It's a bit more complicated than that...
Sorry if I am giving the wrong impression, I am really looking forward to the ride but I know my friend is feeling under a bit of pressure to make sure he reaches Hampton Court by 11.
See above for our experience last year. Absent major mechanicals and hold-ups, Hampton Court by 11 will be a doddle for anyone with a reasonable chance of finishing the whole thing in time.

Here are our splits from last year. Bear in mind this is for a tandem pair in the pissing rain with a good half-hour hold-up in Richmond Park and another 20 minutes at least at the loo stop after Hampton Court.

Split Time Of Day Time Diff min/km km/h
EST MILE 17 09:05:54 01:02:55 01:02:55 02:25 24.89
EST MILE 26 10:10:46 02:07:47 01:04:52 04:16 14.11
EST MILE 47 12:06:55 04:03:57 01:56:10 03:27 17.43
EST MILE 61 13:05:21 05:02:22 58:25 02:41 22.39
EST MILE 71 13:56:05 05:53:07 50:45 03:01 19.98
FINISH 15:03:32 07:00:34 01:07:27 02:45 21.94
 

sleaver

Veteran
There is only 1.25 MPH difference between the first 26 and last 74 miles where all the climbing basically is. If he is feeling under pressure to get to Hampton Court, isn't the other 74 miles the bigger problem?
 
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