Electric cars.. Nothing new

[icowden]

Perhaps you don't realise it but trains mostly stop at night. No problem for them getting to Paddington, 10 minute walk but in the middle of the night, not a chance. It's the reason they bother owning a car. He's looked for a car sharing scheme but none exists locally.

Fair enough. There is the Westminster Car Club which was launched in 2009 and is run by ZipCar.

There may well be 6000 residents with a EV but the population is over a quarter of a million. If you do the maths then if everyone wants to charge, it means 1 charging point per 100 residents.

Your best approximation would be that in a normal use case people are likely to need an over night charge between 2x and 3x per week. So the current 2500 chargers would service between 6000 and 7500 cars, and of course this excludes the 10% of Westminster who do have the ability to home charge. It also excludes those that can charge at work or at their destination.

Assume only a quarter of that number will have a car it's still a long way off. Of course I'm not even including people who drive to work (some still do) who will need to charge their cars ,so there are still a lot more charging places needed.

There are 124,000 households in Westminster, and in London generally only 54% of people own a car. So that gives us 62,000 households, so, yes, if they all went out and bought and EV there would be work to do but it is one of the best equipped boroughs in terms of EV charge points, and the installation of points is keeping pace with the growth in ownership with a consistent 3:1 ratio.

 

[classic33]

What an utterly pointless piece of "maths".

If there are only 6,000 EVs, then it is not remotely close to possible for all residents to want to charge at once.

Number of residents per charge point is completely irrelevant, it is number of EVs per charge point which matters.

So you are for some reason "assuming" that there are roughly ten times as many EVs as there actually are. How silly.

A similar pointless piece of maths results in something called TV Pickup.

I mean how many people would want to boil a kettle in the same three minute break? Then extend that to a greater demand, over a longer period for charging cars. It'd be daft to say that there'd not be a large demand for electric at any time of day. We have rush hours, morning and evening. Fairly predictable every day, and tends to increase in term time. People will want their vehicle to be ready for when they require them, not when someone else wants them to use them.

That's just how we're wired.

 

[icowden]

I mean how many people would want to boil a kettle in the same three minute break? Then extend that to a greater demand, over a longer period for charging cars. It'd be daft to say that there'd not be a large demand for electric at any time of day.

Of course, but in the case of the kettle the Grid has to respond to mass demand for a very very short period of time, which it finds very difficult to do, whereas with EV charging it is responding to mass demand over a long period of time, which is exactly how it is designed to work. That's a predictable and stable model so the Grid can ensure a steady and stable energy supply.

We have rush hours, morning and evening. Fairly predictable every day, and tends to increase in term time. People will want their vehicle to be ready for when they require them, not when someone else wants them to use them.

But people don't rush to refuel their petrol cars first thing in the morning.

If you take the term time example, my kids are back at school next Thursday and I'll probably charge the car up on Wednesday night. That charge will probably do me until Saturday or Sunday night depending on what we do at the weekend. That charge on Sunday night will probably last me until Thursday or Friday, and then carry me through to Tuesday or so and so on.

An interesting experiment available from Octopus is that they tell you which nights are likely to be the best to charge if you only want to be using renewables. This in turn helps focus demand when there is excess capacity from renewables (wind usually) to make better use of that which can't be easily stored. Not only that but they also run a scheme where you can get money off your bill if you reduce your usage for a particular hour or two (specified in advance). SO by delaying dinner and putting off a cup of tea, or turning off some computers etc, you can save a bit of cash.

There are loads of ways to manipulate consumers to balance out energy requirements.

 

[classic33]

Fair enough. There is the Westminster Car Club which was launched in 2009 and is run by ZipCar.

Your best approximation would be that in a normal use case people are likely to need an over night charge between 2x and 3x per week. So the current 2500 chargers would service between 6000 and 7500 cars, and of course this excludes the 10% of Westminster who do have the ability to home charge. It also excludes those that can charge at work or at their destination.

There are 124,000 households in Westminster, and in London generally only 54% of people own a car. So that gives us 62,000 households, so, yes, if they all went out and bought and EV there would be work to do but it is one of the best equipped boroughs in terms of EV charge points, and the installation of points is keeping pace with the growth in ownership with a consistent 3:1 ratio.

Does all the above take into account that VED becomes payable on all electric vehicles next year, the recent (April) 1,800% increase by City of Westminster council on parking charges for EV's alone. With a similar increase said to be coming next year? How will those three things affect ownership.

Will workplace charging continue when the incentive is removed next year. I doubt it some how.
Sales of electric vehicles have dropped for the seventh month in a row, due according to the industry, the incentives being withdrawn. They want purchasing incentives to continue, and don't expect sales to rise without them.

City of Westminster council puts private car ownership at 50% of the population, 204,236 in 2021, not per household.
And in 2023 they had a total of 2,693 charging points within their boundaries.
How many of those were private, how many public?

As is often the case it's a simple case of I've managed to do it, everyone else should have no problem doing what I've managed.

 

[icowden]

Does all the above take into account that VED becomes payable on all electric vehicles next year, the recent (April) 1,800% increase by City of Westminster council on parking charges for EV's alone. With a similar increase said to be coming next year? How will those three things affect ownership.

Who knows?

Will workplace charging continue when the incentive is removed next year. I doubt it some how.

It'll depend on the workplace.

Sales of electric vehicles have dropped for the seventh month in a row, due according to the industry, the incentives being withdrawn. They want purchasing incentives to continue, and don't expect sales to rise without them.

Well of course, because they are so expensive. The second hand market is now starting to boom and will get bigger and bigger. Battery tech is improving so the cars are going to get cheaper.

City of Westminster council puts private car ownership at 50% of the population, 204,236 in 2021, not per household.

Sorry if you live in Westminster and have more than one car in your household you are probably too rich to care.

And in 2023 they had a total of 2,693 charging points within their boundaries.
How many of those were private, how many public?

They wouldn't list private ones. How would they know that they were there?

 

[classic33]

Of course, but in the case of the kettle the Grid has to respond to mass demand for a very very short period of time, which it finds very difficult to do, whereas with EV charging it is responding to mass demand over a long period of time, which is exactly how it is designed to work. That's a predictable and stable model so the Grid can ensure a steady and stable energy supply.

But people don't rush to refuel their petrol cars first thing in the morning.

The grid doesn't have the capacity to meet expected demand. They reckon 15 years before they'd be able to match demand, if electric vehicle uptake continued at the rate it was doing in March last year. Demand has however dropped, so maybe that's one good thing.

Having worked in a motorway services, the number of people pulling off to fill up at certain times can be chaotic. Especially if there's a holdup in their direction of travel, or when they've reopened after a fuel delivery. No vehicles at all whilst the tanks are being refilled. So the drivers park up, waiting. Passengers may even go into the services. I used to pass five filling stations every morning, there'd always be a queue waiting to fill.

 

[classic33]

Who knows?

Another unknown in the chain.

It'll depend on the workplace.

Or more than likely, what the workplace is paid to let you charge at work.
They don't allow you to fill up at work normally, because there's no cash incentive to do so.

Well of course, because they are so expensive. The second hand market is now starting to boom and will get bigger and bigger. Battery tech is improving so the cars are going to get cheaper.

Battery tech hasn't really moved on in the last 100 years. See the first post.

Sorry if you live in Westminster and have more than one car in your household you are probably too rich to care.

And what of those that need only the one. Do they suffer because some have more than one. Doesn't car ownership come with a certain responsibility, even if they happen to be electric?

They wouldn't list private ones. How would they know that they were there?

They do list private ones. Their own site takes you to zapmap, from where they get their figures.

 

[Alex321]

A similar pointless piece of maths results in something called TV Pickup.

I mean how many people would want to boil a kettle in the same three minute break?

Lots of people.

Then extend that to a greater demand, over a longer period for charging cars. It'd be daft to say that there'd not be a large demand for electric at any time of day. We have rush hours, morning and evening. Fairly predictable every day, and tends to increase in term time. People will want their vehicle to be ready for when they require them, not when someone else wants them to use them.

That's just how we're wired.

I'm not sure what point you are making here.

There is plenty of capacity, particularly at the most common time for charging EVs.

People aren't going to suddenly all going to want to charge their cars together at a TV break.

There will be a small surge at the end of rush hour, as people get home and plug in their cars. It won't be massive, because many will have programmed their chargers to charge during off-peak times, for cheaper electricity.

 

[Alex321]

The grid doesn't have the capacity to meet expected demand.

That isn't what National Grid say, so perhaps you should impart your greater knowledge to them before they get caught out.

https://www.nationalgrid.com/storie...ries/can-grid-cope-extra-demand-electric-cars

 

[Alex321]

Sales of electric vehicles have dropped for the seventh month in a row, due according to the industry, the incentives being withdrawn. They want purchasing incentives to

I don't know where you are getting your figures from, but they don't seem to bear much relationship to reality
https://heycar.com/uk/news/electric-cars-statistics-and-projections

https://www.smmt.co.uk/vehicle-data/car-registrations/

 

[classic33]

That isn't what National Grid say, so perhaps you should impart your greater knowledge to them before they get caught out.

https://www.nationalgrid.com/storie...ries/can-grid-cope-extra-demand-electric-cars

Perhaps it would have been better if you'd included the second part of that.
"if electric vehicle uptake continued at the rate it was doing in March last year."

 

[vickster]

Perhaps you don't realise it but trains mostly stop at night. No problem for them getting to Paddington, 10 minute walk but in the middle of the night, not a chance. It's the reason they bother owning a car. He's looked for a car sharing scheme but none exists locally.
There may well be 6000 residents with a EV but the population is over a quarter of a million. If you do the maths then if everyone wants to charge, it means 1 charging point per 100 residents. Assume only a quarter of that number will have a car it's still a long way off. Of course I'm not even including people who drive to work (some still do) who will need to charge their cars ,so there are still a lot more charging places needed.

Not to mention all the Uber and black cab drivers who may well need to charge their cars during the working day of which there are a lot on the roads in Central London at anyone time day and night. Even where I am in outer London it seems to be mostly taxis (and some vans) using the on street chargers

 

[Alex321]

Perhaps it would have been better if you'd included the second part of that.
"if electric vehicle uptake continued at the rate it was doing in March last year."

Wouldn't have made much difference. That statement was made by National Grid in December, so quite a few months after March last year.

And while uptake has increased since March last year, it seems not enough to make the Grid think they can't cope.

 

[ianrauk]

Even where I am in outer London it seems to be mostly taxis (and some vans) using the on street chargers

In my neck of SE London, this is my experience too.

 

[middle of the road]

What an utterly pointless piece of "maths".

If there are only 6,000 EVs, then it is not remotely close to possible for all residents to want to charge at once.

Number of residents per charge point is completely irrelevant, it is number of EVs per charge point which matters.


So you are for some reason "assuming" that there are roughly ten times as many EVs as there actually are. How silly.

Isn't it the plan to increase the number of EV's? Have I missed something? Charging points first, change the public's view on EV's second. The second will follow from the first.