Covid vaccine.

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I work in the NHS and although encouraged, the flu jab is entirely voluntary.
It shouldn't be.
 

PK99

Legendary Member
Location
SW19
A little basic arithmetic shows that this effect must be small. What do you suppose is the likelihood of a given person dying randomly of something else in a month?

The fact that excess deaths are running above official covid deaths shows beyond any reasonable doubt that numbers of deaths are roughly correct whatever the methodology used.

,
 

bigjim

Legendary Member
Location
Manchester. UK
The ONS data you have literally just referred to as "dreaded dodgy, scare them witless, graphs"?
Well then you have my apologies because I admit I didn't even glance at the graphs. I'm sick of them to be honest. Still the data from the ONS quoted stands. It makes the deaths figures everybody keeps quoting look decidedly dodgy IMO.
 

roubaixtuesday

self serving virtue signaller
Well then you have my apologies because I admit I didn't even glance at the graphs. I'm sick of them to be honest. Still the data from the ONS quoted stands. It makes the deaths figures everybody keeps quoting look decidedly dodgy IMO.

Thank you for the apology, I do appreciate it.

I don't really know what you mean by being sick of graphs.

The ONS figures on overall excess mortality make it abundantly clear the death figures are an underestimate rather than an overestimate if anything. Of course, there will always be some uncertainty.
 

bigjim

Legendary Member
Location
Manchester. UK
Thank you for the apology, I do appreciate it.

I don't really know what you mean by being sick of graphs.

The ONS figures on overall excess mortality make it abundantly clear the death figures are an underestimate rather than an overestimate if anything. Of course, there will always be some uncertainty.
Every time I open a paper or switch on the news we seem to be bombarded by graphs. Boris's chums when challenged by Graham Stringer the MP said they didn't realise that their graphs would contribute to a fear agenda.Hmmm. Also their graph figures were debunked the same day. I can't find in the ONS website a figure anywhere for actual deaths from Covid. With no separation, how can we ascertain how dangerous this virus is? SAGE actually issued a message to government in March that the fear factor needed to be ramped up. I'm guilty of questioning politicians and their non-independent advisers. I think that is a healthy approach rather than just accept what we are fed. One of my kids is a nurse and another a doctor. I tend to hear the front line stuff. When NHS staff are told that they could be struck off if they speak to the media I have to wonder. Our family tend to have contact with people in the medical field. A surgeon who cannot work but his ICU ward was 3 quarters empty at the height with no Covid cases. A GP who will not have this vaccine and will not give it to her children. A scientist in an NHS lab who has sent tests back as they were not fit for purpose especially as they were being asked to defer to a positive result. I could go on.
I'm not sure about your underestimate comment but when I get chance I will look again unless you can clarify to save me a job. Haartley Brewer on Talk radio challenged, I think it was Hancock. A cabinet minister anyway. She quotes actual Covid deaths on under healthy under 65s as 300 and total actual deaths from Covid as 1500ish. She had these figures in front of her from, if memory serves, NHS England. The minister did not disagree.
 

roubaixtuesday

self serving virtue signaller
With no separation, how can we ascertain how dangerous this virus is?

The total number of excess deaths.

That gives an independent check - how many more people have died than would in a normal year.

The excess deaths correlate to the Wave 1, and now wave 2 of the disease, and a numerically slightly larger than the official death toll. Directly from ONS:

1605282468223.png


If you want an independent source, "Independent SAGE" - is a group of independent scientists set up to provide independent scientific analysis. Chaired by David King, a predecessor to Vallance. They do a weekly briefing, and have been consistently ahead of the actual SAGE.

https://www.independentsage.org/weekly-briefing-13-november-2020/

There's an awful lot of other points in your post, so I won't try to address them all, but I would say that JHB is not a reliable source for medical information (I'd say the same about any political journalist).
 

roubaixtuesday

self serving virtue signaller
This thread seems to have gone off on a tangent

You're right. I'll stop.
 

newfhouse

Resolutely on topic

bigjim

Legendary Member
Location
Manchester. UK
In which period?


It’s not a fact simply because JHB says it on the radio. Given her track record on other matters I remain sceptical.

This summary may be helpful.
https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopula...ndandwalesprovisional/weekending30october2020
It was a quote. It's there for all to see if you look for it. As I said the minister did not disagree. The ONS doesn't seem to show from Covid. I might have a dig around for it. Got a house full of grandkids at the moment. Chaos.
 

srw

It's a bit more complicated than that...
The ONS doesn't seem to show from Covid.
You don't need to dig around for it. It's in the post you've just replied to.

Here's what that link says:
  • Of the deaths registered in Week 44, 1,379 mentioned “novel coronavirus (COVID-19)”, accounting for 12.7% of all deaths in England and Wales; this is an increase of 401 deaths compared with Week 43 (when there were 978 deaths involving COVID-19, accounting for 9.1% of all deaths).
  • Of the 1,379 deaths that involved COVID-19, 1,196 had this recorded as the underlying cause of death (86.7%); of the 1,922 deaths that involved Influenza and Pneumonia, 289 had this recorded as the underlying cause (15.0%).
  • [...]
  • Overall, there were 1,258 deaths involving COVID-19 in England in Week 44; the number of deaths involving COVID-19 increased in all of the English regions, with the North West having the largest number (445 deaths).
  • In Wales, the number of deaths involving COVID-19 increased from 65 deaths (Week 43) to 121 deaths (Week 44), while the total number of deaths in Week 44 was 96 deaths higher than the five-year average
 
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