COVID Vaccine !

[mjr]

That graph implies 85ish% needed, doesn't it? Not 73%

 

[Ajax Bay]

As one who falls into your category of "sad category of people who have rational "concerns about their health or other drug interactions", your comment is an insult, nothing less.

Sorry you took it that way. I described the category as 'sad'. Sad because they "have rational concerns about their health or other drug interactions" and therefore entirely sensibly would be advised by their doctor not to be vaccinated. And therefore not have the protection vaccination affords, so "sad", nothing more.

 

[classic33]

Building on some of the figures above and looking forward to herd immunity kicking in.
If we take 73% as the percentage of the population which need to be immune before that's achieved. With a UK population of 62M that's 45M
A reasonably supported estimate is that 20% of the population have 'had' COVID-19, a good proportion asymptomatic and/or not tested (12M).
Since there will be overlap (ie people who've been infected, knowingly or not, who then get vaccinated and another element who had been infected but whose antibodies have dropped below protective level) of, say, 4M, once we've vaccinated 37M (first or both doses), we'll be over the 73%. (NB 5+M fewer if we exclude the 8M under 10s from the calculation.)
From one of my posts above, if the UK programme continues on plan, we should have 32M vaccinated by end April (assumes 400,000 a day from 6 March split half and half (1st/2nd dose)).
So 10 May to hit 37M and expectations of (effective) herd immunity. (NB 15 days quicker if we exclude the 8M under-10s from the calculation.)
Caveats: Depends on
= vaccination programme continues at pace (300,000 daily rising to 400,000 by 6 Mar, and maintained, 7-day averages)
= how effective the vaccine is (we hope 90-95%)
= how infectious the viral strain is (come May) - factors into 'R' and NB it's going to be a lovely May (well last year it was )
= restriction measures reducing R - these measures will have been progressively revised across the UK by then
assumes vaccines stop person transmitting (as well as getting infected with symptoms).
Copied from my previous post:
View attachment 570009

That figure is unknown, at present. Are you just plucking figures out of thin air to support your theories.
"The proportion of the population that must be vaccinated against COVID-19 to begin inducing herd immunity is not known."
Taken from
https://www.who.int/news-room/q-a-d...ercentage of people who,immunity is not known.

 

[Ajax Bay]

That graph implies 85ish% needed, doesn't it? Not 73%

Only if R = 4.5 with the new variant and ?complete relaxation of restrictions. (see caveat list)

 

[Ajax Bay]

That figure is unknown, at present. Are you just plucking figures out of thin air to support your theories.
"The proportion of the population that must be vaccinated against COVID-19 to begin inducing herd immunity is not known."
Taken from
https://www.who.int/news-room/q-a-d...ercentage of people who,immunity is not known.

Absolutely: the figure is unknown. That's why I said "If" as in "If we take 73% as the percentage of the population which need to be immune before that's achieved." 73% lines up with R=3 on the graph. I sincerely hope that with all the nation's privations this year so far R will be well below 3 by May!!!
Less and it'll be sooner; more and it'll be later. For a disease which is much less transmissible than, for example measles, clever people (can't find where I got the graph from immediately - I did have look before posting) can do the sums - and the range is shown on the graph.
The figure is also not the same for all communities: that's the point. But every community WILL have a figure. You choose a figure and I can do the sums for you.👍 Give me a range, even!

 

[classic33]

Sorry you took it that way. I described the category as 'sad'. Sad because they "have rational concerns about their health or other drug interactions" and therefore entirely sensibly would be advised by their doctor not to be vaccinated. And therefore not have the protection vaccination affords, so "sad", nothing more.

I've already been told I'd not be allowed it. Which doesn't quite tie in with the other post about having been given May as the earliest possible.

That came from a seperate source, not local health care, who also advised me twice to get the flu jab. Something else that can't be given. Concerns by medically trained people, not me, over the possible side effects.

 

[Ajax Bay]

I can't have it anyway, but that's the earliest given for CEV.
. . .
I've already been told I'd not be allowed it.

I've not given you a 'like' for that: bummer.
I thought CEV (who CAN have it) were Group 6, anyway, so early March.

 

[lane]

CEV are group 4 along with the over 70s.

"At risk" are group 6 and not very well specified but last I saw I think there were 8 million of them so they need adding in before the under 65s are done, which might make quite a difference to when some people get the vaccination.

 

[lane]

Well according to what I have just looked at 12m groups 1 to 4 supposed to be done by mid February

the over 65 2.8m

Then at risk (underlining heath conditions not CEV) 4.3m

So 19m before they start on the under 65s

Then 7m to get all the over 50s complete

 

[kingrollo]

It's when Boris gets bored of staying in.

 

[Ajax Bay]

Not authoritative:
https://www.itv.com/news/2021-01-06...of-the-coronavirus-jab-with-our-daily-tracker
"The vaccine will be distributed to these groups in the following order, according to the list drawn up by the JCVI. In brackets is the estimated number of people in each group in the UK:

1 - Residents in a care home for older adults, and their carers (0.8M)
2 - Those aged 80 and over, and frontline health and social care workers (a total of 7.1M: 3.3M over 80s, 2.4M healthcare workers, 1.4M social care workers)
3 - Those aged 75 and over (2.3M)
4 - Those aged 70 and over and clinically extremely vulnerable individuals (3.2M)
Sub-total = 13.4M (target by 15 Mar)
5 - Those aged 65 and over (2.9M)
6 - All individuals aged 16 to 64 with underlying health conditions which put them at higher risk of serious disease and mortality (7.3M)
(and includes unpaid carers who are in receipt of Carer’s Allowance or are the main carer of an elderly or disabled person whose welfare may be at risk if the carer contracted Covid-19)
7 - Those aged 60 and over (1.8M)
8 - Those aged 55 years and over (2.4M)
9 - Those aged 50 years of age and over (2.8M)"

Bit surprised at how big Group 6 is (7.3M (ITV) - I have seen and used 2.2M - a fair bit less). But I note that the (ITV estimate) Groups 7-9 are all much smaller than my figures (see graph in post above for actual UK population numbers in the 5 year age ranges - assume the balance is represented in Groups 2 and 6 (the sums roughly add up).
The BBC says the Group 6 figure is (only) 1.2M !!

https://assets.publishing.service.g...-covid-19-vaccination-30-dec-2020-revised.pdf
lists the JCVI main risk groups identified of the underlying health conditions increase the risk of morbidity and mortality from COVID-19. and therefore inclusion in Group 6.

 

[lane]

Don't know if this is authoritative or not - but it is where I got my figures.

https://www.health.org.uk/publications/long-reads/the-covid-19-vaccine-who-gets-it-first

However it is different to yours.

For example in my figures "All individuals aged 16 to 64 with underlying health conditions" is only 4.3m where as yours is 7.3m. I thought that I had seen circa 8m for that group previously. However I don't think they have yet worked out who is in that group - which is poor in my opinion given they have had nearly a year to do so. This is certainly not as transparent as it could be. Then we have random people being vaccinated out of order.

 

[Ajax Bay]

I agree - there seems to be no authoritative set of figures for the numbers in each group (and I have looked looked!). I'm close to convinced there cannot be 7.3M in Group 6 (the ITV figure). I had 2.2M gleaned from ?somewhere a week ago. Your link has it at 4.3M. The BBC says it's 1.2M. All in all: quite a wide speed.
This gives the 'real' 2019 population figures (released in June 2020):
https://www.statista.com/statistics/281174/uk-population-by-age/

 

[lane]

@Ajax Bay the link you provide includes chronic respiratory disease, including chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD), cystic fibrosis and severe asthma in the list of underlining health conditions. However as i have noted previously these are shielding groups and (AFAIU) therefore also CEV. So I don't think this has been properly thought through and hence we don't know actual numbers. When it comes to it I would also expect to see inconstancy in who gets vaccinated in each group as there is no database and it be down to a doctor or admin person making lots of individual decision based on not very clear guidance.

https://www.health.org.uk/publications/long-reads/the-covid-19-vaccine-who-gets-it-first

 

[lane]

Also I am sure that no one knows how many are in group 6 who will be vaccinated in groups 1-5. When shielding was introduced Doctors had to go through records manually and compile a list and there were many inconsistencies and outright mistakes.