COVID Vaccine !

[SpokeyDokey]

Still doing v.well on the doses/100 people index:

 

[mjr]

I am optimistic that the clear target of all those in Groups 1-4 to be offered a vaccine by 15 Feb WILL be hit. (I think you must mean 'end of Feb as the slip date)

"offered" is a weasel word there, as pointed out on BBC More or Less, and was not in the 15 Feb target originally, was it? If the rephrasing is allowed, expect a mass mailshot of appointment letters on that date to allow yet another testing-style "Mission Accomplished!" banner announcement.

Comments:
1) We don't know what the refusal or can't be bothered rate is - 20%? - that'd be 3M less so 12M actually given.

Equating refusal with "can't be bothered" seems extremely insulting to those who refuse or are refused vaccination due to concerns about their health or other drug interactions or other reasons which few would disagree with. I already know someone who has been turned away due to flu-like symptoms. They intend to rebook when recovered: they can be bothered and it is crass to imply otherwise.

 

[nickyboy]

"offered" is a weasel word there, as pointed out on BBC More or Less, and was not in the 15 Feb target originally, was it? If the rephrasing is allowed, expect a mass mailshot of appointment letters on that date to allow yet another testing-style "Mission Accomplished!" banner announcement.


Equating refusal with "can't be bothered" seems extremely insulting to those who refuse or are refused vaccination due to concerns about their health or other drug interactions or other reasons which few would disagree with. I already know someone who has been turned away due to flu-like symptoms. They intend to rebook when recovered: they can be bothered and it is crass to imply otherwise.

20% is the number (actually its 23%) based on independent polling. However, I haven't seen an age breakdown of this. Suspect older folk would be keener. You can see that in the "reasons" for not getting vaccinated which included "not high risk group" and "too busy", neither of which apply to old folk.

The good news is that UK is one of the most pro-vaccination countries in the world at 77%. I recall only China at 80% was higher. France was at about 30%

 

[lane]

I agree that daily delivery of first doses will surely fall from about 3 Mar as all those who received their first dose from 20 Dec onwards 'need' their second.
I do not discount the possibility that, based on the science of course, the 12 weeks may be extended. If at the 8 week gap point antibody levels remain as high as they had been found to be after 4 weeks, then there's clearly a case to be made for giving a million a second dose at 12 weeks and another million a 4 week extension. I would be amazed if the data capture programme was not ready to roll. The first cohort who were given a dose after 20 Dec have just hit the 4 week point and a lot of NHS staff are in that cohort so testing will be logistically easy. There will be a communications challenge with that, but the JCVI and MRHA were pretty robust with the '12 week gap' decision and so they have the palmares. We (the UK) is brilliantly served by those groups (and a side shout out to UK's superlative genomic capability, effort and honesty).
I am optimistic that the clear target of all those in Groups 1-4 to be offered a vaccine by 15 Feb WILL be hit. (I think you must mean 'end of Feb as the slip date)
Comments:
1) We don't know what the refusal or can't be bothered rate is - 20%? - that'd be 3M less so 12M actually given.
2) Assumes supplies of the vaccine are not interrupted by 'events, dear boy, events'.
Still need to get the daily rate consistently up above 300,000.
Has anyone suggested that all over 50s might be given a first dose by Easter (4 Apr)?
There's about 6M in Groups 5 and 6 combined: 20 days? So by 6 Mar. About the time the second doses will need to be started.
Hope your mother's Boston date comes off.

Correct I did mean end of Feb as the slip date

Don't know if anyone specifically mentioned 4th April for over 50s now you come to mention it. I thought that was the mood music from Boris - back to normal at Easter. In fact "Have Christmas at Easter". Read yesterday they are now meeting to see how much mixing will be allowed at Easter!

 

[Ajax Bay]

I said: "We don't know what the refusal or can't be bothered rate is"

Equating refusal with "can't be bothered" seems extremely insulting to those who refuse or are refused vaccination due to concerns about their health or other drug interactions or other reasons which few would disagree with. I already know someone who has been turned away due to flu-like symptoms. They intend to rebook when recovered: they can be bothered and it is crass to imply otherwise.

As you can see I did not "equate refusal with "can't be bothered" ": they are clearly different (though there may be an overlap). I can also see how you could read that as me equating the two categories: it was not my thought or intent. It would be better phrased: "We don't know what the refusal or can't be bothered rates are, combined."
You're absolutely right: I did not include the sad category of people who have rational "concerns about their health or other drug interactions". Any idea what sort of percentage or numbers we're talking about? Add some value, here.
People who have transient illness (you gave an example) will as you say rebook - I do not categorise them as 'refusers', and nor will the stats, and your aggressive assertion that I've implied that is itself 'crass' imho. That illness maybe COVID-19. Clearly we don't want symptomatic people to come to a vaccination centre. People are not stupid.
Do you think some will fall into the "can't be bothered" category (dressed up as something else perhaps)? @nickyboy gives you some pointers above

 

[lane]

Vaccine supplies to the north-east and Yorkshire will be halved next week, mainly to allow other regions to catch up with the progress it has been making, the Health Service Journal reports.

In its story, which it attributes to well-placed sources, the HSJ says this will mean around 100,000 doses will be available for vaccination centres in the region run by GPs, where most vaccinations are taking place - down from around 200,000 this week.

The HSJ says people have been told “the main reason is that large parts of the north-east and Yorkshire have vaccinated a greater percentage of their population than other regions, including very many of the over 80s, meaning they are more quickly moving on to groups under 80”.

 

[lane]

Bit OT for this thread but Boris not ruling not restrictions until summer. Might be a case of "have Easter at Christmas", and have "Christmas at Christmas"...sometime

 

[Ajax Bay]

You're right: Off topic. There's another thread for general COVID-19 stuff. There will be restrictions through till the summer, so it'd be disingenuous for the PM to say otherwise.

 

[nickyboy]

I said: "We don't know what the refusal or can't be bothered rate is"

As you can see I did not "equate refusal with "can't be bothered" ": they are clearly different (though there may be an overlap). I can also see how you could read that as me equating the two categories: it was not my thought or intent. It would be better phrased: "We don't know what the refusal or

can't be bothered rates are, combined."
You're absolutely right: I did not include the sad category of people who have rational "concerns about their health or other drug interactions". Any idea what sort of percentage or numbers we're talking about? Add some value, here.
People who have transient illness (you gave an example) will as you say rebook - I do not categorise them as 'refusers', and nor will the stats, and your aggressive assertion that I've implied that is itself 'crass' imho. That illness maybe COVID-19. Clearly we don't want symptomatic people to come to a vaccination centre. People are not stupid.
Do you think some will fall into the "can't be bothered" category (dressed up as something else perhaps)? @nickyboy gives you some pointers above

Here's the linky to the IPSOS polling I was trying to remember

U.S. and U.K. are optimistic indicators for COVID-19 vaccination uptake | Ipsos

And interesting info on the reasons people gave as to why they didn't want to be vaccinated...and how startling the differences are between countries and what that might mean in terms of how and when the virus is brought under control internationally

Clue: don't be going to your holiday home in the Dordogne any time soon

 

[C R]

Here's the linky to the IPSOS polling I was trying to remember

U.S. and U.K. are optimistic indicators for COVID-19 vaccination uptake | Ipsos

And interesting info on the reasons people gave as to why they didn't want to be vaccinated...and how startling the differences are between countries and what that might mean in terms of how and when the virus is brought under control internationally

Clue: don't be going to your holiday home in the Dordogne any time soon

The predominance of anti vax attitudes in France and Germany is startling, but does match the popularity of homeopathy and other woo "therapies". I could never understand why those things are so popular there.

 

[Milkfloat]

My Indian colleagues have just told me of a fire at the world's biggest Covid vaccine supplier who are making the AZ vaccine that we all rely on. It is now clear after initial confusion that the Covid vaccine will not be affected, but it did make me think how badly supplies could be affected by problems in the supply chain. I think we only have one or two bottling plants in the UK, a problem there could cause the whole system to grind to a halt.

 

[Venod]

Vaccine supplies to the north-east and Yorkshire will be halved next week, mainly to allow other regions to catch up with the progress it has been making, the Health Service Journal reports.

This seems a bit strange, have other regions received less of the vaccine than North East and Yorkshire or are they just slower administering it, surely the best solution is to get the other regions working more efficiently and let the North East carry on, the quicker its rolled out the better.

 

[mjr]

As you can see I did not "equate refusal with "can't be bothered" ": they are clearly different (though there may be an overlap). I can also see how you could read that as me equating the two categories: it was not my thought or intent. It would be better phrased: "We don't know what the refusal or can't be bothered rates are, combined."

I can see how you may have meant something different to how I read it. Thanks for clarifying.

You're absolutely right: I did not include the sad category of people who have rational "concerns about their health or other drug interactions". Any idea what sort of percentage or numbers we're talking about? Add some value, here.

No and it is currently tedious to check and I am busy. As the UK used the emergency process, the Patient Information Leaflets don't seem to be in the usual places and formats yet, so it looks like checking the clinical notes for each one and then looking up the various components mentioned as potentially giving rise to contraindications. For the BioNTech one, that includes PEG and sensitivity to that is an active research topic, while for the Oxford one, it includes E433 Polysorbate 80 which a few people seem to be hypersensitive to and it's an ingredient that really sets the anti-vaxxers off... but that's a different topic.

People who have transient illness (you gave an example) will as you say rebook - I do not categorise them as 'refusers', and nor will the stats,

Are you sure? I did not find the current methodology on https://www.gov.uk/government/collections/covid-19-vaccination-programme or linked pages but I am fairly sure that even temporary refusal is usually counted as refusal in other vaccination stats collections until such time that they are actually vaccinated.

and your aggressive assertion that I've implied that is itself 'crass' imho.

Well, my obvious interpretation of the phrasing was very offensive!

Do you think some will fall into the "can't be bothered" category (dressed up as something else perhaps)?

I think a few may, but it doesn't seem to show up high in the reasons in the Ipsos survey linked earlier (top reasons were side-effects, effectiveness, low perceived risk from covid and general opposition to vaccination), or in the OCEANS II research https://www.cambridge.org/core/jour...ey-oceans-ii/C30FDB5C3D87123F28E351FDAAD5351A

Where did you get the idea that it was a significant factor?

 

[vickster]

My Indian colleagues have just told me of a fire at the world's biggest Covid vaccine supplier who are making the AZ vaccine that we all rely on. It is now clear after initial confusion that the Covid vaccine will not be affected, but it did make me think how badly supplies could be affected by problems in the supply chain. I think we only have one or two bottling plants in the UK, a problem there could cause the whole system to grind to a halt.

There was concern about flooding at a vaccine plant in Wales

 

[mjr]

My Indian colleagues have just told me of a fire at the world's biggest Covid vaccine supplier who are making the AZ vaccine that we all rely on. It is now clear after initial confusion that the Covid vaccine will not be affected, but it did make me think how badly supplies could be affected by problems in the supply chain. I think we only have one or two bottling plants in the UK, a problem there could cause the whole system to grind to a halt.

Yes, 5 dead but the vaccine production unaffected: https://www.swissinfo.ch/eng/reuter...-by-deadly-indian-fire--company-says/46306504 :/

This is an aspect where gov.uk's tactic of ordering different vaccines is the correct decision (and used by most governments).

The bioreactor production used for the Oxford vaccine is planned to make 2bn doses by the end of 2021 - which is OK and should allow for some mishaps, but there are 7½bn people and while not everyone will need vaccinating, it'll take much more than 2bn to stamp out this bug.

Vaccine storage facilities are more likely to become targets for terrorists and thieves.