COVID Vaccine !

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Ajax Bay

Guru
Location
East Devon
I trust the system to do its level best. The GP Surgeries are sending out the letters/communications.
Agree there are overlaps and sub-sets (eg CEV elements with ailments listed in the JCVI Gp 6 list) will have been 'done' in Gp 4.
And all the health and care workers in Gp 2 who are not discounted in the age group figures.
Life is not fair.
 
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lane

Veteran
I am not saying it is not fair - I am saying it is not an exact science and hence the wide disparity in different numbers per group. It does mean it's quite difficult to draw reliable conclusions at an individual level.
 
OP
OP
kingrollo

kingrollo

Guru
I am not saying it is not fair - I am saying it is not an exact science and hence the wide disparity in different numbers per group. It does mean it's quite difficult to draw reliable conclusions at an individual level.

Number of first jabs is one thing. Capacity in the NHS will also be a factor in lifting lockdown.

So if we hit the mid Feb target for first jabs - we aren't necessarily lifting lockdown if hospital s are still rammed with Covid patients.
 

classic33

Leg End Member
I trust the system to do its level best. The GP Surgeries are sending out the letters/communications.
Agree there are overlaps and sub-sets (eg CEV elements will ailments listed in the JCVI Gp 6 list) will have been 'done' in Gp 4.
And all the health and care workers in Gp 2 who are not discounted in the age group figures.
Life is not fair.
Last point first, it ain't fair. But if you feel like swapping, for an appointment for something I can't have let me know.

It present it seems that the system isn't working. Letters giving the dates have come from NHS England and NHS Improvement, according to the letterhead. Acting entirely separate from my GP, who has full access to the medical records.
 
OP
OP
kingrollo

kingrollo

Guru
Last point first, it ain't fair. But if you feel like swapping, for an appointment for something I can't have let me know.

It present it seems that the system isn't working. Letters giving the dates have come from NHS England and NHS Improvement, according to the letterhead. Acting entirely separate from my GP, who has full access to the medical records.

It's a numbers game at the moment. I got my jab at short notice and had to Q for an hour - Staff were being vaccinated on a walk in basis - all good at the moment as we have a willing supply of people wanting and able to get jabs.

Next challenge will be the harder to reach folk.
 

lane

Veteran
I set out below the criteria for CEV and Underlining risk groups. I have put in bold where the same people are in both groups but there is clearly quite a bit of overlap on the others although not exactly the same. However in fairness I have noticed that it says that "Individuals within these risk groups who are clinically extremely vulnerable are discussed separately (see above)". So the underlying risk group is acknowledged to include people are are also CEV. There is quite a bit of overlap.

I would imagine the big numbers in cat 6 not covered at last partly in cat 4 are:
  1. Morbid obesity (approx. 2m according to google)
  2. Diabetes (3.9 million per google)
  3. Chronic heart disease (7.4 million people living with heart and circulatory disease in the UK per google but I don't know if this is exactly the same classification)
So just those few (and there are a few more I haven't counted) is approx. 13 million. Maybe 50% will fall in groups 1 to 5 (large margin of error there obviously) but I could see group 6 might be as high as the higher estimates of 7 million.

f you think there are good clinical reasons why you should be added to the Shielded Patient List, discuss your concerns with your GP or hospital clinician. People with the following conditions are automatically deemed clinically extremely vulnerable:
  • solid organ transplant recipients
  • people with specific cancers:
    • people with cancer who are undergoing active chemotherapy
    • people with lung cancer who are undergoing radical radiotherapy
    • people with cancers of the blood or bone marrow such as leukaemia, lymphoma or myeloma who are at any stage of treatment
    • people having immunotherapy or other continuing antibody treatments for cancer
    • people having other targeted cancer treatments that can affect the immune system, such as protein kinase inhibitors or PARP inhibitors
    • people who have had bone marrow or stem cell transplants in the last 6 months or who are still taking immunosuppression drugs
  • people with severe respiratory conditions including all cystic fibrosis, severe asthma and severe chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD)
  • people with rare diseases that significantly increase the risk of infections (such as severe combined immunodeficiency (SCID), homozygous sickle cell disease)
  • people on immunosuppression therapies sufficient to significantly increase risk of infection
  • problems with your spleen, for example splenectomy (having your spleen removed)
  • adults with Down’s syndrome
  • adults on dialysis or with chronic kidney disease (stage 5)
  • women who are pregnant with significant heart disease, congenital or acquired
  • other people who have also been classed as clinically extremely vulnerable, based on clinical judgement and an assessment of their needs. GPs and hospital clinicians have been provided with guidance to support these decisions


The Committee’s advice is to offer vaccination to those aged 65 years and over followed by those in clinical risk groups aged 16 years and over. The main risk groups identified by the Committee are set out below. • Chronic respiratory disease, including chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD), cystic fibrosis and severe asthma • Chronic heart disease (and vascular disease) • Chronic kidney disease 8 • Chronic liver disease • Chronic neurological disease including epilepsy • Down’s syndromeSevere and profound learning disability • Diabetes • Solid organ, bone marrow and stem cell transplant recipients People with specific cancers • Immunosuppression due to disease or treatment • Asplenia and splenic dysfunction • Morbid obesity • Severe mental illness Other groups at higher risk, incl
 

Ajax Bay

Guru
Location
East Devon
Next challenge will be the harder to reach folk.
I agree. Through whatever influence mechanisms that will work best, we have to get a good vaccine take up in the vulnerable elements of the BAME communities because that identifiable element of the population has, for whatever reason (vitamin D deficiency - correlation), been found disproportionately adversely affected by COVID-19 in terms of serious illness and death.
When I said "Life is not fair" what I tried to imply was that there will be anomalies in the figures and categorisations, but I thought that GP Surgeries will do their level best.
 
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classic33

Leg End Member
I set out below the criteria for CEV and Underlining risk groups. I have put in bold where the same people are in both groups but there is clearly quite a bit of overlap on the others although not exactly the same. However in fairness I have noticed that it says that "Individuals within these risk groups who are clinically extremely vulnerable are discussed separately (see above)". So the underlying risk group is acknowledged to include people are are also CEV. There is quite a bit of overlap.

I would imagine the big numbers in cat 6 not covered at last partly in cat 4 are:
  1. Morbid obesity (approx. 2m according to google)
  2. Diabetes (3.9 million per google)
  3. Chronic heart disease (7.4 million people living with heart and circulatory disease in the UK per google but I don't know if this is exactly the same classification)
So just those few (and there are a few more I haven't counted) is approx. 13 million. Maybe 50% will fall in groups 1 to 5 (large margin of error there obviously) but I could see group 6 might be as high as the higher estimates of 7 million.

f you think there are good clinical reasons why you should be added to the Shielded Patient List, discuss your concerns with your GP or hospital clinician. People with the following conditions are automatically deemed clinically extremely vulnerable:
  • solid organ transplant recipients
  • people with specific cancers:
    • people with cancer who are undergoing active chemotherapy
    • people with lung cancer who are undergoing radical radiotherapy
    • people with cancers of the blood or bone marrow such as leukaemia, lymphoma or myeloma who are at any stage of treatment
    • people having immunotherapy or other continuing antibody treatments for cancer
    • people having other targeted cancer treatments that can affect the immune system, such as protein kinase inhibitors or PARP inhibitors
    • people who have had bone marrow or stem cell transplants in the last 6 months or who are still taking immunosuppression drugs
  • people with severe respiratory conditions including all cystic fibrosis, severe asthma and severe chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD)
  • people with rare diseases that significantly increase the risk of infections (such as severe combined immunodeficiency (SCID), homozygous sickle cell disease)
  • people on immunosuppression therapies sufficient to significantly increase risk of infection
  • problems with your spleen, for example splenectomy (having your spleen removed)
  • adults with Down’s syndrome
  • adults on dialysis or with chronic kidney disease (stage 5)
  • women who are pregnant with significant heart disease, congenital or acquired
  • other people who have also been classed as clinically extremely vulnerable, based on clinical judgement and an assessment of their needs. GPs and hospital clinicians have been provided with guidance to support these decisions


The Committee’s advice is to offer vaccination to those aged 65 years and over followed by those in clinical risk groups aged 16 years and over. The main risk groups identified by the Committee are set out below. • Chronic respiratory disease, including chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD), cystic fibrosis and severe asthma • Chronic heart disease (and vascular disease) • Chronic kidney disease 8 • Chronic liver disease • Chronic neurological disease including epilepsy • Down’s syndromeSevere and profound learning disability • Diabetes • Solid organ, bone marrow and stem cell transplant recipients People with specific cancers • Immunosuppression due to disease or treatment • Asplenia and splenic dysfunction • Morbid obesity • Severe mental illness Other groups at higher risk, incl

Definition of clinically extremely vulnerable groups
People who are defined as clinically extremely vulnerable are at very high risk of severe illness from coronavirus. There are 2 ways you may be identified as clinically extremely vulnerable:

1. You have one or more of conditions listed below, or
2. "Your clinician or GP has added you to the Shielded Patient List because, based on their clinical judgement, they deem to you be at higher risk of serious illness if you catch the virus."

It's not as simple as it sounds, or seems on paper.
 

mjr

Comfy armchair to one person & a plank to the next
Pfizer is delaying vaccine deliveries while they upgrade production, but Italy threatens to sue https://www.reuters.com/article/us-health-coronavirus-italy-vaccines-idUSKBN29P1RC
 

Ajax Bay

Guru
Location
East Devon
@PK99 shared this link earlier:
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2021/jan/16/covid-vaccine-black-people-unlikely-covid-jab-uk
"Overall, the study [polling was in November, mind, figures come from the UK Household Longitudinal Study] found high levels of willingness to be vaccinated, with 82% of people saying they were likely or very likely to have the jab – rising to 96% among people over the age of 75.
"Women, younger people and those with lower levels of education were less willing, but hesitancy was particularly high among people from black groups, where 72% said they were unlikely or very unlikely to be vaccinated. Among Pakistani and Bangladeshi groups this figure was 42%. Eastern European groups were also less willing.
"These figures are higher than previous estimates by the Royal Society for Public Health. Its poll of 2,076 UK adults found 57% of respondents from BAME backgrounds would take a Covid jab if advised by their GP or another health professional, compared with 79% of white respondents."
 

lane

Veteran
Reported on the BBC website today 98% of over 70s will have the vaccine.

New research suggests the older a person is, the more likely they are to intend to take up a coronavirus vaccine.

Around eight in 10 people aged 16-29 - 81% - said they would be very likely or fairly likely to take up an offered vaccine, the Office for National Statistics found.

This rose to 98% of adults aged 70 and over.

Overall, around nine in 10 - 89% - respondents said they would be very likely or fairly likely to have the vaccine if offered, and around one in 20 (5%) very or fairly unlikely.

Most of those reluctant to get the jab said they were worried about potential long-term health effects.

The research also suggests there has been a slight gradual increase in positive attitudes towards getting vaccinated.

In early December, 78% of adults said they would be likely or fairly likely to take up the offer of a jab.
 

mjr

Comfy armchair to one person & a plank to the next
Reported on the BBC website today 98% of over 70s will have the vaccine.

Just a small note that it's "would" not "will":

Around eight in 10 people aged 16-29 - 81% - said they would be very likely or fairly likely to take up an offered vaccine, the Office for National Statistics found.

This rose to 98% of adults aged 70 and over.

There is also the "if offered" caveat later. Has anyone a good list of who is not being offered it? (other than children which is not really relevant yet)
 

lane

Veteran
There is approximately 600,000 teachers and police in the UK and some discussion over when they will be vaccinated, but will be after all over 50s, CEV and at risk groups. Interesting to note that 2 million morbidly obese people are being prioritised in group 6 "at risk".
 

vickster

Legendary Member
There is approximately 600,000 teachers and police in the UK and some discussion over when they will be vaccinated, but will be after all over 50s, CEV and at risk groups. Interesting to note that 2 million morbidly obese people are being prioritised in group 6 "at risk".
Because they are based on morbidity and mortality data from coronavirus presumably
 
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