COVID Vaccine !

[Unkraut]

I thought that was the mood music from Boris - back to normal at Easter.

Even with a relatively high rate of vaccination, I would have thought that a very foolish thing to entertain. I don't think I have heard anyone claim that a moderate 'normality' will be possible until at least the autumn. Better that than raise false hopes or give the impression the end is in sight and we can all relax now.

The predominance of anti vax attitudes in France and Germany is startling, ...

The information on the link is now out-of-date as far as Germany is concerned. The latest figures given on the news were 67% take up with no qualms, and only about 10% reject outright. The remainder cover those likely to agree to those unlikely to agree split about 50/50. This I suspect is down to less credence being given to non-expert conspiracy theorists coupled with more awareness of what a nasty thing covid is.

 

[SpokeyDokey]

Up to and including yesterday (20 Jan):

363 508 vaccinations on the day

4 973 248 first dose to date.

464 036 second dose to date.

That's some going and a credit to all concerned.

 

[Ajax Bay]

I am fairly sure that even temporary refusal is usually counted as refusal in other vaccination stats collections until such time that they are actually vaccinated.

The stats on a reasonable timescale (which is what matters, not a daily 'fight') will show the temporary refuser as having been vaccinated and therefore they'd not appear in the 'refuse/other' figure/percentage.

Where did you get the idea that it [can't be bothered] was a significant factor?

I have not implied that it is (a significant percentage).

 

[dodgy]

Up to and including yesterday (20 Jan):

363 508 vaccinations on the day

4 973 248 first dose to date.

464 036 second dose to date.

That's some going and a credit to all concerned.

Doing the sums knowing how far down the queue you are is quite encouraging, I'm 55 and reckon I should be called forward late Feb

 

[Ajax Bay]

23 Nov - No 10 Briefing: "PM suggested the "vast majority" of people most vulnerable to coronavirus could be vaccinated against the disease by Easter."
And I reckon that is true. By Easter (4 Apr) we might expect 27M to have received their first vaccination, (and of those about 4M should have had their second dose as well).
Any reasonable definition of "people most vulnerable to coronavirus" cannot be more than 35M (say) and 27M is a 'vast majority' within that.

 

[dodgy]

Could the vaccination program be one of the vanishingly small successes of this government? I hope so.

 

[Ajax Bay]

Doing the sums knowing how far down the queue you are is quite encouraging, I'm 55 and reckon I should be called forward late Feb

To manage your expectations, if the programme achieves vaccinating Groups 1-4 (over 70s ++) by 15 Feb, the programme will show (stats) a 'sigh of relief', I suspect in part caused by an all out effort to hit 15 Feb and a temporary slight drop in subsequent supply volumes. Progress will be steady in for the rest of February and the ~6M in Groups 5-6 can expect to be 'done' by then.
Group 7 = 3.8M (5 days @ 400k and 9 days @ 200k) so, @dodgy the over 55s in Group 8 might hope for mid March onwards.
Note (see my earlier posts) there will be a slowing down in first dose progress from 6 Mar onwards as 200,000 doses per day (and increasing) will be required for those who received their first dose after 20 Dec.

As to your other point @dodgy , we should put negotiating a good deal down as a contributory success.

 

[dodgy]

I'll take March @Ajax Bay

 

[Ajax Bay]

I'll take March @Ajax Bay

Get back in the queue; well, behind me anyway

 

[classic33]

23 Nov - No 10 Briefing: "PM suggested the "vast majority" of people most vulnerable to coronavirus could be vaccinated against the disease by Easter."
And I reckon that is true. By Easter (6 Apr) we might expect 27M to have received their first vaccination, (and of those about 4M should have had their second dose as well).
Any reasonable definition of "people most vulnerable to coronavirus" cannot be more than 35M (say) and 27M is a 'vast majority' within that.

I've been told I can expect May, the earliest possible. Then they changed the dosage period.

I can't have it anyway, but that's the earliest given for CEV.

 

[mjr]

23 Nov - No 10 Briefing: "PM suggested the "vast majority" of people most vulnerable to coronavirus could be vaccinated against the disease by Easter."
And I reckon that is true. By Easter (6 Apr) we might expect 27M to have received their first vaccination, (and of those about 4M should have had their second dose as well).
Any reasonable definition of "people most vulnerable to coronavirus" cannot be more than 35M (say) and 27M is a 'vast majority' within that.

Of course it is true: it says "could" not "will".

A more testing target is from the PM's speech on 4 Jan: "By the middle of February, if things go well and with a fair wind in our sails, we expect to have offered the first vaccine dose to everyone in the four top priority groups identified by the Joint Committee on Vaccination and Immunisation. That means vaccinating all residents in a care home for older adults and their carers, everyone over the age of 70, all frontline health and social care workers, and everyone who is clinically extremely vulnerable."

Notably, that excludes "offered" meaning an appointment letter has been sent like the BBC show fears.

 

[dodgy]

You'll find bad news, if you look hard enough 🤷‍♂️
I try to be an optimist.

 

[mjr]

You'll find bad news, if you look hard enough 🤷‍♂️
I try to be an optimist.

Me too. Just being clear on the current target. I hope they hit it.

 

[classic33]

I said: "We don't know what the refusal or can't be bothered rate is"

As you can see I did not "equate refusal with "can't be bothered" ": they are clearly different (though there may be an overlap). I can also see how you could read that as me equating the two categories: it was not my thought or intent. It would be better phrased: "We don't know what the refusal or can't be bothered rates are, combined."
You're absolutely right: I did not include the sad category of people who have rational "concerns about their health or other drug interactions". Any idea what sort of percentage or numbers we're talking about? Add some value, here.
People who have transient illness (you gave an example) will as you say rebook - I do not categorise them as 'refusers', and nor will the stats, and your aggressive assertion that I've implied that is itself 'crass' imho. That illness maybe COVID-19. Clearly we don't want symptomatic people to come to a vaccination centre. People are not stupid.
Do you think some will fall into the "can't be bothered" category (dressed up as something else perhaps)? @nickyboy gives you some pointers above

As one who falls into your category of "sad category of people who have rational "concerns about their health or other drug interactions", your comment is an insult, nothing less.

I've to watch what is taken due to interactions with current medications. Even simple everyday medications, tried and tested the world over, have put me in A&E's more than once. Painkillers are a big no-no.

 

[Ajax Bay]

Building on some of the figures above and looking forward to herd immunity kicking in.
If we take 73% as the percentage of the population which need to be immune before that's achieved. With a UK population of 62M that's 45M
A reasonably supported estimate is that 20% of the population have 'had' COVID-19, a good proportion asymptomatic and/or not tested (12M).
Since there will be overlap (ie people who've been infected, knowingly or not, who then get vaccinated and another element who had been infected but whose antibodies have dropped below protective level) of, say, 4M, once we've vaccinated 37M (first or both doses), we'll be over the 73%. (NB 5+M fewer if we exclude the 8M under 10s from the calculation.)
From one of my posts above, if the UK programme continues on plan, we should have 32M vaccinated by end April (assumes 400,000 a day from 6 March split half and half (1st/2nd dose)).
So 10 May to hit 37M and expectations of (effective) herd immunity. (NB 15 days quicker if we exclude the 8M under-10s from the calculation.)
Caveats: Depends on
= vaccination programme continues at pace (300,000 daily rising to 400,000 by 6 Mar, and maintained, 7-day averages)
= how effective the vaccine is (we hope 90-95%)
= how infectious the viral strain is (come May) - factors into 'R' and NB it's going to be a lovely May (well last year it was )
= restriction measures reducing R - these measures will have been progressively revised across the UK by then
assumes vaccines stop person transmitting (as well as getting infected with symptoms).
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