COVID Vaccine !

[nickyboy]

Oh Feck.......
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/ar...zers-vaccine-effective-expected-one-dose.html

Real-world data from Israel's world-beating rollout showed the first dose led to a 33 per cent reduction in cases of coronavirus between 14 and 21 days afterwards among people who got the jab. Another of the country's top doctors said it was 'really good news'.

But the figure is lower than the British regulator's estimate, which said it may prevent 89 per cent of recipients from getting Covid-19 symptoms.

However, Israel's data does not prove anything about possible impacts of the UK's controversial 12-week gap between doses. The country does not give any more than three weeks between the first and second doses, during which time protection is expected to be minimal at best – and the vaccine is not intended to prevent infection, but severe disease and death.

Sir Patrick Vallance, the UK's chief scientific adviser, today said he would expect all vaccines to be less effective in the real world than in trials. He added that Britain should look 'very carefully' at data during the vaccine rollout to see what effect its having.


Pfizer's own data shows that protection from Covid starts from about 12 days after the first dose, but that one jab can only prevent around 52 per cent of cases of disease, compared to the 95 per cent reduction offered by two. It does not offer any proof that a single dose works for longer than three weeks.

For this reason, the US pharmaceutical company refused to endorse Britain's decision to change the dosing schedule, saying there was no proof it would work.

You have to be careful in reading too much into what the developers of vaccines say. They are extremely tightly regulated in terms of public announcements. Their "refusal" to endorse Britain's (and a lot of other countries') decision is because they aren't allowed to do so by the bodies that regulate them as they have not done trials beyond 21 days gap. It isn't because they don't think it's a good idea (although that may also be the case)

More broadly, it looks like there may need to be some refining of the 1st/2nd dose regime if it proves that the 12 week gap isn't optimal. Having said that, it's easy to get carried away without much hard evidence. Remember the stories coming out of Norway that "vaccinations caused thirty odd deaths" in care homes. That's been rowed back on now

 

[Ajax Bay]

my lips are sealed

Was that a side effect of your jab?

 

[lejogger]

Like I say my lips are sealed. But feel what you have posted above isn't uniform.

How cryptic. I'd rather base my view on my personal experience.

 

[lane]

Assume you mean the JCVI priority list and the criteria used to decide on it.
Please be assured considerable consultation was undertaken to get the definitions of the NHS (plus) workers who should be in Group 2 'right'. And don't be distracted by aberrations of NHS and other people working in hospitals (say) who were pulled in last thing of an evening to just make sure no dose was wasted. There is now very clear direction to have short notice waiting list available to soak up any 'surplus' at the end of each day.
No doubt they are looking at the merits of certain employment groups getting the vaccine before others in their age cohort. But the current policy (and expectation) is that this will be only after Groups 1-9 have been vaccinated.
Besides teachers (but remember the mantra that schools are relatively 'safe' and, relative to others fora, not high in the list of transmission mechanisms) prison officers and police officers have a fair shout, oh and bus drivers and taxi drivers. Perhaps others can flesh out a list and we can try and put them in CycleChat priority order?
From a vulnerability to serious illness and death PoV (and please recall that's the driver informing JCVI's judgement) prioritising/targeting BAME communities and workers would also seem to have considerable merit.
Finally, shouldn't we be prioritising men over women? I can't remember the figures off hand but the threat of this disease to 50-55 year old men is similar to 55-60 year old women. So in Groups 7,8 and 9, move the men up one group (or the women down one). (My answer is 'no' btw: too many disadvantages.

Personally I don't believe that school s are relatively safe - I think that is made up to keep schools open. Funny is transmission in schools is so low they have closed but lots of other places haven't.

 

[Ajax Bay]

Oh Feck....... https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/ar...zers-vaccine-effective-expected-one-dose.html
Real-world data from Israel's world-beating rollout showed the first dose led to a 33 per cent reduction in cases of coronavirus between 14 and 21 days afterwards among people who got the jab. Another of the country's top doctors said it was 'really good news'.
But the figure is lower than the British regulator's estimate, which said it may prevent 89 per cent of recipients from getting Covid-19 symptoms.
However, Israel's data does not prove anything about possible impacts of the UK's controversial 12-week gap between doses. The country does not give any more than three weeks between the first and second doses, during which time protection is expected to be minimal at best – and the vaccine is not intended to prevent infection, but severe disease and death.
Sir Patrick Vallance, the UK's chief scientific adviser, today said he would expect all vaccines to be less effective in the real world than in trials. He added that Britain should look 'very carefully' at data during the vaccine rollout to see what effect its having.
. . . the US pharmaceutical company refused to endorse Britain's decision to change the dosing schedule, saying there was no proof it would work.

Besides @nickyboy 's valid points.
1) I find it odd that someone who implicitly denigrates anyone who reads the Daily Mail then grabs another useless article and quotes it as if valid.
2) "data from Israel's world-beating rollout showed the first dose led to a 33 per cent reduction in cases of coronavirus between 14 and 21 days afterwards among people who got the jab. But the figure is lower than the British regulator's estimate, which said it may prevent 89 per cent of recipients from getting Covid-19 symptoms." Comment: The 33%/67% figure includes all those who caught COVID-19 after vaccination (any fule no that vaccination takes time to work) - in this case the Israeli study (which I quoted yesterday) says that after 10-11 days the percentage rises to 89%.
3) "Israel's data does not prove anything about . . . 12-week gap between doses. The country does not give any more than three weeks between the first and second doses, during which time protection is expected to be minimal at best "
Comment: First sentence entirely correct. Doesn't prove anything either way: positive or negative. First part of second sentence correct: the Israelis have stuck to the Pfizer protocol which did not look at the effects of extending the gap between doses. The Oxford-AZ trials did do this and produced useful data. Second part of second sentence is false/fake/wrong/out-of-date. See Israeli study I quoted yesterday. Does 89% = 'minimal'?
4) "Sir Patrick Vallance . . expect all vaccines to be less effective in the real world than in trials and . . . . look 'very carefully' at data during the vaccine rollout to see what effect its having." Entirely reasonable (but so what), and no sh1t Sherlock.
5) JCVI no doubt invited Pfizer to comment, even 'endorse' on extending the gap to 12 weeks. But they couldn't endorse that: they had no evidence that it would be better or worse. Led by the science.
I can't believe I've spent this time on a useless DM article, but it's raining and blowing a hooley outside.

 

[mjr]

There is now very clear direction to have short notice waiting list available to soak up any 'surplus' at the end of each day.

And is there clear direction who should be on it? Can mortals apply? Or only friends of Gove?

 

[oldwheels]

Sturgeon isn’t denying it, in fact she’s trying to explain it away with talk of complex supply chains.

It is claimed by John Swinney that the 700000 figure is not correct and it is till fake news as far as I can tell.
Scotland has vaccinated more per head of population than eg London.
The emphasis on who gets the jab first seems to be different and the whole thing is being kicked around as a political football.
I no longer have a TV but if this came from the BBC I would automatically question the veracity of anything they put out being even more anti SNP as now being run by a major donor to the Tories.
The Liberals seem to have a misleading leaflet which has now been withdrawn as well.

 

[kingrollo]

Besides @nickyboy 's valid points.
1) I find it odd that someone who implicitly denigrates anyone who reads the Daily Mail then grabs another useless article and quotes it as if valid.
2) "data from Israel's world-beating rollout showed the first dose led to a 33 per cent reduction in cases of coronavirus between 14 and 21 days afterwards among people who got the jab. But the figure is lower than the British regulator's estimate, which said it may prevent 89 per cent of recipients from getting Covid-19 symptoms." Comment: The 33%/67% figure includes all those who caught COVID-19 after vaccination (any fule no that vaccination takes time to work) - in this case the Israeli study (which I quoted yesterday) says that after 10-11 days the percentage rises to 89%.
3) "Israel's data does not prove anything about . . . 12-week gap between doses. The country does not give any more than three weeks between the first and second doses, during which time protection is expected to be minimal at best "
Comment: First sentence entirely correct. Doesn't prove anything either way: positive or negative. First part of second sentence correct: the Israelis have stuck to the Pfizer protocol which did not look at the effects of extending the gap between doses. The Oxford-AZ trials did do this and produced useful data. Second part of second sentence is false/fake/wrong/out-of-date. See Israeli study I quoted yesterday. Does 89% = 'minimal'?
4) "Sir Patrick Vallance . . expect all vaccines to be less effective in the real world than in trials and . . . . look 'very carefully' at data during the vaccine rollout to see what effect its having." Entirely reasonable (but so what), and no sh1t Sherlock.
5) JCVI no doubt invited Pfizer to comment, even 'endorse' on extending the gap to 12 weeks. But they couldn't endorse that: they had no evidence that it would be better or worse. Led by the science.
I can't believe I've spent this time on a useless DM article, but it's raining and blowing a hooley outside.

The actual source of the story is Israels coronavirus Tsar Nachman Ash. I actually heard the story on the radio - its being reported by lots of different sources. Here's the guardian one - if you dare to stick your blue nose there.

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2...e-dose-in-israel-less-effective-than-we-hoped

So its an actual story - not 'The daily mail understands' . Of course you are free to put your opinion and draw your own conclusions (Keep them brief though ! )

 

[Flick of the Elbow]

being kicked around as a political football.

Also known as holding the First Minister and her woeful Government to account.

 

[oldwheels]

Also known as holding the First Minister and her woeful Government to account.

You have been listening to too much biased reporting.
I think we are far better looked after by our government than the shambles at Westminster.
We are never going to agree on this so best just agree to disagree.

 

[Julia9054]

My friend is currently sat in the car at the vaccination centre in York with her father. His appointment was at 11am. It is currently 1.40pm and they are corralled into a holding area. The only food in the car is McD‘s tomato sauce sachets and wet wipes to suck!

Finally vaccinated at 3pm. Lucky he had someone to take him in the car (whilst technically breaking lockdown rules). There were no facilities there for anyone arriving by public transport or taxi.

 

[kingrollo]

Finally vaccinated at 3pm. Lucky he had someone to take him in the car (whilst technically breaking lockdown rules). There were no facilities there for anyone arriving by public transport or taxi.

4 hours ? - Glad he got jabbed in the end - what was the problem ? - just too many in attendance ?

 

[lane]

Finally vaccinated at 3pm. Lucky he had someone to take him in the car (whilst technically breaking lockdown rules). There were no facilities there for anyone arriving by public transport or taxi.

Not ideal but worth the wait. May not have been breaking the rules probably an exemption.

 

[Ajax Bay]

Quick Question - Is the second dose the same as the first ? (In terms of volume of stuff injected)

The doses are 0.3ml and same for both doses. My mother had hers on 18 Dec/8 Jan at the local MIU community hospital. I am so looking forward to seeing her in March when restrictions allow.

After dilution, the Pfizer vial contains nominally 5 doses of 0.3 ml, but actually and practically, using low-wastage needles, you can get 6 doses of 0.3ml out of every vial. This is now standard and directed practice in the NHS. Though Pfizer have no doubt "refused to endorse" it. Note that this means the 40M doses ordered back in the summer by the UK will actually offer an extra 20% doses (and the individual dose cost drops to under $20). This will help allow us to carry on using the Pfizer in February and first half of March, after which most of the Pfizer supply will go to giving second doses (1 Jan -14 Mar = 11 weeks).

Bear in mind that Pfizer did not test a 'one dose only' regime. If they had (drawing on the recently shared Israeli report) they'd have found one dose gave 89% efficacy at least in the short term (NB 89% is WAY above the performance threshold specified during vaccine research). We don't know what the longer term efficacy is and to what extent it reduces over time because there is no evidence. All the Israelis got their second jab in the 20-25 day period so longer term data from there is and will be non-existent. I note it would not be to Pfizer's commercial advantage to have a 'one dose' regime so they did not test for it. The Oxford-AZ trials did gather diverse data which informed the JCVI judgement.

The UK Government's decision to go for a 12 week gap to allow double the number of people to receive one dose and the protection it confers is wise, and led by the science (but not 'evidence-based). We are also doing the world an experimental favour: I expect it to be a success and sincerely hope that around the world the billion most vulverable to serious illness or/and death can be vaccinated at twice the rate.
NB Especially with the Oxford-AZ vaccine stored in the fridge and costing less than $3 per dose.

 

[Julia9054]

4 hours ? - Glad he got jabbed in the end - what was the problem ? - just too many in attendance ?

I guess so. My friend said that everyone who had appointments at 11 turned up early and were waved through whereas they turned up at their allotted time. At least the toilets were open.