Low Gear Guy
Veteran
- Location
- Surrey
If the vaccine has to modified to take account of mutations we are probably looking at annual injections for the whole adult population. Like the flu vaccine programme on a bigger scale.
COVID Vaccine !
- Thread starter kingrollo
- Start date
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srw
It's a bit more complicated than that...
I posted it last week....
mjr
Comfy armchair to one person & a plank to the next
- Location
- mostly Norfolk, sometimes Somerset
You are probably right in that expecting this govt to do things intelligently is a big leap!
OP
OP
kingrollo
Guru
Agreed.
But if Pfizer put a change in the next few weeks...those countries that have vaccinated loads - suddenly slip to the bottom of countries in terms of effective vaccinated people.
It's the nightmare scenario - potentially even before we have finished this rollout - we potentially have to re vaccinate those early adopters .
Rusty Nails
We remember
- Location
- Living in the slow lane
Better to have waited 6 months then to make sure new variants are taken into account. Oh wait, there's a problem with that idea!
nickyboy
Norven Mankey
- Location
- You want hills? We got hills
But there is nothing to suggest that this is even remotely likely. Unless you know differently of course.
Surely it can't be an unsubstantiated, unresearched bit of scaremongering can it?
From what I have heard and read, so far there is high confidence the current Pfizer vaccine will cope with mutations of the virus. If it doesn't it is easier/less difficult to adapt it than create it in the first place, and that should be possible fairly quickly.
It may be another mutation has surfaced in Garmisch-Partenkirchen, on today's news. It is not the British version and is currently being investigated. Will take some time to evaluate as there is only limited laboratory capacity.
Ajax Bay
Guru
- Location
- East Devon
Think this is known as the Zimbabwean method - oh no, hang on, is that something 'entirely' different?
Ajax Bay
Guru
- Location
- East Devon
Ajax Bay
Guru
- Location
- East Devon
How many people will need to be vaccinated to stop the disease spreading? This depends on how infectious the viral strain is, how effective the vaccine is, and how much we are prepared to continue with lockdown measures. NB: These model predictions for the success of the vaccination programmes depend (i.e. assume) on the vaccine being able to limit the transmission of the virus – not just stop people getting ill. But we still don’t know (there are insufficient data) if the current batch of approved COVID vaccines stops transmission.
Critical vaccination levels depend on the estimated effective reproductive number, with the vaccine efficiency of 90%.
We could continue with very strict social distancing indefinitely, bringing R below 1 so that the number of new infections decreases. In this case, we would not need any vaccination (point marked A on the graph). But the moment control measures were relaxed, R would jump back above 1 and the epidemic would start to spread again.
Or we could continue to combine some level of lockdown with the roll out of vaccines. In this scenario (point marked B on the graph) we would see a decline in cases once 40% of the population were immune to the virus. However, this strategy relies on keeping R just above 1. The disease would probably come back as soon as further relaxation occurred.
As we want to return to our activities and freedoms without social distancing, the vaccination levels need to be much higher, taking into account how effectively the virus can spread with no additional control.
Critical vaccination levels depend on the estimated effective reproductive number, with the vaccine efficiency of 90%.
We could continue with very strict social distancing indefinitely, bringing R below 1 so that the number of new infections decreases. In this case, we would not need any vaccination (point marked A on the graph). But the moment control measures were relaxed, R would jump back above 1 and the epidemic would start to spread again.
Or we could continue to combine some level of lockdown with the roll out of vaccines. In this scenario (point marked B on the graph) we would see a decline in cases once 40% of the population were immune to the virus. However, this strategy relies on keeping R just above 1. The disease would probably come back as soon as further relaxation occurred.
As we want to return to our activities and freedoms without social distancing, the vaccination levels need to be much higher, taking into account how effectively the virus can spread with no additional control.
Received my first dose of the AstraZeneca vaccine today.
Feeling incredibly privileged to have received it well before I otherwise would have been eligible, due to my non-patient facing role in the NHS.
I used to joke that the free flu vaccine was the only tangible 'bonus' of working in public health finance, as opposed to annual cash bonuses often received in the private sector. It's funny how perception can change in the light of a global pandemic, given the incalculable value of comparatively secure employment and a medical 'queue-jump' in these frightening times.
11 weeks until my 'booster'. Expect this will be when my phone picks up my 5G signal.
No side effects as yet. Interested to see if I develop any, as anecdotally the AstraZeneca is said to induce more severe reactions than the Pfizer. I tested positive for anti-bodies in June, so also interested if that may impact on side-effects, if any residue of them remain.
Feeling incredibly privileged to have received it well before I otherwise would have been eligible, due to my non-patient facing role in the NHS.
I used to joke that the free flu vaccine was the only tangible 'bonus' of working in public health finance, as opposed to annual cash bonuses often received in the private sector. It's funny how perception can change in the light of a global pandemic, given the incalculable value of comparatively secure employment and a medical 'queue-jump' in these frightening times.
11 weeks until my 'booster'. Expect this will be when my phone picks up my 5G signal.
No side effects as yet. Interested to see if I develop any, as anecdotally the AstraZeneca is said to induce more severe reactions than the Pfizer. I tested positive for anti-bodies in June, so also interested if that may impact on side-effects, if any residue of them remain.
BoldonLad
Not part of the Elite
- Location
- South Tyneside
Depends on what a person's portfolio consists of, but, actually, the FT100. has made reasonable progress, and, as with most assets, nothing lost, until you actually sell.
There are reasons for lifting or easing restrictions, other than money, like, for example non-covid health issues, mental health issues, education
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BoldonLad
Not part of the Elite
- Location
- South Tyneside
BoldonLad
Not part of the Elite
- Location
- South Tyneside
Not really, we could/would have had more deaths, leaving fewer people to vaccinate... every cloud...
Ajax Bay
Guru
- Location
- East Devon
Meanwhile, something from Israel on the likelihood that successful vaccination will "not become carriers of the virus and will not spread it further." Do the vaccines simply prevent disease resulting from the virus or do any of them stop a human from carrying and transmitting the virus?
It is the first indication that a Covid-19 vaccine may stop transmission. By 18 Jan the hospital had vaccinated some 80% of its employees with the first dose - a total of 7,106 individuals - and 4,484 with the booster shot.
“The results of the survey are consistent with Pfizer’s experiment and even exceeded expectations,” he said.
Comment: It's reasonable to surmise that the effects of vaccination with one Pfizer dose will afford similar (but with lower assurance) results (from 11 days to 12 weeks) and also that vaccination with other vaccines (eg Oxford-AZ) will have similar beneficial effect: "stop a human from carrying and transmitting the virus".
Roll on the programme (and March).
Professor Gili Regev-Yohai, director of Sheba’s Infectious Disease Epidemiology Unit, said that people who received both doses of the vaccine will most likely not become carriers of the virus and will not spread it further due to the high level of antibodies they have obtained.
It is the first indication that a Covid-19 vaccine may stop transmission. By 18 Jan the hospital had vaccinated some 80% of its employees with the first dose - a total of 7,106 individuals - and 4,484 with the booster shot.
“The results of the survey are consistent with Pfizer’s experiment and even exceeded expectations,” he said.
Comment: It's reasonable to surmise that the effects of vaccination with one Pfizer dose will afford similar (but with lower assurance) results (from 11 days to 12 weeks) and also that vaccination with other vaccines (eg Oxford-AZ) will have similar beneficial effect: "stop a human from carrying and transmitting the virus".
Roll on the programme (and March).
