COVID Vaccine !

[Ajax Bay]

Obligatory listening for all (well 'all' who come here to look!):
https://www.bbc.co.uk/programmes/m000rdcd
'How to Vaccinate the World' - caught the second half, this morning.

 

[tom73]

Are you drawing my attention to that article - out of interest -? or you feel I am advocating Jab and forget (I think you may have me mixed up with another poster)

I actually read that article at the weekend - its excellent. I see a couple of major threats to the vaccine and forget argument.

1.The calls to release lockdown early - as we get lots of people vaccinated. That decision should be based on infections and hospital capacity.

2.Any new variants (IMO these become more likely the more infections we have)

No i'm in full agreement with you thought some simple clear facts was in order. As some clearly don't want to face hard facts which you've been trying to get them to face on here.

 

[Ajax Bay]

Hard facts? I wish.

 

[Unkraut]

“The crisis does not stop at any national border. It is about time the prime minister started showing leadership, including fully participating in all EU efforts to secure critical medical supplies and a vaccine.”

The EU delay to ensure fair distribution is justified in that Bavaria, for example, has 1000 km border with Czechia with a high infection rate, and Austria also with a high infection rate and not far from northern Italy. There is an element of enlightened self-interest in ensuring everyone can vaccinate sufficiently at the same time. Doesn't leave any excuse for not having got on with though.

Will the UK learn from abroad, for a change?

There is a meeting of the States/Länder today to prepare for the big central federal government and States meeting tomorrow - brought forward a week, and likely to result in more severe measures to get the infection rate down as opposed to the plateau at present.

They are going to be advised by British scientists on all they have learnt about the new more infectious strain, as it has not yet been detected much on the continent, and the facilities for this need to be beefed up pretty quickly in Germany at least. There is a very real fear that if this new strain starts to run through the population before the rate is significantly reduced and the vaccination programme can get going it will become extraordinarily difficult to get it back under control.

 

[kingrollo]

Hard facts? I wish.

No i'm in full agreement with you thought some simple clear facts was in order. As some clearly don't want to face hard facts which you've been trying to get them to face on here.

I'm doing my best for humankind mate !

 

[mjr]

I'm genuinely bemused by your post:

The contrast UK Vs Europe roll out is stark.
would you have preferred to see us following the pattern apparent in the following:

https://www.politico.eu/article/coronavirus-vaccination-europe-by-the-numbers/

I'm genuinely bemused by your post in at least three ways: first, it uses week old numbers when the latest are available but it does not really matter in this case; second, being involved in the EU vaccine project would have been in addition to the UK projects; and thirdly, how can you have "UK vs Europe" when Brexiters keep telling us that we are still part of Europe but not the EU.

I've been quite consistent in acknowledging that the vaccine gamble seems to be paying off for gov.uk - while also being critical that it has led to and seems likely to lead to some deadly decisions, as the UK bet everything on vacc.

An alternative assessment, fwiw and reluctantly as this is so much water under the bridge, in italics:

• mjr = True, the UK did opt out and arguably it was dumb. Much stronger argument it wasn't dumb: so 'false'.

False? False? Do you think the UK didn't opt out?

• mjr = True, but only just: EMA approved Moderna's vaccine on the 6th whereas the UK's MHRA approved it on 8th. "early access" - true, but in retrospect, irrelevant:

So still true then and even you only judge it irrelevant "in retrospect".

• mjr = Too soon to tell. Come on. Can't you even acknowledge that's just False and FALSE.

So you're willing to declare something false, based on 18 days of new drug approvals (how many drugs is that?), rather than wait and see?

• mjr = True. False. Government rightly judged that shackling the UK to the EU Vaccines 'scheme' was putting public health ahead of political (communautaire) ideology.
• mjr = True. False. Government rightly judged that shackling the UK to the EU Vaccines 'scheme' was putting public health ahead of political (communautaire) ideology.

Both of those seem to be based on the misunderstanding that we could not have had our own "scheme" as well as being part of the EU one, similar to some other EU nations.

Just think: if the gov.uk gamble hadn't paid off, how much could we have been hurt by not having access to the EU project?

HTH (but keep digging if you want)

Not really any point on keeping digging now that we've unearthed the staggering bias in your assessment. [/i]

 

[Ajax Bay]

From the UK Actuaries Research Group:
How Soon to See the Vaccine's Benefits

"This bulletin explores the rate at which we might see the benefits of this programme [Groups 1-4 completed on schedule] in terms of the key metrics used to monitor the pandemic. We expect that the impact of a successful vaccination programme will be most obvious in the hospitalisation and deaths data, with material reductions in hospitalisation starting from mid-February and reported deaths in early March. The impact on cases is expected to be seen sooner, but the reduction is likely to be smaller."
[Note: this considers ONLY the effect of the vaccination programme and not the progressive reduction in all these metrics which we might expect to see as a result of other nation-wide precautionary and control measures, past, current and future, which will change at some stage (as early as late Feb, but who knows?]

 

[kingrollo]

From the UK Actuaries Research Group:
How Soon to See the Vaccine's Benefits
View attachment 569571
"This bulletin explores the rate at which we might see the benefits of this programme [Groups 1-4 completed on schedule] in terms of the key metrics used to monitor the pandemic. We expect that the impact of a successful vaccination programme will be most obvious in the hospitalisation and deaths data, with material reductions in hospitalisation starting from mid-February and reported deaths in early March. The impact on cases is expected to be seen sooner, but the reduction is likely to be smaller."
[Note: this considers ONLY the effect of the vaccination programme and not the progressive reduction in all these metrics which we might expect to see as a result of other nation-wide precautionary and control measures, past, current and future, which will change at some stage (as early as late Feb, but who knows?]

Didn't you post this yesterday ?

 

[nickyboy]

Just think: if the gov.uk gamble hadn't paid off, how much could we have been hurt by not having access to the EU project?

Just think: if the gov.uk decided to have access to the EU project how much could we have been hurt?

 

[mjr]

Just think: if the gov.uk decided to have access to the EU project how much could we have been hurt?

Indeed! If done intelligently, instead of some of the later vaccine deliveries, it is difficult to see how we would have been hurt.

 

[Low Gear Guy]

From the UK Actuaries Research Group:
How Soon to See the Vaccine's Benefits
View attachment 569571
"This bulletin explores the rate at which we might see the benefits of this programme [Groups 1-4 completed on schedule] in terms of the key metrics used to monitor the pandemic. We expect that the impact of a successful vaccination programme will be most obvious in the hospitalisation and deaths data, with material reductions in hospitalisation starting from mid-February and reported deaths in early March. The impact on cases is expected to be seen sooner, but the reduction is likely to be smaller."
[Note: this considers ONLY the effect of the vaccination programme and not the progressive reduction in all these metrics which we might expect to see as a result of other nation-wide precautionary and control measures, past, current and future, which will change at some stage (as early as late Feb, but who knows?]

This assessment does not mention the effect of the government removing restrictions or less adherence by the public to the current regulations. This is likely to counteract the benefits of the vaccination programme.

 

[Ajax Bay]

If done intelligently, instead of some of the later vaccine deliveries

Cake it have eat can't your and

 

[Ajax Bay]

This assessment does not mention the effect of the government removing restrictions or less adherence by the public to the current regulations. This is likely to counteract the benefits of the vaccination programme.

Indeed: see my note (subscribed):
"Note: this considers ONLY the effect of the vaccination programme and not the progressive reduction in all these metrics which we might expect to see as a result of other nation-wide precautionary and control measures, past, current and future, which will change at some stage (as early as late Feb, but who knows?"
Counteract: yes. Stop the steep decline in the important metrics? Not likely.

 

[kingrollo]

This assessment does not mention the effect of the government removing restrictions or less adherence by the public to the current regulations. This is likely to counteract the benefits of the vaccination programme.

Don't tell him that. His shares portfolio is taking on hell of a beating - he needs that lockdown lifting asap.

 

[kingrollo]

Just think: if the gov.uk decided to have access to the EU project how much could we have been hurt?

Unless of course Pfizer tweak the vaccine to take account of new variants - then we have 5m people on the wrong version and needing an upgrade !!!