COVID Vaccine !

[Ajax Bay]

people will eventually stop getting seriously sick in any number much greater than background serious illness (cancer, RTAs etc etc).

As you say, I think the key reductions we can reasonably expect (as a result of the vaccination programme) is not the infection rate (which will continue to drop as a result of other measures) but by the end of February*, the numbers needing hospitalisation and even more so, the death rate. I've said up thread we can hope the COVID-19 related seriously ill and death rates will plummet in March.
*14 days (for 80+% protection) after 15 Feb - 88% of the cohort who might die, will not (statistically)
Edit (thank you @kingrollo): The 80% figure above is unsubstantiated. We "do not know" what the %age is.
Second edit: Around 82% (moderate confidence level - we still don't know): see BMJ article referenced and quoted at Post 1224 below.

 

[BoldonLad]

So:
the worst case - vaccine doesn't dampen transmission. But as the roll-out continues people will eventually stop getting seriously sick in any number much greater than background serious illness (cancer, RTAs etc etc). The youngest groups - even if they all refused the vac! - will barely register on the serious illness stats. This might take many months, but: Good news!
the best case - vaccine also damps down transmission. So we'll get exponential reduction rate in cases as the roll-out proceed. Very very good news! :-)

It is some weeks ago now, but, my recollection of JVT's "presentation" when revealing the decision to concentrate of "first jab" vaccination, was very much in line with that. At no point did he claim "prevent infection", it was all about mitigating the risk of hospital admission. From the beginning of the Pandemic, I personally have assume that sooner or later, more or less everyone will become infected, it is a case of minimising the effects of infection.

 

[kingrollo]

As you say, I think the key reductions we can reasonably expect (as a result of the vaccination programme) is not the infection rate (which will continue to drop as a result of other measures) but by the end of February*, the numbers needing hospitalisation and even more so, the death rate. I've said up thread we can hope the COVID-19 related seriously ill and death rates will plummet in March.
*14 days (for 80+% protection) after 15 Feb - 88% of the cohort who might die, will not (statistically)

Where are you getting 80% protection after 14 days from ? -

 

[Ajax Bay]

Interesting to reflect on this sober and balanced piece form the Guardian
The UK’s decision not to join an EU plan to distribute a potential coronavirus vaccine to its most vulnerable citizens has been described as “unforgivable” and condemned by health charities and opposition politicians.
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/jul/10/uk-poised-to-shun-eu-coronavirus-vaccine-scheme

Note this sober and balanced piece is dated 10 July so let's add "dated and OBE" to that. I think "sober and balanced" must be Guardian chosen adjectives, not yours.
What is the view of "opposition politicians" to the UK's approach to vaccine procurement now I wonder? "Forgivable?"
Who decides what the best strategy for vaccination is in the various member countries? Who are the EU's "most vulnerable citizens"?

 

[tom73]

Funny you should mention that. The British government took a calculated risk in ordering vaccine early. The ability to start vaccination early is of benefit to everyone, as the virus knows no borders.

The EU in the form of the European Commission, on the other hand, seems to have briefly lost the plot and reacted slowly. Biontech actually offered to double its offer of its vaccine to the EU, only to have this turned down! The result is a lack of vaccine available. This was inevitable at the beginning, and we now have hindsight. It's also true that EU solidarity was important as well. Someone got it wrong somewhere though.

In Germany this has led to the 400 000 injections per day capacity created being stymied by lack of vaccine. People turning up and being sent home. Whether the EU's slowness has made a massive difference to this I don't know, but I hope there will be an enquiry afterwards to make sure this doesn't ever happen again. Being too risk averse in a pandemic is not the right policy, and any money "wasted" on an ineffective vaccine would have been peanuts compared to the amounts needed to protect the economy from the effects of lockdown due to the ongoing infection rate.

That's one thing they got right by edging bets and buying into at least 7 different possibles and to do it early. Lack of supply is an issue here too some of which is the government cherry picking and diverting supply to mass centres leaving many GP's and other primary care services with plenty of apartments but no vaccine turn up. In some cases more with last minute appointments having to be sorted. The other big problem coming is letting this run away from us with plenty of at risk groups inc care homes still waiting for even the 1st dose.

 

[kingrollo]

Note this sober and balanced piece is dated 10 July so let's add "dated and OBE" to that. I think "sober and balanced" must be Guardian chosen adjectives, not yours.
What is the view of "opposition politicians" to the UK's approach to vaccine procurement now I wonder? "Forgivable?"
Who decides what the best strategy for vaccination is in the various member countries? Who are the EU's "most vulnerable citizens"?

Haven't you heard ? - Starmer and Labour are against the vaccine rollout - check todays daily mail, which has probably just popped through your letterbox.

 

[Ajax Bay]

Where are you getting 80% protection after 14 days from ?

Misremembered. What figure would you prefer? Analysis and deductions remains valid.

 

[PK99]

Note this sober and balanced piece is dated 10 July so let's add "dated and OBE" to that. I think "sober and balanced" must be Guardian chosen adjectives, not yours.
What is the view of "opposition politicians" to the UK's approach to vaccine procurement now I wonder? "Forgivable?"
Who decides what the best strategy for vaccination is in the various member countries? Who are the EU's "most vulnerable citizens"?

My apologies, the words were mine - I should have included an "ironic" smiley.

 

[kingrollo]

Misremembered. What figure would you prefer? Analysis and deductions remains valid.

It really isn't a question of what I prefer - it what is accurate. - and I don't believe 80% protection 14 days after the first jab is.

 

[Ajax Bay]

Are you trying to get me to click the DM site? How do you know what the Daily Mail says?
Edit: here's a relevant (to cycling) link - I have not looked at it - @Drago shared it and doesn't give it a good review.
I really don't see the vaccination programme as a political issue, but maybe that's naive.
I do suggest you stick to topic and neither indulge in oblique ad hominems nor ascribe to me views which I have not expressed.
Please research a better figure (accurate will not be available) for the level of protection that vaccination gives after 'x' days and share it with us. I note you tacitly agree that my "analysis and deductions remain valid".

 

[vickster]

Wales seems to be lagging somewhat on the vaccine rollout...my friend whose 80+ year old parents have heard diddly squat about when they may get vaccinated (they live in Cardiff)

My friend said that Drakeford had been reported as saying it's not a sprint to get people vaccinated and in her words, she'd like to marmalise him (not a phrase I've heard but I guess it's not good!!)

 

[Ajax Bay]

she'd like to marmalise him (not a phrase I've heard but I guess it's not good!!)

Might it mean she wants to advise him to shift into the large ring and keep pedalling?

 

[kingrollo]

Are you trying to get me to click the DM site? How do you know what the Daily Mail says?
I really don't see the vaccination programme as a political issue, but maybe that's naive.
I do suggest you stick to topic and neither indulge in oblique ad hominems nor ascribe to me views which I have not expressed.
Please research a better figure (accurate will not be available) for the level of protection that vaccination gives after 'x' days and share it with us.

Forgive me if I am wrong but you appear to post a load irrelevant stuff . Then when taken task - scream its off topic.

You say you don't believe the vaccination is political ? - yet to quote you a couple of posts back:-

"What is the view of "opposition politicians" to the UK's approach to vaccine procurement now I wonder? "Forgivable?"

 

[vickster]

Might it mean she wants to advise him to shift into the large ring and keep pedalling?

Ummm? Huh?

 

[midlife]

It really isn't a question of what I prefer - it what is accurate. - and I don't believe 80% protection 14 days after the first jab is.

I thought that this has been covered here. 89-92 percent efficacy if you discount infections in the first 14 days