COVID Vaccine !

[accountantpete]

Maybe this has already been shared. One might presume that the supplies to the other home nations are planned to follow a similar pattern.
View attachment 569456
Since the clear direction is to give a second dose of the same vaccine, we also might assume that nearly all the Pfizer vaccine projected to be received in late Jan to end March will be used (needed) for the second doses (NB < 12 weeks) for those vaccinated in December and the first week of January (with the Pfizer one, before Oxford AZ was distributed).

This is the "deleted" internal Scottish Government post.

It implies that the whole of the UK will have been vaccinated (1&2) by the end of June - if you extend the figures for the whole of the UK assuming equal vaccine delivery to the regions.

 

[Ajax Bay]

https://www.linkedin.com/posts/covi...vid19-cases-activity-6754377724527181824-jX-d
Before everyone gets excited about the vaccine letting us all run wild, it's worth looking at this modelling. Vaccination, even if the government meets its optimistic targets for the at-risk, will only reduce death by about 20% by April. In the meantime, lockdown is likely to have done its job and reduced it by a lot more than that. So don't expect it to be releases earlier.

COVID-19 Actuaries Response Group:
"We expect that the impact of a successful vaccination programme will be most obvious in the hospitalisation and deaths data, with material reductions in hospitalisation starting from mid-February and reported deaths in early March. The impact on cases is expected to be seen sooner, but the reduction is likely to be smaller."
So if we might reasonably expect the vaccination programme to result in "material reductions in hospitalisation starting from mid-February" might that be a reasonable timeframe (end of half term), thanks to a combination of the successful vaccination programme and other measures, to start easing the restrictions and allowing society to prosper and become more productive? Or would that be too early? Vaccinations will continue apace, with the 5.6M in groups 5 and 6 to be complete by early in March.

 

[accountantpete]

COVID-19 Actuaries Response Group:
"We expect that the impact of a successful vaccination programme will be most obvious in the hospitalisation and deaths data, with material reductions in hospitalisation starting from mid-February and reported deaths in early March. The impact on cases is expected to be seen sooner, but the reduction is likely to be smaller."
So if we might reasonably expect the vaccination programme to result in "material reductions in hospitalisation starting from mid-February" might that be a reasonable timeframe (end of half term), thanks to a combination of the successful vaccination programme and other measures, to start easing the restrictions and allowing society to prosper and become more productive? Or would that be too early? Vaccinations will continue apace, with the 5.6M in groups 5 and 6 to be complete by early in March.

I think they are rapidly coming to the conclusion that a full vaccination programme has to be undertaken before any easing because of the risk of variants - look like May/June as I think they will boost existing Vaccines and have another few coming on tap from March - May. I'm not sure what that does to the international picture - probably still as it is now.

 

[kingrollo]

COVID-19 Actuaries Response Group:
"We expect that the impact of a successful vaccination programme will be most obvious in the hospitalisation and deaths data, with material reductions in hospitalisation starting from mid-February and reported deaths in early March. The impact on cases is expected to be seen sooner, but the reduction is likely to be smaller."
So if we might reasonably expect the vaccination programme to result in "material reductions in hospitalisation starting from mid-February" might that be a reasonable timeframe (end of half term), thanks to a combination of the successful vaccination programme and other measures, to start easing the restrictions and allowing society to prosper and become more productive? Or would that be too early? Vaccinations will continue apace, with the 5.6M in groups 5 and 6 to be complete by early in March.

You are really keen to get this lockdown lifted aren't you ?

We don't yet know if vaccinated people can still pass on the virus

Society can prosper - my arse ! - share prices and dividends more like !!!

 

[Ajax Bay]

We don't yet know if vaccinated people can still pass on the virus

Good point (and on topic). What do we know about that? And if we don't know then can we draw on experience from other diseases?
When I get to the bottom of a hard climb I've never attempted before, I attack it, determined to get up without putting a foot down. I draw on my experience of other hard climbs, knowing that at the hardest moments just getting each pedal over top dead centre will see me through (and that getting off and walking will wear down my road cleats (and therefore to be avoided)). Has worked for me.
Generally if people are vaccinated against other viruses, a high proportion then don't catch it, and the transmission from a vaccinated person to one who isn't is typically low. Have I got that right?

 

[Mo1959]

Generally if people are vaccinated against other viruses, a high proportion then don't catch it, and the transmission from a vaccinated person to one who isn't is typically low. Have I got that right?

The problem is that they seem to think you can still catch it but with milder symptoms even with the vaccine......and also even the experts at this moment in time don't seem to know if you can still transmit it even if vaccinated. I guess it's going to be wait and see.

 

[kingrollo]

Good point (and on topic). What do we know about that? And if we don't know then can we draw on experience from other diseases?
When I get to the bottom of a hard climb I've never attempted before, I attack it, determined to get up without putting a foot down. I draw on my experience of other hard climbs, knowing that at the hardest moments just getting each pedal over top dead centre will see me through (and that getting off and walking will wear down my road cleats (and therefore to be avoided)). Has worked for me.
Generally if people are vaccinated against other viruses, a high proportion then don't catch it, and the transmission from a vaccinated person to one who isn't is typically low. Have I got that right?

We don't know. As I understand it goes like this [Happy to be corrected if this is wrong]

1.You get infected
2. 3 - 5 days later you get symptoms
3.14 days later you immune system kicks in and is ready to fight the virus
4. After 3 weeks most people start to feel better.

The vaccine idea - is that point 3 happens earlier - so you don't feel as sick - if you feel sick at all. The point is though you pick up the virus - can you still pass it on ? - All the testing of the vaccines has been that it stops people getting sick - its only now they are testing whether vaccinated people can still pass it on.

 

[tom73]

Yes the vaccine program is mostly going ok, working and great to see and welcome news. Most of the views and media reporting on the vaccine and its roll out is for a mostly white , financially ok or about coping. The view from part's of society we don't like to talk about or other minority groups is not that rosey. The fact that so many members of the local community are getting involved shows one thing locally they want it to work. If you want the vaccine program to work as I have said before it has to be planned and delivered locally. Not planned and controlled by central government by people who never need to access the service or have a clue about who needs to access it. All they need to do is buy the stuff and get it delivered then primary care can do the rest it's well tested and effective. As with many thing in this pandemic side line, centralise and design by the elite is no way to go.

I don't want to a vaccination program that get's one up on "Johny foreign" with look how good we are going. I want an effective , targeted and Clinical sound vaccination program which results in a sound public health outcome. Which after all vaccinations are suppose to be a public health issue.

As for the rest I've also said before I don't care who in charge as none of them would have done much better I just wanted someone who has the bottle to ask for help and work with professionals across the health service to deal with this. Not side line or stick finger your ears and piss about.

 

[Flick of the Elbow]

its only now they are testing whether vaccinated people can still pass it on.

Yes, that’s my understanding too. I’ve read that healthcare staff are the main focus of these studies now, they are getting the vaccine in the first wave and they are also being tested frequently. This will provide the data on which they can judge, over the coming weeks, whether the vaccine is having any effect on transmission.

 

[Ajax Bay]

even the experts at this moment in time don't seem to know if you can still transmit it even if vaccinated. I guess it's going to be wait and see.

MSN short: "Many vaccines—including those for hepatitis A and B, measles, chickenpox, and human papillomavirus—do prevent people both from becoming ill and from passing the pathogen to others."
They don't know, but can draw inferences from similar diseases, to inform an assessment of likelihood. Such assessments will be taken into account (along with much else) when national and regional precaution regimes are being revised. It's entirely right for scientists to say they don't know (if they don't) but life (generally not individually) and societal choices are not monochrome.
Anyway, longer from MSN:
Susanna Naggie, an associate professor of medicine in the Duke University School of Medicine who specializes in infectious diseases: “With flu there is asymptomatic disease, but not at the level we see with SARS-CoV-2. This makes it particularly important to understand whether COVID-19 vaccines will prevent asymptomatic infections."
Jeffrey Bethony, a professor of microbiology, immunology, and tropical medicine at the George Washington University School of Medicine and Health Sciences who works on vaccines for parasitic diseases and HIV:
"Many vaccines—including those for hepatitis A and B, measles, chickenpox, and human papillomavirus—do prevent people both from becoming ill and from passing the pathogen to others. Generally, we believe that if you have a vaccine that prevents disease, you’re likely preventing infections as well, but you can’t assume that that’s 100 percent [the case].
"Some pathogens can infect and reproduce in vaccinated people for short periods of time without making them sick, including . . . meningitis and whooping cough. This is also a problem for vaccines under development for parasitic illnesses such as malaria, schistosomiasis, and hookworm infection. The vaccine protects people against the most serious clinical manifestations of the disease but it doesn’t entirely stop infection. You still might have a person who is mildly infected, and they’re still able to spread the disease.”

 

[matticus]

So:
the worst case - vaccine doesn't dampen transmission. But as the roll-out continues people will eventually stop getting seriously sick in any number much greater than background serious illness (cancer, RTAs etc etc). The youngest groups - even if they all refused the vac! - will barely register on the serious illness stats. This might take many months, but: Good news!
the best case - vaccine also damps down transmission. So we'll get exponential reduction rate in cases as the roll-out proceed. Very very good news! :-)

 

[PK99]

Interesting to reflect on this sober and balanced piece [ ] from the Guardian

The UK’s decision not to join an EU plan to distribute a potential coronavirus vaccine to its most vulnerable citizens has been described as “unforgivable” and condemned by health charities and opposition politicians.

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/jul/10/uk-poised-to-shun-eu-coronavirus-vaccine-scheme

 

[Unkraut]

I don't want to a vaccination program that get's one up on "Johnny foreign" with look how good we are going.

Funny you should mention that. The British government took a calculated risk in ordering vaccine early. The ability to start vaccination early is of benefit to everyone, as the virus knows no borders.

The EU in the form of the European Commission, on the other hand, seems to have briefly lost the plot and reacted slowly. Biontech actually offered to double its offer of its vaccine to the EU, only to have this turned down! The result is a lack of vaccine available. This was inevitable at the beginning, and we now have hindsight. It's also true that EU solidarity was important as well. Someone got it wrong somewhere though.

In Germany this has led to the 400 000 injections per day capacity created being stymied by lack of vaccine. People turning up and being sent home. Whether the EU's slowness has made a massive difference to this I don't know, but I hope there will be an enquiry afterwards to make sure this doesn't ever happen again. Being too risk averse in a pandemic is not the right policy, and any money "wasted" on an ineffective vaccine would have been peanuts compared to the amounts needed to protect the economy from the effects of lockdown due to the ongoing infection rate.

 

[PK99]

Funny you should mention that. The British government took a calculated risk in ordering vaccine early. The ability to start vaccination early is of benefit to everyone, as the virus knows no borders.

The EU in the form of the European Commission, on the other hand, seems to have briefly lost the plot and reacted slowly. Biontech actually offered to double its offer of its vaccine to the EU, only to have this turned down! The result is a lack of vaccine available. This was inevitable at the beginning, and we now have hindsight. It's also true that EU solidarity was important as well. Someone got it wrong somewhere though.

In Germany this has led to the 400 000 injections per day capacity created being stymied by lack of vaccine. People turning up and being sent home. Whether the EU's slowness has made a massive difference to this I don't know, but I hope there will be an enquiry afterwards to make sure this doesn't ever happen again. Being too risk averse in a pandemic is not the right policy, and any money "wasted" on an ineffective vaccine would have been peanuts compared to the amounts needed to protect the economy from the effects of lockdown due to the ongoing infection rate.

Interesting choice of phrase @Unkraut , !
From the article I cross-posted 1 up from your post


“The crisis does not stop at any national border. It is about time the prime minister started showing leadership, including fully participating in all EU efforts to secure critical medical supplies and a vaccine.”

 

[kingrollo]

MSN short: "Many vaccines—including those for hepatitis A and B, measles, chickenpox, and human papillomavirus—do prevent people both from becoming ill and from passing the pathogen to others."
They don't know, but can draw inferences from similar diseases, to inform an assessment of likelihood. Such assessments will be taken into account (along with much else) when national and regional precaution regimes are being revised. It's entirely right for scientists to say they don't know (if they don't) but life (generally not individually) and societal choices are not monochrome.
Anyway, longer from MSN:
Susanna Naggie, an associate professor of medicine in the Duke University School of Medicine who specializes in infectious diseases: “With flu there is asymptomatic disease, but not at the level we see with SARS-CoV-2. This makes it particularly important to understand whether COVID-19 vaccines will prevent asymptomatic infections."
Jeffrey Bethony, a professor of microbiology, immunology, and tropical medicine at the George Washington University School of Medicine and Health Sciences who works on vaccines for parasitic diseases and HIV:
"Many vaccines—including those for hepatitis A and B, measles, chickenpox, and human papillomavirus—do prevent people both from becoming ill and from passing the pathogen to others. Generally, we believe that if you have a vaccine that prevents disease, you’re likely preventing infections as well, but you can’t assume that that’s 100 percent [the case].
"Some pathogens can infect and reproduce in vaccinated people for short periods of time without making them sick, including . . . meningitis and whooping cough. This is also a problem for vaccines under development for parasitic illnesses such as malaria, schistosomiasis, and hookworm infection. The vaccine protects people against the most serious clinical manifestations of the disease but it doesn’t entirely stop infection. You still might have a person who is mildly infected, and they’re still able to spread the disease.”

They is no way they are going to use other disease transmission rates for an active pandemic. We are probably in lockdown until March - Deal with it or get help.

PS:- the internet is a big place - you will always find some academic to support a niche POV - it really doesn't prove anything.