COVID Vaccine !

[roubaixtuesday]

Guess which country is currently vaccinating a higher rate of its population than anywhere else?

Yup. Chile.

 

[Ajax Bay]

Here's a good synopis of Chile's vaccination effort, from procurement to heath system;
https://www.vox.com/22309620/chile-covid-19-vaccination-campaign
I like the #YoMeVacuno (“I get vaccinated”) cards idea.
Edit: Heading to catch up with the UK by end of June (in % of population first dose terms) as the virus case levels rise with the onset of winter, proper.

 

[Ajax Bay]

UK's rate is 'artificially' suppressed this last fortnight but will jump to double current 'per 100' level in the next 10 days: but still not as good as Chile.

 

[Andy in Germany]

UK's rate is 'artificially' suppressed this last fortnight but will jump to double current 'per 100' level in the next 10 days: but still not as good as Chile.

Bear in mind that graph shows the first dose only.

 

[roubaixtuesday]

Bear in mind that graph shows the first dose only.

The graph, I think, is total doses, they don't differentiate whether 1st or 2nd. Could be wrong, but note Israel is over 100%.

Chile is actually due to overtake UK probably this week.

 

[Ajax Bay]

Bear in mind that graph shows the first dose only.

As @rt says, 'all doses'.
Bear in mind that effectiveness of the second dose is improved if the gap is extended, science and some evidence suggests. Do you want half the number with 90+% effective protection (say 10M) or 20M with 80%? Do the math. Make the 'bet'. China is a nation obsessed with gambling. What have they done?

 

[Ajax Bay]

By end June Chile aims to have given at least one dose to 15M (of its 19M population) - 78%.
I wonder if Chile is adopting a 12 week gap? Reading between the vox article lines, it looks as if they're being fairly relaxed about the gap, with people being told, come anytime.
By end June UK expects (my estimate) to have given at least one dose to 52M (of its 67M population) - 77% (as well as second doses to 36M).

 

[mjr]

On the basis of what's been said publicly by NHS England et al, I'm using 4M a day (first and second doses) from next week till the end of June. Note: Peak rate was just over 3M a week (440k per day) in early Feb.

Where have they said 4M a day, please? I looked and can't find it and that is a very big increase, moving towards NYC 1947 smallpox vaccination territory.

 

[Pale Rider]

The EU continues to squabble over vaccines without getting much done.

And while Brussels fiddles, the rest of the EU doesn't exactly burn, but cases are rising in many countries.

It's still not clear to me if the vaccine helps reduce transmission, but UK cases continue to drop so maybe our vaccine advantage is playing a role.

That drop must play into the death rate, which reinforces my view that eventually death rates will be similar for comparable developed countries.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-56361840

 

[Ajax Bay]

Where have they said 4M a day, please? I looked and can't find it and that is a very big increase, moving towards NYC 1947 smallpox vaccination territory.

Here's the NHSE letter NHS England: "From 11 March, vaccine supply will increase substantially and be sustained at a higher level for several weeks." Also Pulse reported this:
"NHS England: Therefore, from the week of 15 March we are now asking systems to plan and support all vaccination centres and local vaccination services to deliver around twice the level of vaccine available in the week of 1 March."
If anything it'll be more than 4M a week (double the 2.1M 7-day average rate in the week of 1 March). Of these 4M, about a quarter will be second doses.
I said on 3 March:

Vaccine supply fluctuations
@marinyork has heralded this possibility before.
Bad news: Dip in supply next week (Mon 8 Mar)
Seriously good news: Doubled supply (cf early Feb) from 15 Mar for 'several' weeks (till well after Easter) will mean the daily rate of giving first doses can return to 300k+ concurrently with the necessary second doses (for those on the 12 week gap regime: first doses from 20 December onwards). The mid-April estimate for all over 50s (plus CEV and UHC U/50) to have received their first dose now looks a conservative one - the end of the first 'sprint'.
NHS England: "From 11 March, vaccine supply will increase substantially and be sustained at a higher level for several weeks.
<snip>

 

[mjr]

Isn't that 4M a week, not day?

 

[roubaixtuesday]

my view that eventually death rates will be similar for comparable developed countries.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-56361840

I recall we have a wager on UK vs Germany death rates.

https://www.cyclechat.net/threads/why-i-voted-for-brexit.271529/page-28#post-6304384

I think Paddy Power would already have paid up.

 

[Ajax Bay]

Isn't that 4M a week, not day?

Correct. At 4M a weekday we'd have all adults (plus 16 and 17s) first doses (78% ie all over 16s) by 25 March and herd immunity by mid April!! Now that would be 'acceleration'. [I have amended that post - thank you.]

 

[Ajax Bay]

More good news: "Positive vaccine sentiment has increased to 94% in the latest period (24 to 28 February), from 78% when the data were first collected (10 to 13 December 2020)." (ONS Coronavirus and vaccine hesitancy, Great Britain: 13 January to 7 February 2021)
If this is reflected in reality, that would be excellent. Bear in mind the modelling for releasing restrictions progressively assumed (relied in part) on rather more pessimistic %ages (85% over 50 and 75% under 50 iirc).

This level of uptake also mean that UK herd immunity is more achievable (other key factors are: transmissibility of whatever is the by then dominant variant (looking like B.1.1.7), the actual reduction in transmission of the virus which vaccines afford, the by then depressive effect on 'R' of whatever restrictions remain).
Rugby calling!

 

[mjr]

AstraZeneca informs EU of failing to supply the full amount again. Blames export restrictions (do they mean the UK and US?) https://www.thejournal.ie/astrazeneca-vaccine-delivery-shortfall-5380507-Mar2021/

Just as well the EU have bought more Pfizer.