COVID Vaccine !

[houblon]

And that's ="Ajax Bay, post: 6344002, member: 44950"]
Politicians, eh? They can offer the dream. Feasible? See below.
USA have vaccinated 98M; 54M in the last month and the weeky rate seems pretty steady (13M).
USA population is 331M, so over 16s and @ 80% acceptance = 214M to give two doses to: 428M doses required.
98M so far. 330M to go at 13M per week = 6 months. To crack it by 4 July they'll need to ramp up quickly to over 19M a week.
[/QUOTE]

And is 80% acceptance realistic? I believe there's considerable scepticism in France and Italy, and the US is home to a lot of conspiracy theorists.

 

[houblon]

Except the vaccines isn’t guaranteed for sure to stop catching or transmission

Not guaranteed for sure, for sure, but the more of a population is vaccinated the harder it is for the virus to find hosts.

 

[lane]

Except the vaccines isn’t guaranteed for sure to stop catching or transmission

There is a lot of evidence not that it does.

 

[vickster]

There is a lot of evidence not that it does.

Let’s wait and see what happens now the schools are back and lockdowns are lifted. hence, I said not guaranteed

 

[lane]

Since no children and many parents are not yet vaccinated I would anticipate rates will increase - at least temporarily. The reduction in rates has almost levelled off already before the impact of schools is apparent. That does not mean the vaccine fails to prevent transmission.

 

[MontyVeda]

Not sure what's going on with the vaccine roll out up here. As I understand it, we wait to be notified that the vaccine is available for our age group and book an appointment.

Yet I know of a handful of friends and acquaintances who aren't health workers or in a vulnerable group (as far as I'm aware) and are a few years younger than me (51) who've had their vaccines.

 

[classic33]

Not sure what's going on with the vaccine roll out up here. As I understand it, we wait to be notified that the vaccine is available for our age group and book an appointment.

Yet I know of a handful of friends and acquaintances who aren't health workers or in a vulnerable group (as far as I'm aware) and are a few years younger than me (51) who've had their vaccines.

There's some pre-school kids that have received their first jab near me. How or why I don't know.

 

[C R]

There's some pre-school kids that have received their first jab near me. How or why I don't know.

Perhaps they are part of the AZ trial for under 18.

 

[classic33]

Perhaps they are part of the AZ trial for under 18.

Possible, but these are 2 - 3 year olds.
With parents pushing for the second dose.

 

[mikeIow]

Jabbed this morning....very efficient organisation
SWMBO turned feverish about 5 hours later.
Paracetamol helped....then the shakes returned. Second dose now, & she's off to bed.
I've got a bit of a dull head, & feeling like I'm warming up now........but who knows what the night & tomorrow bring, eh
Still, jobby jobbed

 

[lane]

Study suggests Pfizer reduces transmission between 30 and 54 percent after two doses.

Although actual results likely to be better.


https://news.sky.com/story/covid-19...ission-by-more-than-half-study-shows-12243898

 

[lane]

According to various press reports all over 40s will be offered vaccine by Easter and all adults offered a vaccine by early June.

 

[Ajax Bay]

According to various press reports all over 40s will be offered vaccine by Easter and all adults offered a vaccine by early June.

There are 8.4M 40-49s (of which maybe 2M have been vaccinated in Groups 2,4,6). My excellent estimate (see recent black background graph) is that the UK should have delivered enough first jabs to vaccinate all over 50s (JCVI Gps 1-9) by Easter Monday and all over 40s by May Day PH (38M total). After that there are another 15M for 18-39 year olds. May crack 'all adults O/18' by 4 July. Will be earlier if the uptake percentage is lower in the junior age groups.

23.3M first doses have been administered. To get to 'all over 40s by Easter' would need a daily rate of 800k a day (>13% for second jabs) from 14 March onwards.
On the basis of what's been said publicly by NHS England et al, I'm using 4M a [Edit] weekday (first and second doses) from next week till the end of June. Note: Peak rate was just over 3M a week (440k per day) in early Feb.

I note the word "offered" has been used - and as others have said and reiterated, 'offered' is lugubrious in this context. Maybe the reports you mention fail to recognise the (average) 2.5M jabs a week needed from Easter to mid June for second jabs. Either that or they are reporting to frame the 'early release of restrictions' clamour, or being manipulated by people/'informants' who similarly think that vaccination successes will get the lockdown dates brought forward (it won't - it's cases and hospitalisations, and no emergence of significant VoC which will be considered).

 

[lane]

Report in Telegraph (aggressively anti lockdown agenda) is talking about 1 million a day to achieve the Easter target. Same report talks about pressure for early opening.

Report in Times re early June.

 

[Ajax Bay]

I read elsewhere that 90% of both JCVI Group 5 (65-70) and Group 6 (UHC and and) have received their first jab. If that's true that is an excellent uptake; quite excellent.