@Unkraut what do you know about the three sets of antibody tests being conducted in Germany presently?
What do you know about this gangelt study where 14% of the population had had the virus (not that this is representative as they've had festivals and a lot of mixing)?
Yes, this is the study being done by Prof Streeckt in Heinsberg/Gangelt the hot spot in Germany. The provisional results were given at a press conference two days ago where the figure of almost 15% for possible herd immunity was touted.
Yesterday the study came in for some serious criticism from other virologists. From what I have read, the anti-body tests could have picked up as positive those who have had common colds in the last few weeks, these are also due to corona viruses though harmless. You need to do extensive tests to differentiate the new virus from the common cold ones, and this wasn't done.
Further, households were chosen were at least one member had been infected. This means the risk of infection is higher than would be the case in the general population so only one person per household should be used, otherwise you get an exaggerated percentage of the population as a whole who might be immune. Conversely the death rate is reduced by too great a factor.
The criticisms seem to be based on uncertainty caused by Prof Streeck failing to publish his provisional results in writing but relying on a press conference rather than an attempt simply to discredit them. I think he needs to put this right.
I get the feeling, though I hope it won't happen, that politics is starting to influence the science a bit with the 'keeping the lockdown' side being challenged by those who think it reasonable to start relaxing it in stages.
