Coronavirus outbreak

[nickyboy]

Yes, this is the study being done by Prof Streeckt in Heinsberg/Gangelt the hot spot in Germany. The provisional results were given at a press conference two days ago where the figure of almost 15% for possible herd immunity was touted.

Yesterday the study came in for some serious criticism from other virologists. From what I have read, the anti-body tests could have picked up as positive those who have had common colds in the last few weeks, these are also due to corona viruses though harmless. You need to do extensive tests to differentiate the new virus from the common cold ones, and this wasn't done.

Further, households were chosen were at least one member had been infected. This means the risk of infection is higher than would be the case in the general population so only one person per household should be used, otherwise you get an exaggerated percentage of the population as a whole who might be immune. Conversely the death rate is reduced by too great a factor.

The criticisms seem to be based on uncertainty caused by Prof Streeck failing to publish his provisional results in writing but relying on a press conference rather than an attempt simply to discredit them. I think he needs to put this right.

I get the feeling, though I hope it won't happen, that politics is starting to influence the science a bit with the 'keeping the lockdown' side being challenged by those who think it reasonable to start relaxing it in stages.

I do think it's time for wider influences on the lockdown decisions than just the pure epidemiological science

What hasn't become clear to the man on the street is the economic impact of the lockdowns. We are looking at unprecedented levels of debt, unemployment and recession. In UK the Q2 GDP contraction will be somewhere between 15% and 25% and every month of lockdown adds GBP10bn debt, just from furloughing

We come out of this with enormous debt and that will have to be repaid eventually and that will lead to very difficult government spending decisions going forward

So, in summary, the politicians who have to make the hard decisions on when and how to release the lockdowns will have to carefully consider the economic implications of not doing so and there will be a trade-off between this and the health benefits of maintaining the lockdowns

 

[Joey Shabadoo]

So 1st we had the Health Secretary accuse health workers of miss using PPE.

To be fair we've had a health worker on this board say they had mis-used PPE
Through my sister I know of two incidents with PPE at a Scottish hospital;
1) An announcement was made that PPE had been delivered and was to be collected from a central point. By the time the nurses got there, the vast majority had been snaffled by office workers, caterers, builders working around the site etc
2) A manager at this hospital cancelled a delivery of PPE because it was outwith the action plan (the order was placed again a few days later)

The medical staff and support staff of the NHS are going above and beyond but we shouldn't forget that it is a massive bureaucracy being asked to cope with a once-in-a-century crisis and bureaucrats are really, really not good at encompassing change quickly. Supermarkets can cope because they are used to responding to market changes quickly (watch their product mix change overnight when a hot weekend is forecast). We need the politicians to be over-ruling the petty bureaucrats jealously guarding their own fiefdoms.

MPs do this day in day out because the vast majority of their constituency case load is helping constituents being thwarted by bureaucracy.

 

[Edwardoka]

James Felton (@JimMFelton) Tweeted:
They’re fiddling the numbers worse than we thought https://t.co/T583a6EnFu
View: https://twitter.com/JimMFelton/status/1249002951642877955?s=20

That's Numberwang!

 

[Rocky]

To be fair we've had a health worker on this board say they had mis-used PPE
Through my sister I know of two incidents with PPE at a Scottish hospital;
1) An announcement was made that PPE had been delivered and was to be collected from a central point. By the time the nurses got there, the vast majority had been snaffled by office workers, caterers, builders working around the site etc
2) A manager at this hospital cancelled a delivery of PPE because it was outwith the action plan (the order was placed again a few days later)

The medical staff and support staff of the NHS are going above and beyond but we shouldn't forget that it is a massive bureaucracy being asked to cope with a once-in-a-century crisis and bureaucrats are really, really not good at encompassing change quickly. Supermarkets can cope because they are used to responding to market changes quickly (watch their product mix change overnight when a hot weekend is forecast). We need the politicians to be over-ruling the petty bureaucrats jealously guarding their own fiefdoms.

MPs do this day in day out because the vast majority of their constituency case load is helping constituents being thwarted by bureaucracy.

I missed the post about a health worker misusing PPE, could you point me to it? Thanks

 

[Joey Shabadoo]

I missed the post about a health worker misusing PPE, could you point me to it? Thanks

I have had and continue to have conflicting information about what type of PPE I have to wear and when. However, as I said a couple of days ago, our PPE shortage is largely self inflicted. We have unnecessarily ploughed through a ton of PPE that turned up about a week ago.

 

[Eziemnaik]

So in the meantime, in the biggest outlier in Europe sky didnt fall, Swedes get to keep on working, economy doesn't get battered, they do not have a problem of exit startegy or lack of it

 

[marinyork]

So, in summary, the politicians who have to make the hard decisions on when and how to release the lockdowns will have to carefully consider the economic implications of not doing so and there will be a trade-off between this and the health benefits of maintaining the lockdowns

The mental health bill from lockdowns continuing a long time will itself run into billions and uncalculable cost to lives. The collective mental health cost to those health and care workers who make it through will be large. Similarly a minority of the many who have survived ICU are going to need very expensive things like therapy and treatment for PTSD or other manifestations of trauma.

The behavioural science side of lockdown hasn't been discussed much in the UK. Italy has already extended things to 3rd May and some problems there of people running out of food or discontent in the south.

 

[marinyork]

A basic analysis of housing density and coronavirus

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2...ing-hardest-modern-equivalent-victorian-slums

 

[Yellow Fang]

This thing about not being allowed to sunbathe in parks seems a bit weird to me. Maybe some parks are too small for the number of people who want to sunbathe. I jogged through one of our local parks. I reckon at least 10,000 people would have room to sunbathe there with 30 square metres around each person. I am sure that would be enough for all the people living in the high rise flats near by.

 

[kingrollo]

Was reading last night that the lockdown and possible extension of the lockdown has big support amongst the general public.

In my opinion it would be polictal suicide the lift the lockdown whilst we are reporting around 1000 deaths per day.

 

[kingrollo]

On the subject of mental health - I can't think of anything worse for MH than the touted tracking app - which alerts you if you have been in proximity of someone who subsequently tests positive for covid 19...

As an anxiety sufferer heaven knows what that would do to me !

 

[Eziemnaik]

How about a vaccine cert, you wouldnt be allowed to travel or go back to work without it?

 

[roubaixtuesday]

How about a vaccine cert, you wouldnt be allowed to travel or go back to work without it?

Lack of a vaccine seems a bit of a stumbling block...?

 

[mjr]

Supermarkets can cope because they are used to responding to market changes quickly (watch their product mix change overnight when a hot weekend is forecast).

Supermarkets still have shortages of flour, rice, pasta, eggs, tinned goods, tissues and random other items. Toilet rolls were missing for weeks. They don't seem to be responding quickly enough.

Then on the organisational side, there are almost no delivery slots unless registered vulnerable, few collection slots, long queues to get in, long queues surrounded by clothes to get out. I don't think the supermarkets have shown themselves to be the best option but annoyingly they are now the only open shop selling certain essential items, forcing even more people to risk infection in their queues.

I would not wish UK supermarket management on NHS logistics.

 

[mjr]

How about a vaccine cert, you wouldnt be allowed to travel or go back to work without it?

Vulnerable to forgeries and probably encourages a big brother database.