Coronavirus outbreak

[roubaixtuesday]

Another false statement from @MarkF

If there are no excess deaths then there is no pandemic.

WHO definition:
A pandemic is defined as “an epidemic occurring worldwide, or over a very wide area, crossing international boundaries and usually affecting a large number of people”. The classical definition includes nothing about population immunity, virology or disease severity.

By this definition, pandemics can be said to occur annually in each of the temperate southern and northern hemispheres, given that seasonal epidemics cross international boundaries and affect a large number of people. However, seasonal epidemics are not considered pandemics

You're just making things up.

And neither I, nor anyone else can predict what deaths will be by xmas, because it depends how we respond.

 

[classic33]

Why is Sweden going against what he said would happen, since mid September, if he was correct on what he says.

 

[roubaixtuesday]

You forgot your post?

Give me a link, go ahead.

 

[Rusty Nails]

How deadly is Covid?

A genuine question. Do you read any scientific reports that disagree with your opinion or do you look for those experts that you agree with? This is not just about your point of view as I think that many people, with different opinions, have a pov and then quote the evidence that goes along with it, rather than weighing everything up and then making up their minds.

I must admit I do not have any magic solution about how we get out of this, and no answer to the questions about how bad the problem is. I read expert A and he/she seems to sound reasonable and then I read expert B and they come up with an opposite view.

I am not going to spend hours a day analysing all the evidence, or whether A or B has stronger credentials, but I will just carry on mostly sticking to the guidelines and quietly moaning about the restrictions I like least. There are enough experts who get it wrong without me sticking my two-pennorth in.

It appears to me that so far no government appears to have handled it well except those few who didn't waste time getting started on their approach back in March. The rest, including us despite our government's claims to know what they are doing, are still faffing about trying to put sticking plasters on all the outbreaks.

 

[tom73]

As far as I am aware the NHS should be running 90% of services pre covid.....

Back in March the service I sort of run for an NHS hospital was shut down, I was placed on a redeployment register. Suggested fatalities for Cumbria 5000

I planned for the expected storm and sorted out my service in case I didn't survive. Put everything in order so that someone could pick up the pieces.

Pondered the songs for my funeral as I was in the firing line.

Went into work every day as did all patient facing NHS staff here and waited... Worked remote while at work.

Still go into work every day trying to max out what I can do to treat patients in the circumstances.

I guess this is repeated throughout the NHS?

You'd be right it's what you and other do and have done from the start. Working day to day not knowing what may come and did better than many expected. Just in time to do it all again it's going to be a long winter all round. Me and Mrs 73 had the what if chat and talked about plans if the time came. Something which is not something you expect to do just because work suddenly got that bad. Much of the NHS is running at high levels of normal but just as things get going along came the rise in cases. In recent days two large teaching hospitals round my way have had little choice to cancel all elective surgery. They are not the only ones to have yet again make hard choices. The health cost of covid much is still not known will quite possibly way out weigh economic impact.

 

[roubaixtuesday]

He declared the US pandemic over on the 22nd August, with 170,000 deaths.

He declared the US pandemic over on the 22nd August, with 170,000 deaths.

He has been consistently and spectacularly wrong from the very start.

https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.la...coronavirus-outbreak-nobel-laureate?_amp=true

https://www.google.com/amp/s/liorpa...21/the-lethal-nonsense-of-michael-levitt/amp/

So it's no surprise that @MarkF uses him as a source.

 

[MarkF]

Give me a link, go ahead.

You know by now how useless I am at linking, but I'm trying, it was recent and my reply to you was "It's just not credible" Tbf you were quoting a (bonkers) prediction/projection.

 

[Rusty Nails]

You know by now how useless I am at linking, but I'm trying, it was recent and my reply to you was "It's just not credible" Tbf you were quoting a (bonkers) prediction/projection.

That is not how it works.

You are fine at linking to those people who you agree with, then pathetically say you are useless at linking when asked to back up some claim you just drop in.

 

[roubaixtuesday]

You know by now how useless I am at linking, but I'm trying, it was recent and my reply to you was "It's just not credible" Tbf you were quoting a (bonkers) prediction/projection

This is aimed at me, not @classic

So. You're claiming a post of mine which you can't locate was bonkers...

How about rather than half remembered posts you can't even find, you acknowledge the three completely false posts you made directly above, which I've given you reputable sources directly contradicting?

 

[MarkF]

A genuine question. Do you read any scientific reports that disagree with your opinion or do you look for those experts that you agree with? This is not just about your point of view as I think that many people, with different opinions, have a pov and then quote the evidence that goes along with it, rather than weighing everything up and then making up their minds.

I must admit I do not have any magic solution about how we get out of this, and no answer to the questions about how bad the problem is. I read expert A and he/she seems to sound reasonable and then I read expert B and they come up with an opposite view.

I am not going to spend hours a day analysing all the evidence, or whether A or B has stronger credentials, but I will just carry on mostly sticking to the guidelines and quietly moaning about the restrictions I like least. There are enough experts who get it wrong without me sticking my two-pennorth in.

It appears to me that so far no government appears to have handled it well except those few who didn't waste time getting started on their approach back in March. The rest, including us despite our government's claims to know what they are doing, are still faffing about trying to put sticking plasters on all the outbreaks.

Of course I do! I read the same as everybody on here and flip flop all the time, but I also read other things, that (again) were prompted by a doctor and it led from there. Into a world of censorship and distinguished people being silenced, this is very alarming to me, something is not right when dissenting views are tech (£) quashed. I like to believe (still) that it's an almighty mess up but carrying on, we'll kill more than the virus would ever have done, Same as my opinion from the start.

 

[Rusty Nails]

Of course I do! I read the same as everybody on here and flip flop all the time, but I also read other things, that (again) were prompted by a doctor and it led from there. Into a world of censorship and distinguished people being silenced, this is very alarming to me, something is not right when dissenting views are tech (£) quashed. I like to believe (still) that it's an almighty mess up but carrying on, we'll kill more than the virus would ever have done, Same as my opinion from the start.

So basically a conspiracy theory supporter.

We see a lot of your flopping, but none of your flipping.

 

[tom73]

I've too much respect for those on the front line staff in hospitals to have a go at them. Now or ever.

If I'm blaming anyone, it's those higher up in offices/premises totally seperate from the hospitals. They seldom see day to day life, much less the night life in the hospital. Yet the orders trickle down from the top. Those are the ones I blame.

I know you have and It was not aimed at you I was generally trying to get the point across that how ever angry you are the NHS and it's staff are not the problem hard clinical choices had to be made with the tool they have. The lack of which is down to the government which now has a helping hand of covid to hide behind.

 

[MarkF]

So basically a conspiracy theory supporter.

We see a lot of your flopping, but none of your flipping.

Wow, for the umpteenth time, I am not a conspiracy supporter. I don't even know what they support.

 

[MarkF]

This is aimed at me, not @classic

So. You're claiming a post of mine which you can't locate was bonkers...

Here it is and total bollocks. 200k deaths by Xmas, no wonder people are scared witless.

So, just for @SkipdiverJohn here's a projection of what would happen if we let it rip from here.

View attachment 551444

That's 200k deaths by Christmas, peaking at ~5k per day. The drop in R at about December is herd immunity starting to kick in.

Now, this won't be acceptable so people will shield themselves from the carnage and/or govt will make strong interventions to mitigate. Obviously track and trace would be entirely overwhelmed.

Hopefully this informs why nobody in public health thinks this a good idea and why govt is prepared to do almost anything to avoid it.

A little explanation here


View: https://mobile.twitter.com/jamesannan/status/1314633560473710598

And these last few minutes are the reason I cannot repy all the time, and dip in and out, I'm drawn into multiple "conversations" with posters with the very same opinion. Not that that's wrong but I don't have the time....

 

[Rusty Nails]

Wow, for the umpteenth time, I am not a conspiracy supporter. I don't even know what they support.

That is exactly what the second part I highlighted is.