Coronavirus outbreak

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MarkF

Guru
Location
Yorkshire
Not having a go but can i ask, why do you think that there have been so many lockdowns of one degree or another, not just in england scotland wales northern ireland but all over europe and the world?

I am not conspiracy theorist so am struggling, it seems Sweden got it largely right with a sensible "light lockdown" so beyond reputation/career saving, why we are continuing down this crazy path I do not know.
 

Adam4868

Legendary Member
Don't know if anyone has read this..
https://www.theguardian.com/busines...-12-minute-covid-testing-service-within-weeks

120 quid ! whilst people have to travel for hours for a test.Surely if Boots can do this the goverment could have ?
Or is it just a case of capatalism at its best.
 

classic33

Leg End Member
I've given up trying to educate the Covidiots. As an ex copper friend says you can't polish a turd or educate an idiot.
It is very worrying how many people seem to think it's a conspiracy, that every country in the world is part of, and in being part of this conspiracy, has spent huge sums, damaging their own economy, incurring huge debt, all for some kind of scam against the people.
I trust the scientific evidence presented and am taking great care to not catch Covid and pass it on to my vulnerable wife.
But then the Flat Earthers seems to believe that one, along with the Moon landing was a fake brigade we now have Covid19 is a hoax. No wonder the USA elected Trump, people will believe anything, regardless of science, statistics and the number of deaths. I wonder how many people have bought into all of these conspiracies?
Meanwhile I'm taking off the tinfoil hat and going to have a chat with my mates from Venus, Jupiter and the Sirius system.
..
Instructions here
 

Moderators

Legendary Member
Moderator
Location
The Cronk
is that posted as a mod or is it a personal post?
I believe in free speech - and believe that the community can be relied upon to counter arguments if they are thought to need countering.
Plenty of posts are made on all sorts of topics without being immediately accompanied by "hard" or "scientific" data.

It's a Mods post - the Mods a/c is not used for personal posts. Mods posts sent from personal a/c's (it's often faster and easier to do this) are clearly marked with 'Mod note' etc

The Mods too believe in freedom of speech. And, yes, the community can be relied upon to counter arguments etc.

Re the CV pandemic. Early on it was recognised that the various related threads would not only serve as a debate format but as an information service for our members. To this end we asked that posts containing information represented as fact include the source where possible.

As it is not possible for us to check every post made we rely on other members to report posts where this is not the case. Where we think the report requires follow-up action we will intervene by eg cleaning up the post, deleting the post, pm'ing the member to clarify the situation or directly intervening in-thread etc.

In this particular instance we had received reports, the statement was very powerful and we simply asked for a source link from the posting member.

For the record this action neither confirms or denies the accuracy of the posted information from the Mods team perspective - it's simply requesting the verification of the validity/accuracy of the posted factually presented information on behalf of our other members.

The original Mods post contained what we think is the official state of affairs in England up to the included date from an already accepted source perspective for clarity on behalf of our members. It is not an attempt to enter the debate - apologies if it comes across that way.

As an aside; one of the things we have debated as a team is the presentation of information as fact or opinion. It's an unfinished debate but the current view would be that content presented as facts should continue to be supplied with the appropriate links or reference to source material. In the case of opinions maybe the posting member should make clear that this is purely personal opinion within the post?

Perhaps if anyone has any ideas that would help they could send us a Contact Us message - please do not do this from in-thread.
 

MarkF

Guru
Location
Yorkshire
A poster once asked where I got my information from and I answered honestly, I was first pointed to Dr Daniels by a doctor and it led from there..... The censorship of some alarmed me, they were being censored for offering a different opinion.

ONS stats, below normal spring due to light flu and late arriving virus, back to normal since June. Might stay below normal till week 52? Might not, but I think a lot of people who would now be entering hospital for "last days" died in spring and the covid arrivals appear to be far more robust than then. The death excess (% per population) is not likely for 2020 to stand out as an unusual year if this pattern continues.

ons stats.jpg
 
Location
London
I am not conspiracy theorist so am struggling, it seems Sweden got it largely right with a sensible "light lockdown" so beyond reputation/career saving, why we are continuing down this crazy path I do not know.
an honest thoughtful answer - thanks.
Jury maybe out on sweden's approach.
 

mjr

Comfy armchair to one person & a plank to the next
Didn't I post an earlier table showing the difficulty in locating a pandemic year? I am sure that I did. [...]
Well can you find it in a search? I didn't.

Elsewhere, I did find this graph of UK excess deaths. I think I can see 1958's Asian Flu pandemic, 1962's Big Freeze (and a particularly deadly London smog, the last before "clean air" laws) and 1969's Hong Kong Flu pandemic, among others. (edited because I got my flus backwards)
_99764678_chart-winter_deaths-sy81u-nc.png


" The overall death rate for England from 1 January to 31 July 2020 was the highest since 2009 "
https://www.bmj.com/content/370/bmj.m3348
... so although Mark's graph above looks like really bad figures, it might be fair to say that in a long-term context, 2020 is no record-breaking year.
A pandemic would have to be as-lethal-as-possible and completely mishandled by governments to overcome the whole-society improvements in general health, advances in healthcare and better homes compared to 100 years ago.

p.s. anyone know why week 35-36 is such a safe period?? I might plan my skydiving lessons around that ...
The summer Bank Holiday and generally schools restarting, when lots of people stop summer travels and any killer heatwave is usually long gone? Maybe you'd get hospital space more easily then, but I guess it depends how hard your skydiving fails. Maybe you'd get mortuary space more readily too!

an honest thoughtful answer - thanks.
Jury maybe out on sweden's approach.
Jury's still out on all approaches, really. Sweden hasn't done well so far, compared to its neighbours. But I echo the thanks to @MarkF for his answers, even if I think he's still incomplete and listening to people who have been very wrong and not acknowledged that AFAIK.
 
Last edited:
" The overall death rate for England from 1 January to 31 July 2020 was the highest since 2009 "
https://www.bmj.com/content/370/bmj.m3348
... so although Mark's graph above looks like really bad figures, it might be fair to say that in a long-term context, 2020 is no record-breaking year.
A pandemic would have to be as-lethal-as-possible and completely mishandled by governments to overcome the whole-society improvements in general health, advances in healthcare and better homes compared to 100 years ago.

Oh sure - but I've quoted a comparison with 2009 (I didn't have a graph for all years, sorry). I don't think long-term healthcare improvements will impact on those variations.
 

mjr

Comfy armchair to one person & a plank to the next
Oh sure - but I've quoted a comparison with 2009 (I didn't have a graph for all years, sorry). I don't think long-term healthcare improvements will impact on those variations.
Sorry: I was commenting on it not being record-breaking "in a long-term context". To break a long-term excess deaths record now would probably require something like a disaster rendering thousands of homes uninhabitable.
 

SpokeyDokey

68, & my GP says I will officially be old at 70!
Moderator
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