Coronavirus outbreak

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marinyork

Resting in suspended Animation
Location
Logopolis
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-asia-54504785

China doesn't mess about. Test a city of 9 million in 5 days based on a small number of cases.
 

MarkF

Guru
Location
Yorkshire
How are prisons managing this so well? Or is it lack of testing? I don't know but they are cramped, don't have live in staff, deliveries come and go, tradesman work in and out daily.

prisons.jpg
 

MarkF

Guru
Location
Yorkshire
Sadly that's not happening look at New Zealand they did it not just because they did what was needed but the PM made every believe it was a national issue and everyone was in together.

That sounds like Sweden could be described, but NZ still has the problem to deal with.
 

roubaixtuesday

self serving virtue signaller
The linear focus switch from deaths/spikes/second wave to "cases" is astonishing! Such is the scale of false positives, asymptomatic and past infections that UK "cases" are practically meaningless, especially as such a large % are collge/uni kids, but that's where the focus has shifted to for the doomsayers, because there's nothing much else. We know we are using a flawed system but it serves that purpose. The case farce is laid bare by the testing procedures in neighbouring Argentina and Uruguay, one has a severe "case" problem, one doesn't have one at all....you want "cases" in September? You'll get them every year, you want to scare people and keep the fear narrative going, then test students, easy peasy View attachment 551939
Maybe the government is jealous of The Netherlands and is hoping to eventually produce an even more bonkers case/death graph?^_^

View attachment 551942

Todays near useless restrictions won't make a jot of difference, just like the UK's lockdowns and daft illogical guidelines. I can go to multiple shops, the bank, the post office, the supermarket and the barbers but set foot over the threshold of a bar and I have to fill in a track and trace form? It's absolute nonsense. If you gave me lockdown that appeared to have a point, a step in a plan then I would not like it or agree with it, but I'd follow it, so although I disagree with @DCLane on the virus, I know exactly what he is alluding to....inner city Bradford is taking zero notice of any restrictions and never has done and it never will. Oliver Dowden's excrutiatingly poor performance on TV today shows the incompetence of this government, if he does't know the science behind the restrictions, who does? Well, it is just 4 days before they WILL have to show their science.... in court.

Good news.
John Loaniddis (Stanford Professor) who's been right since March downgrades the Covid IFR from 0.27% to 0.15-0.2%.
The WHO now condems lockdowns, but they flip flopped on masks so might support them next week depending on $$$$'s.
Average age of Covid victim now 82.4 years of age, older than average UK lifespan.
The Great Barrington Declaration, much the embarrassment of The Guardian and Google, is now no longer censored on the net.

The tide is turning.

Obviously Brandolini's law of bullsh1t applies to this lengthy mishmash of half-truths and wishful thinking.

But please, by all means, enumerate your first claim:

Such is the scale of false positives, asymptomatic and past infections that UK "cases" are practically meaningless

as those who refuse to do arithmetic are doomed to talking nonsense as you post richly illustrates.

As to the Netherlands - their patients are now being taken to Germany, so overrun are their hospitals.

And it's all doom mongering, naturally.
 

marinyork

Resting in suspended Animation
Location
Logopolis
Leadership is more than talking action at the right time, at the right level even if it's not popular. People have to believe everyone is in it together. Sadly that's not happening look at New Zealand they did it not just because they did what was needed but the PM made every believe it was a national issue and everyone was in together.

Politicians seemed to be spending a large amount of time in the summer what amounted to saying we wouldn't have a second wave, then this gradually changed from 'risk of' and 'spike' and 'surge' to not even talking about that any more. There was a political focus on schools, pubs and holidays and I genuinely think they (and not the universities themselves) spent very little time thinking about such things.

The government doesn't have anything to offer the population so it is hard persuading during a second wave and any severe restrictions. They can't keep them safe. The media are now starting to realise that some of the stuff previously implied about a vaccine is no more informed than if a 5 year old said it. So for tens of millions they can't offer them a vaccine. On treatments in layman's terms there aren't 'treatments' for covid-19 as to what parts of the general population would term it (as opposed to hospitalised treatments that have made a real difference) and may never be, or if there are they may never be widely available. The government can't promise to save jobs. It can't promise to create jobs. They can't run a mass testing programme. After around 8 months we're at 300,000 testing capacity per day. By the time you factor in workers who need to be tested and the political bungs to certain groups that have made it a bit higher in the testing pecking order than they might otherwise there's not that much left for the general population and that's dwarfed by winter and entire households wanting to be tested. There isn't really anything Boris can offer the population, so why would large swathes pay that much attention (beyond 'common sense' and looking after themselves) to what he says?
 

Poacher

Gravitationally challenged member
Location
Nottingham
How are prisons managing this so well? Or is it lack of testing? I don't know but they are cramped, don't have live in staff, deliveries come and go, tradesman work in and out daily.

View attachment 551944
The simple answer is that they aren't managing particularly well.
Lowdham Grange, 6km from me as the crow flies, has 875 prisoners, 500 staff and, as at 2 days ago, 215 cases.
This figure has undoubtedly increased in the past two days.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-nottinghamshire-54483142
 

tom73

Guru
Location
Yorkshire
Politicians seemed to be spending a large amount of time in the summer what amounted to saying we wouldn't have a second wave, then this gradually changed from 'risk of' and 'spike' and 'surge' to not even talking about that any more. There was a political focus on schools, pubs and holidays and I genuinely think they (and not the universities themselves) spent very little time thinking about such things.

The government doesn't have anything to offer the population so it is hard persuading during a second wave and any severe restrictions. They can't keep them safe. The media are now starting to realise that some of the stuff previously implied about a vaccine is no more informed than if a 5 year old said it. So for tens of millions they can't offer them a vaccine. On treatments in layman's terms there aren't 'treatments' for covid-19 as to what parts of the general population would term it (as opposed to hospitalised treatments that have made a real difference) and may never be, or if there are they may never be widely available. The government can't promise to save jobs. It can't promise to create jobs. They can't run a mass testing programme. After around 8 months we're at 300,000 testing capacity per day. By the time you factor in workers who need to be tested and the political bungs to certain groups that have made it a bit higher in the testing pecking order than they might otherwise there's not that much left for the general population and that's dwarfed by winter and entire households wanting to be tested. There isn't really anything Boris can offer the population, so why would large swathes pay that much attention (beyond 'common sense' and looking after themselves) to what he says?
They won't that's the problem who can being this back I don't know even if we can find someone the media would only rip them to bit's.
For not playing the game and not playing for sound bites.
 

marinyork

Resting in suspended Animation
Location
Logopolis
They won't that's the problem who can being this back I don't know even if we can find someone the media would only rip them to bit's.
For not playing the game and not playing for sound bites.

I look at what is speculated for tiers 2 and 3 and where is likely to be on those tiers, which is unhelpful to do, but I don't think that's sellable to the public. Find out after 3:30pm.
 

Rezillo

TwoSheds
Location
Suffolk
How are prisons managing this so well? Or is it lack of testing? I don't know but they are cramped, don't have live in staff, deliveries come and go, tradesman work in and out daily.

These figures are for incidents, not cases. It may be that there are fewer prison premises for incidents to occur in when compared to the other sectors. However, the percentages appear to be derived from the ARIs listed in the Week 40 Covid report - if so, it is only one incident, so it is still an interesting point unless that one incident is actually several hundred cases.

The problem with ARI comparisons is that it over-represents sectors where it is easy to identify an outbreak source and there is a large testing regime in place - e.g. care homes. In addition, the case numbers are not proportionate to the incident numbers. Case numbers of two in a single care home will qualify as an incident whereas as other sectors can have scores or more cases per incident.

ARIs also include non-Covid incidents and there was been some very poor press reporting of them, despite the figures also giving the Covid numbers in brackets or simply alongside the ARI totals

Re the 4% food outlet sector figure, even given the drawbacks of incident comparisons, in the week 37 report for week 36, before schools and unis kicked off, this sector recorded the third highest number of Covid-related ARIs and was only one fewer than the ARIs in the second highest category.

551948
 
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marinyork

Resting in suspended Animation
Location
Logopolis
Eh? I posted the Snopes link earlier because there were many fruitloop reports at the time claiming the convoy images were fake, so i thought I would stop any similar claims here when I referred to it as a consequence of health service collapse. What's the problem?

And why does 80,000+ cases get criticised/corrected when the report link I gave has a median of 117,000? 80,000 was the lowest figure claimed that I knew of, hence 80,000+

You're a public figure or someone who claims to have worked in a field, so your posts must be scrutinised to a much higher level and held to account.

I'm sure you find that annoying, but anything you post may be believed by others.
 
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mjr

Comfy armchair to one person & a plank to the next
The old petty political games have played out on all sides at all levels. Even now metro mayors are too bothered about sulking off than facing hard facts.
I thought mayors were sulking because they have neither the full hard facts nor powers about this pandemic? It does sound like Whitehall are acting like high priests ("believe us: this is what you must do") again.
It's time that public health at all levels set the rules, when to use them , took full control of testing and contact tracing. The time for political games is over it's time to let professions do the job pandemics don't play by political rules even now most look like they've not work that one out.
One problem is public health and many of the regional structures needed to do this have already been used for political games, being dismantled by David Cameron's first term nearly a decade ago and not replaced by anything worth a name.
 

Rezillo

TwoSheds
Location
Suffolk
You're a public figure or someone who claims to have worked in a field, so your posts must be scrutinised to a much higher level and held to account.

I'm sure you find that annoying, but anything you post may be believed by others.

I don't understand how or why you are "holding me to account". I haven't posted anything that is incorrect or not qualified in some way and I make sure that there is usually a source report link included.

The much higher figures claimed for community cases earlier this year are all down to doubling time arguments that I'm staying out of, save that 320,000 cases is only two doubling times away from 80,000. 80,000 is fairly non-controversial but still bad enough.
 
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