Coronavirus outbreak

[fossyant]

So, what's you opinions on the new level that may come in.

1. Pubs and restaurants closed
2. As above and gyms
3. As above, plus local 'essential' travel only, no overnights outside your home.

I have a feeling No.3 will be it. Wonder how 'local' this will be. If 'council' boroughs, then could be tricky for me, as many others.

 

[roubaixtuesday]

.

So, what's you opinions on the new level that may come in.

1. Pubs and restaurants closed
2. As above and gyms
3. As above, plus local 'essential' travel only, no overnights outside your home.

I have a feeling No.3 will be it. Wonder how 'local' this will be. If 'council' boroughs, then could be tricky for me, as many others.

I'm actually not particularly bothered what the precise rules will be.

More important is whether people follow either the new or existing rules, and whether our test, track and trace system works IMO.

What is absolutely criminal is that cases stopped dropping at the start of July, and have been rising consistently since the start of August. Since the start of September they've been doubling every ten days or so (note log scale, and 7 day averages)

How the yellow rubbery fark has it been allowed to come to pass that we dither for a week as to how to respond now, when this has been entirely predictable for weeks or even months? During that week of dithering, numbers will rise by a further 50-100%, and it will probably take a month of restrictions to get them back down again. Hospitals in some places are already close to limits. It's an unconscionable failure of governance. Has there really been no contingency planning? Because that's how it seems.

 

[fossyant]

Quite - they have dithered too long - We expected the rises in September, we're now mid October before action is taken. It's looking like travel restrictions will be in at the middle Tier, so that's everyone.

 

[mjr]

[Ministerial statements scheduled for 3.30pm](https://commonsbusiness.parliament.uk/document/41196/html)

 

[mjr]

How the yellow rubbery fark has it been allowed to come to pass that we dither for a week as to how to respond now, when this has been entirely predictable for weeks or even months? During that week of dithering, numbers will rise by a further 50-100%, and it will probably take a month of restrictions to get them back down again.

Worse than that dithering, it looks like the politics is limiting the science, with no sense that the restrictions will be what should work best: offer the best reductions in cases for the least economic damage. It looks more like clutching at whatever straws Dom and Dick will allow them. They need to do more at work (masks in shared indoor workspaces?) and education but it looks like it's been forbidden.

 

[classic33]

So, what's you opinions on the new level that may come in.

1. Pubs and restaurants closed
2. As above and gyms
3. As above, plus local 'essential' travel only, no overnights outside your home.

I have a feeling No.3 will be it. Wonder how 'local' this will be. If 'council' boroughs, then could be tricky for me, as many others.

3 may be local Wards or Constituencies.

The two local Constituencies have seperate rules at present.

 

[DCLane]

So, what's you opinions on the new level that may come in.

1. Pubs and restaurants closed
2. As above and gyms
3. As above, plus local 'essential' travel only, no overnights outside your home.

I have a feeling No.3 will be it. Wonder how 'local' this will be. If 'council' boroughs, then could be tricky for me, as many others.

My view is that it'll be no. 3 as per Wales. And that it'll be applied much wider than we think: it'll scupper the national hillclimb we've entered plus track racing as well due to others' selfishness and stupidity. Where I live there's been large weddings and events happening regardless; only now it's come out who's been running them. As a result of this type of behaviour in Kirklees rates are rising.

I'm right on the edge of my council borough - I've got to travel one direction if this is brought in.

Personally I've no patience for anyone being stupid. We're not being harsh enough, and weren't originally. Me? If found not following guidelines in March I'd have put whoever it was into solitary, in a hotel room, for 28 days. No questions. And whoever they were with if they'd visited someone. No more transmissions because they couldn't: if they wouldn't behave the first time then they can keep this thing to themselves.

 

[classic33]

My view is that it'll be no. 3 as per Wales. And that it'll be applied much wider than we think: it'll scupper the national hillclimb we've entered plus track racing as well due to others' selfishness and stupidity. Where I live there's been large weddings and events happening regardless; only now it's come out who's been running them. As a result of this type of behaviour in Kirklees rates are rising.

I'm right on the edge of my council borough - I've got to travel one direction if this is brought in.

Personally I've no patience for anyone being stupid. We're not being harsh enough, and weren't originally. Me? If found not following guidelines in March I'd have put whoever it was into solitary, in a hotel room, for 28 days. No questions. And whoever they were with if they'd visited someone. No more transmissions because they couldn't: if they wouldn't behave the first time then they can keep this thing to themselves.

Local TravelLodge was earmarked in April for isolation cases, should it be needed.

Never used though.

 

[fossyant]

My view is that it'll be no. 3 as per Wales. And that it'll be applied much wider than we think: it'll scupper the national hillclimb we've entered plus track racing as well due to others' selfishness and stupidity. Where I live there's been large weddings and events happening regardless; only now it's come out who's been running them. As a result of this type of behaviour in Kirklees rates are rising.

I'm right on the edge of my council borough - I've got to travel one direction if this is brought in.

Personally I've no patience for anyone being stupid. We're not being harsh enough, and weren't originally. Me? If found not following guidelines in March I'd have put whoever it was into solitary, in a hotel room, for 28 days. No questions. And whoever they were with if they'd visited someone. No more transmissions because they couldn't: if they wouldn't behave the first time then they can keep this thing to themselves.

My views are the same as yours. Looks out now, and the neighbour that doesn't follow any rules has a friend's car on the drive (I've seen the car regular). No household visiting here ! Neighbour at other end of the road seems to be having regular Friday evening 'hot tub parties' - looks like it's family, but they aren't all there in the week, and she is a local GP Practice Nurse FFS.

 

[marinyork]

So, what's you opinions on the new level that may come in.

1. Pubs and restaurants closed
2. As above and gyms
3. As above, plus local 'essential' travel only, no overnights outside your home.

I have a feeling No.3 will be it. Wonder how 'local' this will be. If 'council' boroughs, then could be tricky for me, as many others.

I'm less concerned what the rules will be than how you take the population with you and how long it will be.

I think there are three broad problems:-
1. How do you actually stop people mixing indoors unsafely in suffiently large numbers in whatever setting but especially the home.
2. "Local" is an arbitrary idea not relevant to people. People do not care about their neighbours or people in their locale and may be very resentful if one third or half of the country has far fewer restrictions. We actually saw significant evidence of this in other countries early on which may be why London was not shut down a week and a half earlier.
3. Open ended time restrictions that are not circuit breakers are very problematic especially a second time around. People are likely to follow things as things get bad maybe even before restrictions and after 3 or 4 weeks it'll start to go again.

 

[deptfordmarmoset]

Worse than that dithering, it looks like the politics is limiting the science, with no sense that the restrictions will be what should work best: offer the best reductions in cases for the least economic damage. It looks more like clutching at whatever straws Dom and Dick will allow them. They need to do more at work (masks in shared indoor workspaces?) and education but it looks like it's been forbidden.

As in Dom, Dick and.....Tarry! It was less than a year ago that the public were being warned about dither and delay.

 

[tom73]

What ever happens every day any rise in cases numbers are feeding into already baked in hospital admissions and in turn sadly more deaths.
The signs have been all round for weeks and warnings given that all is not looking good. Instead of dealing with what's coming. The old petty political games have played out on all sides at all levels. Even now metro mayors are too bothered about sulking off than facing hard facts.
Without some real hard action and fast it will be soon game over. I fear what we will get is some half baked go at going something but more about play the popular game than real public health. It's time that public health at all levels set the rules, when to use them , took full control of testing and contact tracing. The time for political games is over it's time to let professions do the job pandemics don't play by political rules even now most look like they've not work that one out.

 

[MarkF]

The linear focus switch from deaths/spikes/second wave to "cases" is astonishing! Such is the scale of false positives, asymptomatic and past infections that UK "cases" are practically meaningless, especially as such a large % are collge/uni kids, but that's where the focus has shifted to for the doomsayers, because there's nothing much else. We know we are using a flawed system but it serves that purpose. The case farce is laid bare by the testing procedures in neighbouring Argentina and Uruguay, one has a severe "case" problem, one doesn't have one at all....you want "cases" in September? You'll get them every year, you want to scare people and keep the fear narrative going, then test students, easy peasy

Maybe the government is jealous of The Netherlands and is hoping to eventually produce an even more bonkers case/death graph?

Todays near useless restrictions won't make a jot of difference, just like the UK's lockdowns and daft illogical guidelines. I can go to multiple shops, the bank, the post office, the supermarket and the barbers but set foot over the threshold of a bar and I have to fill in a track and trace form? It's absolute nonsense. If you gave me lockdown that appeared to have a point, a step in a plan then I would not like it or agree with it, but I'd follow it, so although I disagree with @DCLane on the virus, I know exactly what he is alluding to....inner city Bradford is taking zero notice of any restrictions and never has done and it never will. Oliver Dowden's excrutiatingly poor performance on TV today shows the incompetence of this government, if he does't know the science behind the restrictions, who does? Well, it is just 4 days before they WILL have to show their science.... in court.

Good news.
John Loaniddis (Stanford Professor) who's been right since March downgrades the Covid IFR from 0.27% to 0.15-0.2%.
The WHO now condems lockdowns, but they flip flopped on masks so might support them next week depending on $$$$'s.
Average age of Covid victim now 82.4 years of age, older than average UK lifespan.
The Great Barrington Declaration, much the embarrassment of The Guardian and Google, is now no longer censored on the net.

The tide is turning.

 

[SteveF]

Interesting graphic if accurate...


View: https://twitter.com/justin_ales/status/1315370477666344960

 

[tom73]

I'm less concerned what the rules will be than how you take the population with you and how long it will be.

I think there are three broad problems:-
1. How do you actually stop people mixing indoors unsafely in suffiently large numbers in whatever setting but especially the home.
2. "Local" is an arbitrary idea not relevant to people. People do not care about their neighbours or people in their locale and may be very resentful if one third or half of the country has far fewer restrictions. We actually saw significant evidence of this in other countries early on which may be why London was not shut down a week and a half earlier.
3. Open ended time restrictions that are not circuit breakers are very problematic especially a second time around. People are likely to follow things as things get bad maybe even before restrictions and after 3 or 4 weeks it'll start to go again.

That's the big question we lost most of the good will by opening up too quickly. Being too wooly with the measures needed and way too slow with the things you need in place before you can do anything. That's before you get to the total mess of any form of government measuring that's joined up. In many way the public have been sold pup it was never going to be as simple as it's been made out to be. In the begin the government was in saving it's own neck mode and the public wanted something to happen. From the start we got told if things get bad the government will pull things back the truth is it never did and that set things up nicely. For the now blame every one else game. It's no longer a national thing but it's ok round here so why can't I do things. It's "I don't care about down the road or streets away" It's a bit like when something bad happens and people go a TV saying "noting ever bad happens here"
Leadership is more than talking action at the right time, at the right level even if it's not popular. People have to believe everyone is in it together. Sadly that's not happening look at New Zealand they did it not just because they did what was needed but the PM made every believe it was a national issue and everyone was in together.