Coronavirus outbreak

[Solocle]

Most people estimate locally there were 6000 in town yesterday. I don't know about other cities. There are a lot of cities. A lot of postmillenials seemed very conflicted about attendence.

It does have to be said that new cases per day is estimated to be 5600 a day and this has fallen a lot. Around just before lockdown it's estimated it was 100,000 new cases a day.

The 1000 people on park greens everyday in groups of 8-15 for the last two or three weeks is another that'll tip it upwards.

And it's estimated that 0.1% of the population have COVID... so that would be around 6 active cases in the protest.

More significantly though, the demographics of these protests lean towards the black community being overrepresented... the same community already hit hard by Corona...

If these protests don't die down soon, then I expect there will be far more active cases in any given protest (since people exposed at previous protests are going to be much more likely to re-attend...)

Chances are that a significant number of black people will die from respiratory distress as a direct result of the protest.

The fact that they're chanting "I can't breathe" is really beyond parody.


The worst pandemic in a century really isn't the time to be protesting, especially when the protest is focused on another ing country. I mean, seriously! I bet Donald Trump really cares about protests in London...

 

[AndyRM]

And it's estimated that 0.1% of the population have COVID... so that would be around 6 active cases in the protest.

More significantly though, the demographics of these protests lean towards the black community being overrepresented... the same community already hit hard by Corona...

If these protests don't die down soon, then I expect there will be far more active cases in any given protest (since people exposed at previous protests are going to be much more likely to re-attend...)

Chances are that a significant number of black people will die from respiratory distress as a direct result of the protest.

The fact that they're chanting "I can't breathe" is really beyond parody.


The worst pandemic in a century really isn't the time to be protesting, especially when the protest is focused on another ing country. I mean, seriously! I bet Donald Trump really cares about protests in London...

Just so you know, the protest isn't focused on another country.

 

[Solocle]

Just so you know, the protest isn't focused on another country.

At the end of the day, it is. George Floyd is the core issue. Sure, they might say that it applies to the UK, but the UK situation really is nothing like the US. They wouldn't be out on the streets if it weren't for the murder of George Floyd.

These protests are going to kill more black people than have died from police brutality in this country for decades by my reckoning.

Honestly, anybody who thinks attending a protest in the current climate is a good idea really is a few pecans short of a fruitcake.

 

[Salty seadog]

At the end of the day, it is. George Floyd is the core issue. Sure, they might say that it applies to the UK, but the UK situation really is nothing like the US. They wouldn't be out on the streets if it weren't for the murder of George Floyd.

These protests are going to kill more black people than have died from police brutality in this country for decades by my reckoning.

Honestly, anybody who thinks attending a protest in the current climate is a good idea really is a few pecans short of a fruitcake.

George Floyd is a victim of the core issue. The incident is however a focus towards the core issue that is not confined to other countries.

 

[AndyRM]

At the end of the day, it is. George Floyd is the core issue. Sure, they might say that it applies to the UK, but the UK situation really is nothing like the US. They wouldn't be out on the streets if it weren't for the murder of George Floyd.

These protests are going to kill more black people than have died from police brutality in this country for decades by my reckoning.

Honestly, anybody who thinks attending a protest in the current climate is a good idea really is a few pecans short of a fruitcake.

At the end of the day, it isn't.

And if you don't think the UK is just as systematically racist as the US then you too are a few pecans short of a fruitcake.

 

[Ming the Merciless]

That's not a 100% true on public face covering I've not seen any creditable social science which back it up.
In fact social science evidence is starting to show it's effecting how people interact and you're more likely to stay a part from each other.
Most of the stuff that keeps being dragged out about why face coverings are not a good idea don't really stack up.
https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/jep.13415

That because the science hasn’t really been done. Certainly the evidence here that people wearing masks and gloves is that they can come closer to you than 2 meters.

Plus just look at the protests. Plenty of masks being worn but social distancing ignored and I bet they are not currently self isolating after the event.

 

[Rocky]

That because the science hasn’t really been done. Certainly the evidence here that people wearing masks and gloves is that they can come closer to you than 2 meters.

What science would you like, that hasn’t already been published?

https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2020/jun/05/face-masks-coronavirus

 

[Ming the Merciless]

What science would you like, that hasn’t already been published?

https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2020/jun/05/face-masks-coronavirus

The behavioural science . What you have linked to it is reduction is how far virus particles travel but if people then feel they don’t need to give you space, that is undermined.

 

[Rocky]

The behavioural science . What you have linked to it is reduction is how far virus particles travel but if people then feel they don’t need to give you space, that is undermined.

The behavioural science has been done......for example there's this one that suggests masks keep people away and increase social distancing......

https://arxiv.org/pdf/2005.12446.pdf

The inherent problem is that this is a public health issue which doesn't lend itself to traditional medical or clinical trials. So getting the science is somewhat challenging - however the best evidence comes from cross country comparisons (facemask wearing countries vs non-) although, as I'm sure you are aware there many confounding variable getting in the way causal analysis.

BTW that Guardian article I linked to focuses on the challenges of providing evidence - it's not really just about particle transmission.

 

[tom73]

That because the science hasn’t really been done. Certainly the evidence here that people wearing masks and gloves is that they can come closer to you than 2 meters.

Plus just look at the protests. Plenty of masks being worn but social distancing ignored and I bet they are not currently self isolating after the event.

Don’t muddy the waters and talk of gloves that’s a red herring. That’s not even been talk about as a way to help out of unlock. I’d say the lack of social distance at the protests. Is down to it being just that a protest and not because of mask use.

Pandemics don’t lead themselves to normal science time lines they are moving at much more faster rates so areas of work open up every day. Conducting normal mass science public experiments is not possible either. Who’s going to volunteer as a control group in the middle of this?
we have to fall back on what know much is not all that new and much no longer stacks up.
No evidence from past pandemics or this one show face covering leads to lack of risk awareness.

But work is coming showing the opposite may well be true.
The paper @Brompton Bruce has linked is a good start at showing positive social change due to face coverings. We don’t know yet if that than moves on to fixing that in behaviours even without face coverings. That is another area that need’s work. We have example‘s that show that happens.
Bare below the elbows for example has lead to reinforcing hand washing which is not what it started out as.

If you can find any credible social science that says it’s a bad idea I’d like to see it. I’ve a degree in it and even asking around i‘ve not seen any.

 

[Unkraut]

I have just looked at the UK government site, and 14 days' quarantine is going to be the requirement for anyone entering the UK as of tomorrow morning. Does anybody have any idea how long it is intended to keep this regime? It does seem a bit strange that the rest of Europe is lifting this kind of restriction and the UK has only now got round to imposing it.

We are supposed to be having a holiday in Cornwall at the beginning of September, and notwithstanding the new rule would rule this out would only consider actually doing the holiday if the infection rate is well down, which I hope it will be - and is what really matters.

 

[midlife]

Did you look at the list of exempt people?

 

[marinyork]

I have just looked at the UK government site, and 14 days' quarantine is going to be the requirement for anyone entering the UK as of tomorrow morning. Does anybody have any idea how long it is intended to keep this regime? It does seem a bit strange that the rest of Europe is lifting this kind of restriction and the UK has only now got round to imposing it.

We are supposed to be having a holiday in Cornwall at the beginning of September, and notwithstanding the new rule would rule this out would only consider actually doing the holiday if the infection rate is well down, which I hope it will be - and is what really matters.

Your guess is as good as hours.

Legal action being taken. Being savaged in some of the papers tomorrow.

 

[marinyork]

Did you look at the list of exempt people?

If you know Dominic Cummings, Boris, Matt Hancock or Michael Gove. Or Dominic Cummings says you are in an exempt group.

 

[tom73]

I have just looked at the UK government site, and 14 days' quarantine is going to be the requirement for anyone entering the UK as of tomorrow morning. Does anybody have any idea how long it is intended to keep this regime? It does seem a bit strange that the rest of Europe is lifting this kind of restriction and the UK has only now got round to imposing it.

We are supposed to be having a holiday in Cornwall at the beginning of September, and notwithstanding the new rule would rule this out would only consider actually doing the holiday if the infection rate is well down, which I hope it will be - and is what really matters.

Good question no one has a clue if it’s going to hang around or not. Much of his party don’t like it and tomorrow some are going to start a push to get it stopped. Travel companies don’t like it some like BA are boycotting government meetings about it. By the looks even the home office believe it’s not workable the law around it is not even in place. So can’t see it being around long.