Coronavirus outbreak

[marinyork]

Zoos allowed to reopen

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-52986783

Planned all along but with the number of zoos on tv saying about threatened closure you do wonder about the message management.

 

[marinyork]

Massive pinch of salt article saying immunity status may be unofficially be coming to the US.

https://www.theguardian.com/us-news...ss-system-that-could-shape-the-covid-19-world

 

[Solocle]

A very rough estimate based on the current rate of decrease is 7000 more deaths, with the last being about 1 year away. And that's at current levels of restrictions, observance, et al, and there might have been some superspreading events lately that haven't been picked up....Oh, and it depends on R being the same across all regions, which isn't the case.

 

[Rocky]

View attachment 528882
A very rough estimate based on the current rate of decrease is 7000 more deaths, with the last being about 1 year away. And that's at current levels of restrictions, observance, et al, and there might have been some superspreading events lately that haven't been picked up....Oh, and it depends on R being the same across all regions, which isn't the case.

Can you add a bit more to this? First, what is this graph showing and what are its axes? What is Y? What is X? What is the significance and meaning of an exponential relationship?

Second, where did the data come from and how was the analysis done? And.....do you think your assumptions (restrictions, observance etc) will remain the same? What about the seasonal factors (when other illnesses start up again - seasonal flu), coronavirus mutations and international travel influences?

It would be interesting to know how robust your predictions are.

 

[Solocle]

Can you add a bit more to this? First, what is this graph showing and what are its axes? What is Y? What is X? What is the significance and meaning of an exponential relationship?

Second, where did the data come from and how was the analysis done? And.....do you think your assumptions (restrictions, observance etc) will remain the same? What about the seasonal factors (when other illnesses start up again - seasonal flu), coronavirus mutations and international travel influences?

It would be interesting to know how robust your predictions are.

I used the government data from yesterday's press conference. Y is deaths (all settings confirmed I believe), X is days. A bit of integration to infinity gives you total area remaining under the curve, which should correspond to deaths remaining.

And no, I don't think that the assumptions will remain the same, but it's interesting to note what the situation is should that be the case - that we're barely going to stay under 50,000 total deaths.

 

[Rocky]

I used the government data from yesterday's press conference. Y is deaths (all settings confirmed I believe), X is days. A bit of integration to infinity gives you total area remaining under the curve, which should correspond to deaths remaining.

And no, I don't think that the assumptions will remain the same, but it's interesting to note what the situation is should that be the case - that we're barely going to stay under 50,000 total deaths.

Thank you for the clarification.

 

[srw]

we're barely going to stay under 50,000 total deaths.

We're already well over that - the latest estimate I've seen is around 65,000. Your figures, and the government's headline figures, are only confirmed Coronavrius cases, not all deaths associated with the pandemic.

Your model is crude, but probably pretty appropriate. As you say, but it bears repeating, it makes the heroic* assumption that the situation in the country stays the same. I'm watching what the government is doing with horror, and am expecting the curve to keep flat or even go back up when it should be coming down. What the people banging on about the economy fail to point out is that the best way to get the economy to recover is to competely eradicate the disease so that we can get back to doing all the things we're missing.

*"Heroic" is mathematician-speak for "ludicrously unrealistic, but it's the best I can think of".

 

[tom73]

Since the virus started Nursing Notes has been keeping a record of heath and social care staff that have died.
Once they have been notified by family or friends of a death but not before it has been verified.
The last update showed that 245 have sadly died due to Covid.
For the last few days it's not been updated they have now explained why.
It turn's out that organisations are now refusing to release the information.
Given the government have not been open about the true figure and that the risk of death from covid is higher for BEME. Added in the current black life matters spotlight this is doubly shocking.

 

[Joey Shabadoo]

Reading on Facebook (soz) that a team in Valencia have come up with a breathalyzer type test that gives results in 2 minutes and costs about one Euro.

A team of scientists in Valencia has developed an inexpensive and fast breathalyzer-like diagnostic tool to test for Coronavirus.

The test is quick (with results in 2 minutes), simple, precise and cheap (at a cost of just 1 euro). And, there is no blood analysis or invasive swab required.

It's a team of scientists at FISABIO - the non-profit, scientific and healthcare centre in Valencia - that have come up with the device that could, withstanding trials, revolutionise the way we diagnose patients for the virus. They say this new method could vastly speed up the testing procedure and could replace the less-than effective current method of testing with an infrared thermometer. If successful, the device could find widespread application at doctor's surgeries, pharmacies, ambulances and of course AIRPORTS!!!
For a region like ours that relies so heavily for its very existence on the free movement of tourists, this latest scientific development has created a real buzz in the local press and was applauded by the President of the Regional Government Ximo Puig.

 

[Bollo]

Reading on Facebook (soz) that a team in Valencia have come up with a breathalyzer type test that gives results in 2 minutes and costs about one Euro.

I didn’t vote Brexit to pay for life saving tests in EUROS!!!!

 

[mjr]

Finally got round to watching the BBC4 programme Contagion, linked further upthread: https://www.bbc.co.uk/iplayer/episode/p059y0p1/contagion-the-bbc-four-pandemic

Further analysis of the BBC4 Contagion dataset has been done to estimate the effects of various anti-covid measures: http://www.uea.ac.uk/about/-/bbc-contagion-experiment-offers-covid-19-control-insight

 

[marinyork]

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-52993734

Massive genetic study says coronavirus was started in the UK by at least 1,356 different cases that came over a long period of time and especially Italy, Spain and France.

 

[RoadRider400]

"a team of scientists at FISABIO - the non-profit, scientific and healthcare centre in Valencia - that have come up with the device that could, withstanding trials, revolutionise the way we diagnose patients for the virus."

So its not actually proven to work yet?

 

[marinyork]

Boris

Johnson says two households will be allowed to meet up as 'support bubble' without

Turning to social contact, Johnson says he relaxed rules last Monday, so that groups of up to six could meet outdoors.
But too many people are lonely.
From this weekend, single adult households will be allowed to form a support bubble with one other household. That means they can act as if they are one household. They can visit each other’s homes, and don’t need to stay two metres apart.
But they can only form a support bubble with one household.
And if someone in the bubble falls ill, all must self-isolate.
He says this does not mean anyone can meet in anyone else’s home.
And shielding people are not included, he says.

 

[tom73]

well what you know all 5 government tests have been met so full steam head with unlock.
Sorry Borris but your not that convincing
Support bubble good idea but likely to become a dog's dinner with miss use all over the shop.