Coronavirus outbreak

[Rezillo]

As probably posted earlier ..... We have tens of thousands of deaths every winter from Winter Flu ..... total flu-related deaths during 2017-2018 was estimated to be 79,000 ..... .....
And not a mass national panic in sight.
So why now ....... ?

Because flu deaths have been amalgamated into, or, charitably, misinterpreted as the main cause of, excess winter death figures, which includes those who are infirm and vulnerable to colder temperatures. The BMJ are not happy about that at all:

https://www.bmj.com/content/361/bmj.k2795/rr-6

"Through the USISS mandatory scheme, a total of 3,454 ICU/HDU admissions of
confirmed influenza were reported across the UK from week 40 2017 to week 15 2018,
including 372 deaths, based on combined data from England, Scotland and Northern
Ireland. In England, the total number of influenza confirmed admissions to ICU/HDU
was 3,175 (rate of 0.22 per 100, 000 population) and 320 deaths during the same
period... "

 

[rualexander]

or you can read the source paper

https://academic.oup.com/nsr/advance-article/doi/10.1093/nsr/nwaa036/5775463

Thanks.
But that doesn't say the L type is more deadly either, just that it may be more aggressive and has become the more prevalent strain.

 

[Ming the Merciless]

Thanks.
But that doesn't say the L type is more deadly either, just that it may be more aggressive and has become the more prevalent strain.

The BBC one did at the time I read it or did you miss me saying that? Not sure what point you are trying to make.

 

[Ming the Merciless]

Bbc1 question time right now. Discussing Corona virus . Well worth watching.

 

[Rusty Nails]

.................As for cycling I'm going to carry on as normal. It may come to a time when travel may be restricted and the turbo trainer will have to get a dusting off.
We just need to stay calm and not get to hung up on all the constant bombardment news we see on the Internet and tv and hopefully we will all come through it relatively unscathed.

Normally I rely on the gym to keep my fitness up through the winter and cancel my membership through the summer months, but from here on I have decided that I will cut out the gym and increase my winter cycling. As a 73 year old asthmatic I need all the extra help I can get.

 

[johnnyb47]

I think thats a wise move @Rusty Nails. Cycling would be a far better option as there would be far less contact with people out on the open road as opposed to a crowded gym.
I'm not being patronising but at the grand age of 73 it's all the more important to take wise steps to lower the risk of catching it.

 

[Accy cyclist]

On the subject of gyms,surely it'd be wise to temporarily close the sauna and steam room at my local leisure centre? Sometimes there are 15 to 20 people crammed into both rooms and some unsavoury activities go on in there. People spit,blow their noses on the floor,use body scrubs,cough etc. With temperatures around 30C and loads of steam(obviously)in the steam room isn't this a breeding/transmitting ground for the coronavirus if a user happens to have the virus,but doesn't know yet?
Also...The government advisers are saying the virus won't spread as much in the warmer spring and summer months. I would've thought virus's would spread more in warm rather than cool conditions. We know that food 'goes off' in temperatures over 5C,when bacteria is created. Won't warm weather help the coronavirus flourish?

 

[lazybloke]

We've had pods for 2 weeks now, would maybe hold 60-80 people I'd imagine, with safe & separate car parking for maybe 30 cars. It's one of the busiest hospitals in the UK in a densely populated & very deprived area. I don't know for sure, but think the facility has been used once.

Will it spread?
The UK Chief Medical Officer thinks a global pandemic is almost certain, and that 95% of UK cases will fall within just a 9 week period. It's not know when that 9 week period will fall.

How many people could be infected?
An international study estuimated at least 1 in 5 (globally) were infected by Swine flu; fortuntely that one wasn't dangerous.
Let's assume Covid 19 affects a similar number here in the UK. What would that mean?

It would mean 14 million Brits infected.
Over 11 of these would be mild.
Nearly 2.7 million would hospital (inpatient) treatment.

There were approx 17 million hospital admissions last year. That 327,000 per week.
Do the maths, it's almost a doubling of admissions every week of that 9 week period.





Containment should continue as it will delay a nationwide surge in infections; when that happens, computer models suggest 95% of UK infections would occur in about 9 weeks.



However the remainder cause symptoms which are classed either severe or critical; in both cases the patient is hospitalised (for weeks).

Now consider the models mentioned by the Chief (UK) Medical Officer today, which predict that at some point there will be a very rapid spread of this virus.


Chief Medical Officer Chris Whitty suggests there's probably zero chance of avoiding a global pandemic.
So far the number of UK cases has been fairly trivial

there's almost zero chance of preventing a global pandemic. We're getting only trivial numbers of infections in the UK currently, but that will rise. but eventually he expects to see that rising very rapidly, with 95% of infections occuring over just a 9 week period.


2) Approx 19% of Covid-19 cases as classed as severe or critical; these all require hospitalisation (weeks rather than days).

 

[lazybloke]

We've had pods for 2 weeks now, would maybe hold 60-80 people I'd imagine, with safe & separate car parking for maybe 30 cars. It's one of the busiest hospitals in the UK in a densely populated & very deprived area. I don't know for sure, but think the facility has been used once.

Surely a busy hospital in a densely populated area is the ideal place to have the pods and other facilities?
Hope for the best, plan for the worst.

After all, the Chief Medical Officer did say only yesterday that (I'll paraphrase): a Global Pandemic is now almost a certainty.

Your 60-80 pods might not go very far. The last pandemic (2009-2010) gave 14 million Brits a very mild case of swine flu, and whilst Covid19 is also usually mild, there are some 19% of cases which result in hospitalisation due to severe or critical symptoms.

Whilst the avarage UK hospital admission is just 4 days (stats from NHS Digital), Covid19 admissions have been measured in weeks. That would totally screw up any NHS predictions of bed availability, and let's not forget the NHS is short of beds at the best of times. Plus there would be the problem of NHS staff themselves falling sick, and the huge impracticalities of delivering healthcare from inside biohazard suits.
The NHS are going to need protection from this disease, so I think extraordinary measures are inevitable. School closures? Travel restrictions? Who knows!

Fingers crossed for warmer weather to slow the disease down.

 

[kingrollo]

Surely a busy hospital in a densely populated area is the ideal place to have the pods and other facilities?
Hope for the best, plan for the worst.

After all, the Chief Medical Officer did say only yesterday that (I'll paraphrase): a Global Pandemic is now almost a certainty.

Your 60-80 pods might not go very far. The last pandemic (2009-2010) gave 14 million Brits a very mild case of swine flu, and whilst Covid19 is also usually mild, there are some 19% of cases which result in hospitalisation due to severe or critical symptoms.

Whilst the avarage UK hospital admission is just 4 days (stats from NHS Digital), Covid19 admissions have been measured in weeks. That would totally screw up any NHS predictions of bed availability, and let's not forget the NHS is short of beds at the best of times. Plus there would be the problem of NHS staff themselves falling sick, and the huge impracticalities of delivering healthcare from inside biohazard suits.
The NHS are going to need protection from this disease, so I think extraordinary measures are inevitable. School closures? Travel restrictions? Who knows!

Fingers crossed for warmer weather to slow the disease down.

Yeah but Mark F hasn't seen anyone using the pods - so we might as well take them down.

 

[Chris S]

85 uk cases - don't panic

 

[fossyant]

Gyms are a breeding ground for germs anyway. Humid conditions, body sweat on equipment that's not cleaned often. Perfectly fine most of the time, but might not be the best idea at present.

 

[Chris S]

I've seen people putting sanitizer gel on their hands at gym, after lying on shared exercise mats.

EDIT: fossyant just beat me to it.

 

[kingrollo]

Gyms are a breeding ground for germs anyway. Humid conditions, body sweat on equipment that's not cleaned often. Perfectly fine most of the time, but might not be the best idea at present.

Its a dilemma for me - because as an asthmatic the bit of cardio helps keep my cv in good nick - and helps with my back pain. I can't yet excercise too much outside as the cold irritates my asthma. at the moment while the number of cases is low I am still going to the gym.

 

[kingrollo]

I've seen people putting sanitizer gel on their hands at gym, after lying on shared exercise mats.

EDIT: fossyant just beat me to it.

Buts its youre hands that are key - with you hands you touch you face.