Low Gear Guy
Veteran
- Location
- Surrey
I would look at the response of the government in China and ask why would they have taken strong action.
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Beebo
Firm and Fruity
- Location
- Hexleybeef
4) It’s a new virus. No one on earth has an inbuilt resistance to this virus yet. Think how the Aztecs were wiped out!
vickster
Legendary Member
Don’t think they had modern medical facilities and treatments
...chocolate can cure many ills of course but not all (think it was the mayans who had the sweet teeth maybe?)
Smokin Joe
Squire
- Location
- Bare headed cyclist, Smoker
That is open to question because we do not no how many people are infected, bearing in mind a considerable proportion will have either no symptoms or ones that are so mild they dismiss them as just a cold. Estimates for fatalities I've seen today vary between .86% and 3.2%. That's not to dismiss the possible seriousness, but for the moment we just don't know what the effect will be.
kingrollo
Guru
You are correct it's an unknown - but even the lowest estimate s you quote( 0.86 ) is higher than seasonal flu (0.15 )
lazybloke
Today i follow the flying spaghetti monster
- Location
- Leafy Surrey
Think they had it without sugar. Probably didn't have salted caramel either- how terrible
lazybloke
Today i follow the flying spaghetti monster
- Location
- Leafy Surrey
I thought seasonal flu had a considerably lower mortality rate than you say, but i'm struggling to find any PHE stats on a tiny phone screen...
- Location
- London
Had plans to travel to italy (not the lockdown areas) soon.
Checked out the easyjet web page looking for info on my rights if they cancel your flight. Nothing that i could find, just this waffle from last month:
29/02/2020
The health and wellbeing of our passengers and crew is our highest priority.
We would like to reassure customers that our existing policies and procedures are in line with the guidance provided by the World Health Organisation (WHO) and EASA. We remain in regular contact with the authorities and will amend our procedures if and when required if guidance changes. There is currently no change to advice for airlines, so our flights continue to operate and standard terms and conditions on tickets continue to apply.
Please click here for more information around travel restrictions.
Checked out the easyjet web page looking for info on my rights if they cancel your flight. Nothing that i could find, just this waffle from last month:
29/02/2020
The health and wellbeing of our passengers and crew is our highest priority.
We would like to reassure customers that our existing policies and procedures are in line with the guidance provided by the World Health Organisation (WHO) and EASA. We remain in regular contact with the authorities and will amend our procedures if and when required if guidance changes. There is currently no change to advice for airlines, so our flights continue to operate and standard terms and conditions on tickets continue to apply.
Please click here for more information around travel restrictions.
RecordAceFromNew
Swinging Member
- Location
- West London
A more optimistic expert outlook, the sort I like.
https://theunionjournal.com/leading-doctor-claims-coronavirus-isnt-as-deadly-as-feared/
Sorry to burst your bubble. Apart from the extremely strange "credentials" attributed to the chap, his mortality calculation is wrong.
It is logically indefensible to calculate mortality based on deaths divided by number infected, when not all the infected have been cleared or died. To use his example of the Diamond Princess, there are 6 deaths to date, and 212 cleared, so the mortality is c3%, close to the latest WHO estimate of 3.4%.
I do agree that we should find out what real experts say. Some interesting information has come out of China from the WHO team that went in, which might have debunked some commonly accepted beliefs:
1. Surprisingly, only 4.8% of infected people had runny noses.
2. Unlike flu, there are very few mild and asymptomatic cases escaping attention thereby fuelling further infection. This is consistent with how rapidly and clearly the rate of infection has since fallen in China.
3. While Wuhan was initially overwhelmed, and therefore shows a high mortality rate of c5.8%, it has been 0.7% in other regions in China.
4. Mortality rates however are now seen to be much higher elsewhere, in Italy and Iran, e.g. This might have something to do with the fact that contrary to common belief, relevant aspects of medicine in China, e.g. in ventilation, is sophisticated, and may not be practiced elsewhere.
5. It is difficult to see how the aggressive lockdown and intrusive solutions imposed in China can apply in the West, and if not does it mean more will be infected for longer?
Aspects of the team's conclusions can be seen here and here.
mjr
Comfy armchair to one person & a plank to the next
- Location
- mostly Norfolk, sometimes Somerset
It's a robot rip of the Slate article linked near the bottom as "Source" or similar. Others have pointed out how the doctor is not calculating rates correctly. Anyone who's worked in a university statistics department knows that a solid grasp of stats is not universal across the sciences.
Rusty Nails
We remember
- Location
- Living in the slow lane
By coincidence I've just had an email from my gym outlying the steps they are taking to keep the place and the equipment clean and to minimise the risk of infection.
Ming the Merciless
There is no mercy
- Location
- Inside my skull
The news out of China is that they think it has mutated into two strains. One gives milder symptoms, one is much more deadly. Sorry if this has already been mentioned up thread.
nickyboy
Norven Mankey
- Location
- You want hills? We got hills
It may be useful to use this thread to highlight likely locations to pick up the infection in addition to the obvious like door handles, toilet flush mechanisms, taps
Gyms, definitely
Supermarket trolleys and handbaskets
Petrol pumps
Armrests on trains
