Coronavirus outbreak

[marinyork]

Went out for a walk at 10pm yesterday. A week ago I might have seen less than 10 cars. Last night it was 30 or 40 .

When I went out on Monday, I walked to a park and went via the shops as less chance of getting mugged. Despite only 3 shops being open it was very, very busy and a lot of people milling around. Ring road traffic was maybe down by 30%. Other areas quiet. The closed shops also had people doing bolts doing whatever it was they deemed important - preparing to re-open?

When I went out on Weds for exercise road traffic quiet, park quieter than expected despite the gorgeous weather.

Thursday a lot of traffic on the way on exercising. On the way back completely dead. Nothing at all.

 

[tom73]

Couple drive 300 mile for a 'mini break" with no licence or insurance.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-cornwall-52426051

 

[SpokeyDokey]

Couple drive 300 mile for a 'mini break" with no licence or insurance.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-cornwall-52426051

Bad people.

Thankfully, they didn't cycle there - that would've caused a global meltdown in the press.

 

[flake99please]

Cycled along Portobello seafront earlier today. Three cafes were open for takeaway service. Last week it was one, and at the start of lockdown, nowhere was. Most people in the queues were maintaining 2 metres between each other.

Numbers of people appeared to be slightly up, with at least half of those looking like they shouldn’t be there at all (70+). 😕

 

[tom73]

Hope they've canceled any furlough claims.

 

[Edwardoka]

Remember that unthinkable number that was floating about a month ago? That 20,000 coronavirus deaths in the UK would mean we had done very well indeed?
And those who decry "armchair experts" scoffed and called us fearmongers?

Well, we just breezed past that number as if it wasn't even there.

 

[lane]

Remember that unthinkable number that was floating about a month ago? That 20,000 coronavirus deaths in the UK would mean we had done very well indeed?
And those who decry "armchair experts" scoffed and called us fearmongers?

Well, we just breezed past that number as if it wasn't even there.

It didn't include a lot of deaths so actual number is much higher. Deaths now steady at 700 to 800 a day and expected to fall very slowly. Realistically we will be at least double the 20k "doing well" number sadly.

 

[tom73]

The health and social care deaths are equally mounting up we've gone from 100 to 129 in five days.

 

[MarkF]

I don't think BD9 (around the hospital) changed much, now it seems normal to me apart from hospital visits.

My canal ride to Leeds market was hard today, the towpath being at least 5x busier than last week, a lot of picnics going on in lovely weather.

I've seen quite a few long term (year+) end of life patients die this week, it's sad as l get used to them. They've been infected in hospital, but it's no life being shuttled about a hospital waiting to die.

 

[marinyork]

Do you think a second peak is a given whatever the Government policy is? Is the only question the size of the second peak that will be impacted by policy choices?

Yes, I think a second peak is almost certain, irrespective of whatever government policy is.

Yes, the size of the second peak will be impacted slightly by policy choices, albeit it's not very clear what equates to what. It will be impacted more greatly by what the population does and the living/working conditions of the population.

A few months in we suspect or know that:-

• The natural R could be as high as 5.7 (Sanche et al. 2020) which would need a herd immunity as high as 80%.
• Even if R is a lot lower e.g. 2-3 (Witty, various other governments around the world) it'd need to be around 60%
• Various small scale studies such as Gangelt, vo', cruise ship suggest that a bad outbreak's around 15% of a local population.
• Larger scale studies and many estimates by epidimiologists suggest 2-3% for larger populations. Some others 5%.
• Large enough datasets in Italy suggest that there are areas that for whatever reason seem to have much lower infections e.g. the region of veneto compared to the region of Lombardia
• Remdesivir doesn't work
• Chloroquine and even deschloroquine appear to be of no practical use due to side effects in patients likely to have coronavirus
• Contact tracing is mightily useful to slowing the spread locally, but if your testing capacity is exceeded you're screwed (singapore)
• It's run wildly out of control in Singapore in areas migrants live in, as soon/prior to lockdown being lifted.
• China's basically shut itself off from the rest of the world with the most unbelievably rigorous tests if you want to travel there
• Social distancing and social shielding do work just the precise way isn't known
• Face masks offer a bit of protection from someone with the virus passing it onto someone else
• Mask wearing sadly may not make that much difference e.g. Italy
• That there are PPE wars going on around the world and the government is terrified of the public hoarding them leaving shortages
• The government believe mixing indoors in groups of people 10-20 in size is particularly problematic
• A vaccine given to a meaningful proportion of the population say 20 million is a year to eighteen months away
• The virus rips through carehomes killing many in individual homes if unchecked with between one and a third deaths for every hospital death in a care home.
• A massive spike in deaths for other things
• The virus hasn't been 'contained' in China/South Korea/Singapore, it'll belt around the planet permanently
• Even if it were contained in the western world to a reasonable extent, it could rip through the developing world and reappear
• Blood tests are being done suggesting the population has no immunity
• Even those that have had the virus have some immunity, it's not understood the level or how long this lasts but many comparisons with other viruses suggest caution e.g. immunity for months or a year.
• We have to shield 1.5 million people that are higher risk
• We have 10 million key workers who have to go to work in all of this
• It's much more likely to kill men than women
• Those with a wide range of common long term health conditions are either known for certain or suspected to not get on well with the virus in a sizeable percentage of cases.
• Apps could theoretically work but would require an enormously high percentage of the population to use them and for what precise benefit?
• That the nose bud tests have very limited finite capacity with many logistical problems making them hard to scale up
• Nose bud tests have a higher than suspected failure rate as it involves sticking it very, very far up someone's nose
• That governments in the west generally really dislike antibody test kits, sometimes for legitimate reasons.
• Not much closer to narrowing down whether asymptomatic patients are 20% or 80% of cases, with many people going in the middle.
• Housing density is a factor
• Number of multigenerational dwellings in an area might be a biggie
• Various forms of pollution don't help by weakening the immune system
• That lockdown and lockdown mean completely different things in different countries
• It takes a long, long time to climb down off the peak such as Italy (weeks later)

All that screams that you're getting a second peak. It might only be a little one (probably not). It could be continuous cycles, but damped. There might be a gigantic one in the winter as is suspected by epidemiologists. You're getting a second peak though. The only way you aren't is a deus ex machina. This is a big problem for the government as they need to change the language and say a second peak is overwhelmingly likely and that they don't want another gigantic spike.

 

[lane]

Thanks for the comprehensive, albeit depressing, response.

 

[randynewmanscat]

Sure but it are not only armchair experts, to government only seem to listen to the so called ''sage'' experts. I'm sure there capable but this is a new virus and while countries that managed this virus very well all relied on face protection and with hindsight it looks like to right thing to do, yet in here it's not even an recommendation.

The Land Rover gate was disgusting they should have acted faster as it was very clear it had became death traps especially in comparison with the Hummers.

A friend served in the Bosnia UN peacekeeping force UNPROFOR and drove a land rover, it made him nervous because the locals had found themselves in possession of a lot of rocket propelled grenades. He said having a white motor with UN on the sides made him more nervous, target practice for the locals.

 

[randynewmanscat]

Fairly dark reading for the last few pages here so I thought I would take the opportunity to brag.
I bought a powerful sun bed and a three bar fire, cleared out my local pharmacy of IV drip bags and canulas and bought dettol in bulk.
I'm alright Jack!

 

[tom73]

If everything fails you can always have a bath and throw in the fire that should see the virus off nicely.

 

[Blue Hills]

As the global hell continues, the guardian asks the important question.

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2...successful-at-managing-the-coronavirus-crisis