Coronavirus outbreak

[HMS_Dave]

All things equal

If in a weeks time Sweden less CV deaths per 1M than UK would you say their strategy was correct?

No. It is a gamble that has no guaranteed and is not yet fully understood. I dont think pissing into the wind is a viable strategy when confronted with lives. Incidentally Sweden has the highest death rate of nordic countries and their PM is expecting a large increase!

 

[roubaixtuesday]

All things equal

If in a weeks time Sweden less CV deaths per 1M than UK would you say their strategy was correct?

Depends what you understand by their strategy and what you mean by "correct". Correct for Sweden, or correct for other countries?

The Sweden strategy relies on population compliance. Firstly, what is correct for Sweden is not necessarily correct elsewhere - our population seems far less compliant, and is more densely populated.

Secondly, Sweden looks set to impose stricter measures this week anyway.

Personal view: The Sweden strategy has already failed. Compare where they are now vs adjacent Norway, which had more cases sooner, but responded much harder. They seem about to follow suit on cracking down, but have suffered many more deaths (Sweden has twice the population).

 

[MarkF]

No. It is a gamble that has no guaranteed and is not yet fully understood. I dont think pissing into the wind is a viable strategy when confronted with lives. Incidentally Sweden has the highest death rate of nordic countries and their PM is expecting a large increase!

But their government has explained their strategy and has broad public support despite the upcoming deaths, at least they know why & where they are heading. It'll be interesting, many months from now, to see what has happened and if that public support remains.

 

[Eziemnaik]

Depends what you understand by their strategy and what you mean by "correct". Correct for Sweden, or correct for other countries?

The Sweden strategy relies on population compliance. Firstly, what is correct for Sweden is not necessarily correct elsewhere - our population seems far less compliant, and is more densely populated.

Secondly, Sweden looks set to impose stricter measures this week anyway.

Personal view: The Sweden strategy has already failed. Compare where they are now vs adjacent Norway, which had more cases sooner, but responded much harder. They seem about to follow suit on cracking down, but have suffered many more deaths (Sweden has twice the population).

Compare it to Denmark and there is way less difference even as Dn went total lockdown

 

[roubaixtuesday]

Compare it to Denmark and there is way less difference even as Dn went total lockdown

It's perfectly reasonable to have different views about whether Sweden has the right strategy for Sweden, and whether than strategy would translate to other countries. As I said above, my view on the Sweden strategy is purely personal (I have many friends in Sweden). I make no claims beyond that.

It's NOT reasonable to believe the virus is comparable to flu, which is where you started.

 

[Eziemnaik]

Also it will be most intersting to see how the following depression will eat at the fabric of society
It was calculated that austerity after 2008 killed 120000 people

 

[HMS_Dave]

But their government has explained their strategy and has broad public support despite the upcoming deaths, at least they know why & where they are heading. It'll be interesting, many months from now, to see what has happened and if that public support remains.

I agree mark but the government given advice is against the experts (scientists advice) "But the strategy is more controversial among scientists.

Some support the government, believing that it's better to bring in tighter controls only when they're needed.

Others fear the country is blindly heading for a cliff edge.

Professor Cecilia Soderberg-Naucler, speaking in her laboratory in the Karolinska Institute, fears many will die as a result of what she sees as risks being taken by the establishment.


But she claims the dissenting view is being ignored."

So who's expert advice are the Swedish government following?

EDITED due to quote error

 

[Eziemnaik]

It's perfectly reasonable to have different views about whether Sweden has the right strategy for Sweden, and whether than strategy would translate to other countries. As I said above, my view on the Sweden strategy is purely personal (I have many friends in Sweden). I make no claims beyond that.

It's NOT reasonable to believe the virus is comparable to flu, which is where you started.

Sure, you can compare mortality rates between viruses, mortality rate from CV based on best tested popluations (cruisers, Iceland) is not 10x times higher as you claimed

 

[marinyork]

https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news...virus-contact-tracing-opportunity-experts-say

Article on contact tracing

 

[tom73]

Yesterday came news of 1st Midwife to die now another Nurse has died. We are quickly reaching or even gone past double figures.
We have all the PPE we need it's called stay at home. They don't have that choice they do it because they care.
So really show you care for them and stay at home.
It's simple if you just can't the bothered then people will die even maybe you.

 

[mjr]

Compare it to Denmark and there is way less difference even as Dn went total lockdown

"total lockdown" isn't the impression I've got from the news and @steveindenmark

 

[roubaixtuesday]

Sure, you can compare mortality rates between viruses, mortality rate from CV based on best tested popluations (cruisers, Iceland) is not 10x times higher as you claimed

Your whole case is based on all of 12 deaths and is already out of date:

• At the time of the Ionnadis summary of the Diamond Princess the toll numbered 8 deaths. Subsequently that's been proved wrong, the current number is 12.
• In Iceland, there have been 4 deaths.

There is, as I was careful to empahsise, much uncertainty still, but if you really think the death rate is comparable to flu, you need to explain the overflowing morgues.

 

[Eziemnaik]

Your whole case is based on all of 12 deaths and is already out of date:

• At the time of the Ionnadis summary of the Diamond Princess the toll numbered 8 deaths. Subsequently that's been proved wrong, the current number is 12.
• In Iceland, there have been 4 deaths.

There is, as I was careful to empahsise, much uncertainty still, but if you really think the death rate is comparable to flu, you need to explain the overflowing morgues.

Even with these updated nr mortality is that of flu

 

[HMS_Dave]

Also it will be most intersting to see how the following depression will eat at the fabric of society
It was calculated that austerity after 2008 killed 120000 people

Economies can be rebuilt. Much of Europe has been in ruins multiple times. The experts predict if left unchecked millions of lives would be lost. Millions. You cannot get them back, peoples moms, dads, sisters, brothers etc real people gone with no guarantees the economy wouldn't suffer. What seems the most reasonable humane choice is to follow what the scientists advise us.

 

[Eziemnaik]

Moms and Dads die of poverty as well