Coronavirus outbreak

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Mike_P

Guru
Location
Harrogate
I suspect it's more likely that we will be restricted to not travel more than one or two miles from home - ironically that will significantly increases the chances of exposure for those of us in towns and cities.
Would still give large numbers of people access to urban parks which seems to be one of main idiot groupings so maybe all parks should be shut. Then again according to press reports there were idiots in Harrogate yesterday having a street party so a complete lockdown is I suspect inevitable if not this week certainly after no doubt a result of crazy scenes over the Easter weekend. Maybe water cannons need to be employed.
 

roubaixtuesday

self serving virtue signaller
I'm not in any way attempting to downplay the seriousness of this pandemic, but how would "conventional" flu stack up in your assessment above? It kills, on average, 17,000 UK inhabitants a year. Some people get a sniffle, some people die. Some people get it and never know. Is there a fundamental difference between it and Corona virus?

Yes. My attempt to summarise:

1) It's ~2 times more contagious

2) you are *much* more likely to be hospitalized with COVID than flu

3) It's very approximately 10x more likely to kill you.

4) There is no vaccine.

https://fullfact.org/health/coronavirus-compare-influenza/
 

roubaixtuesday

self serving virtue signaller
It is either someone is not reporting deaths at all, or others are contributing "extra" deaths to CV

Or alternatively:

Some countries have a test and trace policy (Korea), some are just behind us in time (Sweden) and lockdown will follow deaths rising, some are far more compliant to rules without a full lockdown (Japan), and combinations of the above.
 
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tom73

Guru
Location
Yorkshire
Not sure how to feel about that. Obviously she was v.silly and hypocritical but if her expertise is needed surely that is more important? I imagine she’ll still be kept in a less senior backroom role?


Nothing silly about it she's not some jumped up politician but a HCP she has a duty to act in a professional manner and she did not.
She showed clear lack of regard for public health she made a conscience decision not once but twice to do so.
You can't front a public health campaign then ignore it.
Actions have concquencers and in this case it was to lose her job. Yesterdays press conference was full of question after question about her and her clear lack of regard for public health. The bigger picture and message was just getting lost.
She had to go if she had gone quicker the story would have been over. But like so many in power she was so fair removed from relatively that she felt it will be ok and I can just carry on.
 

roubaixtuesday

self serving virtue signaller
Also tota

Where did you come up with 10x times more?

Note "Very approximately", some sources:

WHO:

Mortality for COVID-19 appears higher than for influenza, especially seasonal influenza. While the true mortality of COVID-19 will take some time to fully understand, the data we have so far indicate that the crude mortality ratio (the number of reported deaths divided by the reported cases) is between 3-4%, the infection mortality rate (the number of reported deaths divided by the number of infections) will be lower. For seasonal influenza, mortality is usually well below 0.1%. However, mortality is to a large extent determined by access to and quality of health care.

A summary of current science here:

https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.livescience.com/amp/new-coronavirus-compare-with-flu.html
 

Eziemnaik

Über Member
Note "Very approximately", some sources:

WHO:

Mortality for COVID-19 appears higher than for influenza, especially seasonal influenza. While the true mortality of COVID-19 will take some time to fully understand, the data we have so far indicate that the crude mortality ratio (the number of reported deaths divided by the reported cases) is between 3-4%, the infection mortality rate (the number of reported deaths divided by the number of infections) will be lower. For seasonal influenza, mortality is usually well below 0.1%. However, mortality is to a large extent determined by access to and quality of health care.

A summary of current science here:

https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.livescience.com/amp/new-coronavirus-compare-with-flu.html
Key words: appears, will take some time to understand, will be lower
Also mortality for seasonal flu is about .1 not well below

Also some most vulnerable population on Princess of diamonds - 800 cases, 12 deaths, again thats just worst case scenario, mortality rate less in whole society
 

HMS_Dave

Grand Old Lady
Note "Very approximately", some sources:

WHO:

Mortality for COVID-19 appears higher than for influenza, especially seasonal influenza. While the true mortality of COVID-19 will take some time to fully understand, the data we have so far indicate that the crude mortality ratio (the number of reported deaths divided by the reported cases) is between 3-4%, the infection mortality rate (the number of reported deaths divided by the number of infections) will be lower. For seasonal influenza, mortality is usually well below 0.1%. However, mortality is to a large extent determined by access to and quality of health care.

A summary of current science here:

https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.livescience.com/amp/new-coronavirus-compare-with-flu.html
Indeed. Although when taking into account Influenza, it does have a vaccine which isn't 100% able to protect you, it helps and also it's something that is also widespread. In no way detracting from the potency of Covid-19. It is a dangerous virus regardless and the true extent of its effects as you say won't be known for some time...
 

Eziemnaik

Über Member
Also my small summary of mortality rate in Japan and Korea
Less than 0.1%
 

Rocky

Hello decadence
Key words: appears, will take some time to understand, will be lower
Also mortality for seasonal flu is about .1 not well below

Also some most vulnerable population on Princess of diamonds - 800 cases, 12 deaths, again thats just worst case scenario, mortality rate less in whole society
And how do you know about the underlying health issues of those cruise ship passengers?
 

HMS_Dave

Grand Old Lady
In regards to the Diamond Princess Cruise ship, from reading it seems bizarre how the virus has effected people. https://www.forbes.com/sites/victor...ip-data-to-learn-about-covid-19/#1ccf2f6b406d

Particularly " The second study looked at computerized tomography (CT) scans taken from 112 people who had contracted confirmed COVID-19 on board the Diamond Princess ..... Of the 112 people scanned, 73% of them didn’t have any clinically obvious symptoms but half of these people had detectable changes in their lungs indicating some level of pneumonia. Of the 27% of people who did show COVID-19 symptoms, 4 out of 5 people showed abnormal CT findings.

Im no virologist or barely know what im talking about but it seems bizarre that 73% of those with no obvious symptoms actual had some pheumonia.
 
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