Coronavirus outbreak

[roubaixtuesday]

https://www.statnews.com/2020/03/17...e-are-making-decisions-without-reliable-data/

Ionnadis: Some worry that the 68 deaths from Covid-19 in the U.S. as of March 16 will increase exponentially to 680, 6,800, 68,000, 680,000 … along with similar catastrophic patterns around the globe. Is that a realistic scenario, or bad science fiction?

US deaths yesterday: 9648. The article has not aged well.

 

[Eziemnaik]

Ionnadis: Some worry that the 68 deaths from Covid-19 in the U.S. as of March 16 will increase exponentially to 680, 6,800, 68,000, 680,000 … along with similar catastrophic patterns around the globe. Is that a realistic scenario, or bad science fiction?

US deaths yesterday: 9648. The article has not aged well.

You are trying to cherry pick views which back up your prejudices.

Arent we all doing that?
Confirmation bias and all


Tomorrow ONS releases new stats total deaths in England and Wales,

 

[Rocky]

In regards to the Diamond Princess Cruise ship, from reading it seems bizarre how the virus has effected people. https://www.forbes.com/sites/victor...ip-data-to-learn-about-covid-19/#1ccf2f6b406d

Particularly " The second study looked at computerized tomography (CT) scans taken from 112 people who had contracted confirmed COVID-19 on board the Diamond Princess ..... Of the 112 people scanned, 73% of them didn’t have any clinically obvious symptoms but half of these people had detectable changes in their lungs indicating some level of pneumonia. Of the 27% of people who did show COVID-19 symptoms, 4 out of 5 people showed abnormal CT findings.

Im no virologist or barely know what im talking about but it seems bizarre that 73% of those with no obvious symptoms actual had some pheumonia.

The passengers average age was 62 and ranged between 25 and 93.

 

[HMS_Dave]

The passengers average age was 62 and ranged between 25 and 93.

Indeed. I was taken back by how the virus caused Pneumonia in people who didn't think they were infected and by quite a large number!

 

[Eziemnaik]

The passengers average age was 62 and ranged between 25 and 93.

So you agree they are old?

 

[roubaixtuesday]

.

Arent we all doing that?

No.

Trying to understand something you don't have expertise in does not involve picking single articles you believe support a view you have formed.

 

[Rocky]

Indeed. I was taken back by how the virus caused Pneumonia in people who didn't think they were infected and by quite a large number!

62 is not old. And it is impossible as some have done to infer anything about underlying health issues from that. I’m 63.....on that basis, I’d better book my funeral now.

 

[Eziemnaik]

.


No.

Trying to understand something you don't have expertise in does not involve picking single articles you believe support a view you have formed.

Have ypu included any articles you dont agree with in your picking?

 

[Mo1959]

62 is not old. And it is impossible as some have done to infer anything about underlying health issues from that. I’m 63.....on that basis, I’d better book my funeral now.

I'm coming up 61 and wouldn't class myself as old yet. My dad retired from a very physical job at 63 and then walked most of the Munros in his early retirement years. I think people are living better into older age now than at one time.

 

[HMS_Dave]

https://www.statnews.com/2020/03/17...e-are-making-decisions-without-reliable-data/

So you agree they are old?

First you'd have to agree to there being reliable data...

 

[mjr]

62 is not old. And it is impossible as some have done to infer anything about underlying health issues from that. I’m 63.....on that basis, I’d better book my funeral now.

Also, it's lower than the age selected by most governments for special protection measures (shielding/cocooning/isolation...)

 

[Eziemnaik]

I'm coming up 61 and wouldn't class myself as old yet. My dad retired from a very physical job at 63 and then walked most of the Munros in his early retirement years. I think people are living better into older age now than at one time.

Would you agree that on average 62 years old will have more underlying health issues than 20 year olds?

 

[Mo1959]

Would you agree that on average 62 years old will have more underlying health issues than 20 year olds?

All subjective. I know many in their early 60's that are drastically healthier and fitter than some 20 year olds, but I suppose on law of averages as your body ages obviously if you haven't cared for yourself well you will have more problems.

 

[HMS_Dave]

Would you agree that on average 62 years old will have more underlying health issues than 20 year olds?

I would be so bold as to say that a 62 year old potentially might have more underlying health issues than 20 year olds but that a 20 year could have more more underlying health conditions than a 62 year old. It's hardly a given...

 

[roubaixtuesday]

Would you agree that on average 62 years old will have more underlying health issues than 20 year olds?

Would you agree that richer people have less health issues than the overall population, and cruise ship vacationers are much wealthier than the overall population?

Here's the thing - you're desperately trying to justify a position based on a single, very unusual population in a very unusual situation and extrapolate it. Worse yet, you're relying on a single interpretation of that data. Worse again, you've misunderstood Ionnadis' article (he does NOT say it isn't worse than flu, merely that it's *possible* that it might not be based on a specific limited dataset)

And let's note again, the article has not aged well. It would not now be possible to write: "At most, we might have casually noted that flu this season seems to be a bit worse than average. " in the US.