Coronavirus outbreak

[deptfordmarmoset]

Best wishes to Johnson.

But I hate the spin:

"Routine tests" - yeah, 'cos loads of people are having overnight stays in hospital right now for "routine tests"

"still in charge of the government" - obviously not, and certainly shouldn't be.

A doctor on BBC News said that the standard tests would take approximately 2 hours. As head of the government, he wouldn't be subjected to ordinary mortals' waiting times so it would be shorter. Not an overnight stay's worth of a hospital bed, it's something more serious.

 

[Wobblers]

Went for my usual wee 10 mile loop (country lane out of town) and I was shocked by how many people there were out. I'm lucky if I see half a dozen people in total on that route usually, I probably saw well over a hundred today. Most in ones and twos, some family groups and a couple of large teenage groups. Although most were doing the social distancing thing, it wasn't always easy and I had to slow down a few times to let families pass each other and give me a relatively clear path. I can see why a photo would make it look like a large group of people but like I say, most were being sensible and keeping their distance.

Teenagers though They'll be the death of us.

Like you, I saw a surprising number of people on my government mandated daily exercise and vitamin D dosing session (Sunshine! Hazy, but still sunshine!) - both cyclists and walkers. There were a few groups - but they were clearly families. All were observing the social distancing. This is the thing: 99% are actually being sensible, and following the rules. It's just that the feckless foolish minority are so visible. It'll be a crying shame if this one release is removed just because of a minority of selfish idiots. I suspect it's more likely that we will be restricted to not travel more than one or two miles from home - ironically that will significantly increases the chances of exposure for those of us in towns and cities. The narrow pavements round Birkenhead are much more crowded than a couple of weeks before, and it's often impossible to maintain a 2 metre separation; I meet fewer people on the bike, and have enough space to avoid anyone I come across. A distance restriction will make things worse.

 

[deptfordmarmoset]

Apparently she offered to resign but it was refused initially because she is very good at her job.

And Sturgeon's instinct seems to be towards loyalty so I could well believe that account.

 

[slowmotion]

Scotland's CMO did something extremely stupid, but if she's good at her job, isn't she the sort of person that we need under the current circumstances?

 

[Unkraut]

A news extra had a piece on the queen addressing the nation. Was considered very good, much more personal and sympathetic than the govt has managed to far. Some amusement that she mentioned the war!

They did make the point that for all the respect being shown by the public for their NHS, they were not prepared to show this in putting more money into it, a reference to 10 years of cost savings by the Tories and the effect this has had. (I can't help wonder that this tendency to dig at the underfunding of the NHS is in part caused by some needle at Britain doing the big power thing over the last four years but cannot domestically provide a better health service for its population. It gets a bit annoying after a while.)

They also made the claim that if you are over 75 and taken very seriously ill there are no longer the resources to treat you. Is this true, or is this an exaggeration of the situation at present?

 

[Pale Rider]

Apparently she offered to resign but it was refused initially because she is very good at her job.

A lot of the resignation calls in cases such as these are more about good political sport, rather than genuine concern for the job being done well.

This case shows no evidence of the latter.

As a second home owner (a tin box in my case) I sympathise with the need for a maintenance visit, particularly if the property has been shut up for the winter.

The doctor packed up the family to go to her second home - the visits were no more than weekend jollies.

Saying she complied by steering clear of the smelly locals calls her judgment more into question, not less - her ignoring of the regulations was deliberate, thought out, and repeated.

It also shows a despicable attitude to those she is meant to be serving.

None of the above gives any indication she would be good at a public health job.

Quite the reverse, they indicate a person with poor judgment, and with no grasp of the behaviour required to occupy a senior taxpayer funded position.

 

[mjr]

They also made the claim that if you are over 75 and taken very seriously ill there are no longer the resources to treat you. Is this true, or is this an exaggeration of the situation at present?

I think exaggeration but I'm not in the worst-hit area and our press seems decreasingly objective now.

 

[slowmotion]

A news extra had a piece on the queen addressing the nation. Was considered very good, much more personal and sympathetic than the govt has managed to far. Some amusement that she mentioned the war!

They did make the point that for all the respect being shown by the public for their NHS, they were not prepared to show this in putting more money into it, a reference to 10 years of cost savings by the Tories and the effect this has had. (I can't help wonder that this tendency to dig at the underfunding of the NHS is in part caused by some needle at Britain doing the big power thing over the last four years but cannot domestically provide a better health service for its population. It gets a bit annoying after a while.)

They also made the claim that if you are over 75 and taken very seriously ill there are no longer the resources to treat you. Is this true, or is this an exaggeration of the situation at present?

I've spoken to a few friends outside the UK and they all mention things that their local media has told them about how their government's behaved better/worse than their neighbours etc etc. It's what the media does. I wouldn't read too much into it. When it's all over and we have a reliable body count, the media will bitch/crow about why it was worse/better than the count next door.

 

[Edwardoka]

You can tell how much attention I pay to matters after I've grown weary/sad/overwhelmed by them; I just now realised that the CMO for Scotland is the same person who's been in my ear all week on Spotify ads telling me not to make unnecessary journeys.

Yeah, her position was untenable. She might have been the best person for the job but it doesn't matter, her role isn't just what she does during office hours, given the magnitude of the crisis it's also that of a role model, and for her to be perceived as flouting the rules could only have had a significant impact on compliance.

 

[Wobblers]

I have been looking the last couple of weeks on developing countries' cases. In a lot of Africa I think every single country has a case now, taking a longer term view it's possible there could be moderately sized outbreaks in African in May (leaving a couple of months for things to circulate).

I'm not sure how much developing countries can learn from westerners - no masks, no vaccines, no testing, very little resources in many cases.

I have little doubt that the virus is circulating round the third world slums. These are places with little to no health surveillance, and fevers are common. Most cases are likely to be mistaken for dengue, malaria or possibly yellow fever.This is compounded by the lack of testing: only the most wealthy in places like sub-Saharan Africa are likely to get tested so we really have very little idea about what is happening there.

 

[Wobblers]

Germany has extensive testing and a death rate of about 1.5%. If the U.K. real death rate is also about 1.5% it means we have about 329,000 infections out there. We are only reporting 48,000 cases and we know these are mostly cases that have reached hospital. So about 281,000 infections out there that haven’t needed hospital. I wonder how many are asymptomatic?

We're only testing those who are hospitalised. Given that we can expect only 20% of known CV-19 cases (from the Chinese data) end up in hospital, that implies that there are 240,000 cases in total.

This, though, is likely the tip of the iceberg. I was careful to say "20% of known cases". That's because many cases, probably the majority, never reach the attention of the medical authorities. I've seen estimates run from only 1 in 4 cases being spotted all the way up to 1 in 19 being spotted. Ferguson in his paper modelling the epidemic assumed that 66% of all cases were spotted (rather high, and contrary to all the other published analyses I've seen). Chinese data suggests that only 1 in 7 infections were ever discovered by the authorities. Taking that into account suggests a true number of infections of between 360,000 and 1.6 million (using the Chinese data as the high estimate).

Many of these people will have recovered from the infection (though some still have the virus, and it's not clear as to whether or not they're still infectious). Many will be asymptomatic. And many will have sub-clinical symptoms: a slight snivel or sore throat, perhaps, or just feeling subpar for a few days. At the moment, it's impossible to tell, and without a intensive campaign of antibody testing to tell us who's been exposed to the virus and detailed medical histories from those who test positive we won't know.

 

[slowmotion]

We're only testing those who are hospitalised. Given that we can expect only 20% of known CV-19 cases (from the Chinese data) end up in hospital, that implies that there are 240,000 cases in total.

This, though, is likely the tip of the iceberg. I was careful to say "20% of known cases". That's because many cases, probably the majority, never reach the attention of the medical authorities. I've seen estimates run from only 1 in 4 cases being spotted all the way up to 1 in 19 being spotted. Ferguson in his paper modelling the epidemic assumed that 66% of all cases were spotted (rather high, and contrary to all the other published analyses I've seen). Chinese data suggests that only 1 in 7 infections were ever discovered by the authorities. Taking that into account suggests a true number of infections of between 360,000 and 1.6 million (using the Chinese data as the high estimate).

Many of these people will have recovered from the infection (though some still have the virus, and it's not clear as to whether or not they're still infectious). Many will be asymptomatic. And many will have sub-clinical symptoms: a slight snivel or sore throat, perhaps, or just feeling subpar for a few days. At the moment, it's impossible to tell, and without a intensive campaign of antibody testing to tell us who's been exposed to the virus and detailed medical histories from those who test positive we won't know.

I'm not in any way attempting to downplay the seriousness of this pandemic, but how would "conventional" flu stack up in your assessment above? It kills, on average, 17,000 UK inhabitants a year. Some people get a sniffle, some people die. Some people get it and never know. Is there a fundamental difference between it and Corona virus?

 

[Slick]

Not sure how to feel about that. Obviously she was v.silly and hypocritical but if her expertise is needed surely that is more important? I imagine she’ll still be kept in a less senior backroom role?

I'm the exact same. It would be so easy to wave good riddance but that mistake aside, she has exactly the expertise and experience to help guide us out this crisis. Shame

 

[slowmotion]

You can tell how much attention I pay to matters after I've grown weary/sad/overwhelmed by them; I just now realised that the CMO for Scotland is the same person who's been in my ear all week on Spotify ads telling me not to make unnecessary journeys.

Yeah, her position was untenable. She might have been the best person for the job but it doesn't matter, her role isn't just what she does during office hours, given the magnitude of the crisis it's also that of a role model, and for her to be perceived as flouting the rules could only have had a significant impact on compliance.

I don't know what balance was struck between PR skills and technical ability in her job description. Alas, it was probably the former. Did teeth whiteness feature?

 

[Eziemnaik]

Some fresh stats, food for thought nr are deaths per 1M of population
Sweden no lockdown 40/1M
Japan no lockdown 0.7/1M
S Korea no lockdown 4/1M

UK lockdown 73/1M
Spain lockdown 273/1M
France lockdown 124/1M

Think of it what you want
Actually, no
It is either someone is not reporting deaths at all, or others are contributing "extra" deaths to CV