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RoadRider400
Some bloke that likes cycling alone
At least 10x higher, and then there are the number of people needing ICU treatment which is being reported as much higher than other flu strains. I honestly question how much research some people are doing. Are they intentionally being pig ignorant? Or if they just believe what other people have told them.
I wonder at what point the deniers will finally wake up from their normalcy bias.
I doubt that we are not all reading the same things but coming to a different opinion, doesn't mean we are being pig ignorant. We all make our risk assessments in life, helmets an example, I work in a hospital but I've never had a flu jab in my life, doesn't mean I'll never have one when I am older. Am I worried about coronovirus? Nope and I will no doubt encounter it before most on here. Am I worried about contracting a worse infection? Yep. Despite fastidious personal hygiene one co-worker won't work again after last summer & another close co-worker nearly lost his leg in winter, I'll take coronovirus over MRSA any time thank you.
I am old enough to recall the swine flu fiasco in the USA where steps taken to help, caused more deaths than the flu.
I am old enough to recall the swine flu fiasco in the USA where steps taken to help, caused more deaths than the flu.
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kingrollo
Guru
I work in a hospital - but not in a clinical role. My understanding that death from MRSA is rare and there have been massive improvement s over recent years.
Obviously if young with no health conditions there is good chance u will be ok.
But a 2% fatality rate amongst older people , could impact a lot of people -and also impact on the NHS to deliver other services.
I've not made any lifestyle changes and will still be out socialising this weekend. I wouldn't be dismissive of this though.
nickyboy
Norven Mankey
- Location
- You want hills? We got hills
I'm not concerned about catching it either. But I am concerned about catching it and passing it on to members of my family more vulnerable than me. That's the issue for people in low risk categories such as yourself (I presume)
Rocky
Hello decadence
And that is why all NHS staff are strongly recommended to have a seasonal 'flu jab.........to prevent its spread.
Wobblers
Euthermic
- Location
- Minkowski Space
Isn't that a death ratio of 0.16%? That's way lower than for an old bloke laid up in hospital Wuhan, if the time comes I'll be self isolating on an all inclusive caribbean cruise.
Six deaths out of 700 infections is a death rate of close to 1%. Given that the infection has yet to run its course, it's likely that this rate will increase, sadly.
To put that into perspective, consider that, as @Brompton Bruce says, there's about 12 million over 65's in the UK. The total infection rate from that cruise ship was close to 20% (700 out of 3700 people onboard). That suggests that we could expect 2.4 million infections in this elderly - and vulnerable - population. A mortality of 1% means 24,000 deaths due to Covid-19. Compare that to flu: the winter of 2017-18 was considered to be exceptionally bad with about 350 deaths attributed to flu. Note that I've assumed that all those who become seriously ill get the treatment they require. In a major epidemic, that is unlikely: ICU places are a limited resource that will likely become overwhelmed. This is by no means the worst possible outcome.
I've based this on the Diamond Princess cruise ship outbreak - but these figures are reasonably similar to other sources: analysis of the infection rate gives numbers that indicate that between 30 and 60% of a vulnerable population will become infected. Data from China gives a mortality rate of 1-2% for elderly people.
The good news is that fewer people became infected than expected, especially considering the crowded conditions onboard a ship - that indicates that sensible precautions can make a significant reduction to the risk of becoming ill. There seems little justification in being complacent, but nor is there any need to panic. Over 95% of all infections are minor! Diligently washing hands and minimising your exposure to crowds and crowded areas will significantly reduce your exposure.
Smokin Joe
Squire
- Location
- Bare headed cyclist, Smoker
There are about 80,000 confirmed cases of Corona virus in China, out of a population of 1.42 billion. If my maths is correct (Or I've typed it into the online calculator correctly) that represents less than 1% of the population.
Doesn't seem so bad when you say it like that.
Doesn't seem so bad when you say it like that.
kingrollo
Guru
Yes - but China can force everyone to stay in doors.
Our economy depends on people buying stuff - and the free west can't imprison it's citizens.
slowmotion
Quite dreadful
- Location
- lost somewhere
I'm totally confused. Is the general consensus amongst the parishioners ….
a) we're all going to die
b) everything's pretty much OK
c) who cares either way? I like worrying.
?
a) we're all going to die
b) everything's pretty much OK
c) who cares either way? I like worrying.
?
Milzy
Guru
D) Earth needs a cull and doesn't want to pay out pensions?
Smokin Joe
Squire
- Location
- Bare headed cyclist, Smoker
True enough, but from what I gather they were slow to act when the virus first appeared whereas at least we're ready from the off.
This is all said without a view one way or the other, though. I wouldn't claim to have a clue about how dangerous this virus is or how likely that we can manage it..
