Coronavirus outbreak

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MarkF

Guru
Location
Yorkshire
Played badminton as usual this morning. Everyone's a healthy 60+.

In passing one man casually mentioned, as we were packing up, that he'd returned home on a charter flight from a 4 night break in Tenerife yesterday, and that he stayed near to the outbreak hotel! We were not overly impressed that he seemed unaware of any risk as he could've easily stayed away for a couple of weeks...

Scary sport, those sturdy fast moving shuttlecocks must pose a significant eye injury threat.

The ship had 3,711 on board (including crew), with the vast majority staying on board during the quarantine period. Surprised "only" 700 tested positive, given the (relatively) confined space they were in.
And tragically 6 have died.

Isn't that a death ratio of 0.16%? That's way lower than for an old bloke laid up in hospital Wuhan, if the time comes I'll be self isolating on an all inclusive caribbean cruise.:okay:
 

MarkF

Guru
Location
Yorkshire
 

Rocky

Hello decadence
Scary sport, those sturdy fast moving shuttlecocks must pose a significant eye injury threat.




Isn't that a death ratio of 0.16%? That's way lower than for an old bloke laid up in hospital Wuhan, if the time comes I'll be self isolating on an all inclusive caribbean cruise.:okay:
I'm sure you are being flippant......both the doctors in my family (spouse and younger son) are taking this a little more seriously though. The evidence is that this has just begun and will get dramatically worse. Prof Peter Piot from the LSHTM thinks so too


View: https://twitter.com/FT/status/1233364095224729601?s=20


(It's behind a paywall but you can get a couple of free articles a month)
 

MarkF

Guru
Location
Yorkshire
Of course l think it will get worse, l also think the death rate will remain low & very, very low for most of us. It won't be the last such virus we see but they'll go the same way, die out through vaccine/immunisation or have to be accepted as a health risk, like many far worse viruses are. Its not in the top 10 of viruses you wouldn't like to get....
 

MichaelO

Guru
Did you read Prof Piot's article?
The article spent more time describing their meal than giving any substantial evidence about coronavirus!
 

Rocky

Hello decadence
The article spent more time describing their meal than giving any substantial evidence about coronavirus!
It depends on what you mean about substantial.......I agree that it is a character piece and never meant to provide epidemiological data. However, given someone of his stature is concerned about the severity of the current crisis, speaks volumes. Here's another quote from him on the BBC Today Programme:

“We can’t be over prepared. Whether this is a pandemic or not is immaterial because it doesn’t make any difference to what we have to do. Every country has to prepare and some are better prepared than others. The UK have one of the best public health systems in in the world and all measures up to now have been able to contain the spread, but in today’s world an epidemic thousands of miles away from here is no longer just a local affair.”

And this from the NY Times: about the situation in Iran, amid the country reporting the highest number of deaths from the virus outside of China. Peter said: “It is a recipe for a massive viral outbreak.”
 

mjr

Comfy armchair to one person & a plank to the next
First article is from the Irish Times, says "The threat from the virus is real" but cites no sources for most stuff. Also says "the mortality rate among people infected with flu is about 0.13 per cent. The risk of dying from coronavirus is thought to be around 2 per cent".

Second is from the Speckly 'Tater, cites the US CDC for seasonal flu deaths but not cases and gives no source for its claim of "79,331 confirmed cases worldwide" and about 2600 deaths, which disagrees slightly with the WHO Situation Report for the day given (Monday). Its conclusion inexplicably confuses the new case number peaking in China with peaking globally.

A far more reliable discussion of the numbers can be obtained from More or Less: Behind the Stats: WS More or Less: Coronavirus - The Numbers http://www.bbc.co.uk/programmes/p083d5yv - that's from 15 Feb, but I'm sure an update will be along if anything fundamental changes.
 

nickyboy

Norven Mankey
With respect, I'll go with the WHO and a whole cohort of experts in epidemiology than unreferenced pieces written by The Spectator and the Irish Times

People who seek to suggest that the risk has been overstated point to China and say that they have it under control with only a couple of thousand deaths. That's true. But China is uniquely placed to have the political system and resources to lock down a whole nation. Western countries cannot take the China approach. To see what might work take a look at Singapore. That's much more like a Western country and it has succeeded in slowing the rate of infection. How has it done this? By throwing enormous resource at the problem. They track down contacts of known cases, test rigorously, quarantine effectively. It requires a huge effort

The alternative to this huge effort is that we accept an infection model more like Italy (which had only two cases 7 days ago). If we do that we risk accepting large scale deaths of those vulnerable to the virus. Comparing Coronavirus to flu is a false equivalence. Coronavirus is much more deadly. Coronavirus is much more transmittable. Coronavirus has a much longer period when it is transmittable before symptoms become apparent
 
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