Coronavirus outbreak

[Rusty Nails]

Its an un-peer reviewed study by an electrical engineer. Here it is.

https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.03.25.20041475v1

It projects a *maximum* daily death rate for the UK of 260.

Deaths yesterday in the UK were... ...260.

The study has already been overtaken by events.

You know what they say.....there is no fool like an old***fool.

 

[oldfatfool]

My main point is the not knowing. For journos to start talking about 20000 dead in the UK is just sensationalism, and fear mongering, the government hasn't stopped this sort of reporting though as it? How many cases of death through pneumonia with underlying issues have occurred before February that were actually attributable to covid? How big a percentage of the population as already had it and either put it down to the flu or self isolated? How many deaths are being attributed to covid 19 and how many are from covid 19? Talking to one NHS worker, and not the cleaner before anyone says it, and they are saying people dying who would maybe have received different treatment if it wasn't for cv19 are having their demise attributed to cv19. How many cv 19 patients who have died might have developed pneumonia as a result of flu if they hadn't developed cv instead? Not belittling cv nor feeling any less sympathetic for anyone who gets it or as relatives suffering with it. I posted previously my sons fiancee thinks she had it and was in a high risk group but still just got told to stay at home. My father died of pneumonia with underlying issues 2 years ago, I haven't been more 200yds from the house since last Tuesday and won't if I don't have to, but I still don't buy what we are being sold. Maybe there is something more to it and they are trying to avoid hysteria (doubtfully with social media as it is) or it is a snowball that as gathered so much momentum worldwide it can't be stopped if they wanted to.

 

[All uphill]

Mutation of the virus is another possible way out, to something less lethal, possibly more contagious, hopefully giving immunity against the troublesome strain. IIRC that's basically how the 1918 flu crisis ended.

You remember the 1918 crisis? How old are you?

 

[glasgowcyclist]

For journos to start talking about 20000 dead in the UK is just sensationalism, and fear mongering

That figure wasn’t made up by a journalist, it was an assessment given by NHS England medical director Prof Stephen Powis: If UK death toll is kept below 20,000, "we will have done very well".

 

[Rezillo]

The bold I quoted was the comparison to seasonal flu, why doesn't the country or world for that matter go into lock down for the flu every year? Look at flu statistics and 100's of thousands die from the flu every year but no one bat's an eyelid, no one panics when they get a cold everyone continues to work. I get that this covid 19 may be more virulent and may have a greater death rate (we can't say for sure because no one knows exactly how many people have had it as mass testing isn't happening) BUT I don't get why flu is ignored compared to this. There as to be something we aren't being told, whether that is an agenda on a worldwide scale or to avoid mass panic I don't know.

It's because like is not being compared with like. The tested and confirmed flu deaths are in the order of a few hundred per year, even in bad years, whereas the figures of tens of thousands of flu cases are extrapolations from excess winter deaths, where not all are tested or ascribed to flu as a cause. In general, deaths from all causes go up during a flu outbreak across a season. Just what proportion of these deaths are ascribable to flu or where flu is a contributory factor is a controversial topic but the NHS usually copes because many of these cases die at home and those that are hospitalised and die there are spread over months.

https://www.bmj.com/content/361/bmj.k2795/rr-6

It's self-evident that what has happened in China, Iran, Italy and Spain etc. is nothing like a bad flu season. The stats from Wuhan for confirmed hospitalised cases showed that in their critical category, there was a 49% mortality. For deaths overall, 33% had no co-morbid condition. Another set of earlier stats had 100% of Critical cases with bi-lobar pneumonia. The only good point from this was that all the Wuhan deaths were in the Critical category, so even the cases one grade below that, "Severe", survived.

There will be excess winter deaths due to Covid-19; just that we don't know yet how many. While Covid-19 is very much not flu, it does cause flu-like symptoms and there is a reporting system for these. It is worth keeping an eye on the weekly reports. The most recent one showed a rise.

https://www.gov.uk/government/statistics/weekly-national-flu-reports-2019-to-2020-season


Chinese case categories:

Mild included non-pneumonia and mild pneumonia cases. Severe was characterized by dyspnea, respiratory frequency ≥30/minute, blood oxygen saturation ≤93%, PaO2/FiO2 ratio <300, and/or lung infiltrates >50% within 24–48 hours. Critical cases were those that exhibited respiratory failure, septic shock, and/or multiple organ dysfunction/failure

 

[vickster]

My main point is the not knowing. For journos to start talking about 20000 dead in the UK is just sensationalism, and fear mongering, the government hasn't stopped this sort of reporting though as it? How many cases of death through pneumonia with underlying issues have occurred before February that were actually attributable to covid? How big a percentage of the population as already had it and either put it down to the flu or self isolated? How many deaths are being attributed to covid 19 and how many are from covid 19? Talking to one NHS worker, and not the cleaner before anyone says it, and they are saying people dying who would maybe have received different treatment if it wasn't for cv19 are having their demise attributed to cv19. How many cv 19 patients who have died might have developed pneumonia as a result of flu if they hadn't developed cv instead? Not belittling cv nor feeling any less sympathetic for anyone who gets it or as relatives suffering with it. I posted previously my sons fiancee thinks she had it and was in a high risk group but still just got told to stay at home. My father died of pneumonia with underlying issues 2 years ago, I haven't been more 200yds from the house since last Tuesday and won't if I don't have to, but I still don't buy what we are being sold. Maybe there is something more to it and they are trying to avoid hysteria (doubtfully with social media as it is) or it is a snowball that as gathered so much momentum worldwide it can't be stopped if they wanted to.

The 20000 number was quoted by NHS England Medical Director in the press conference yesterday which is what the press are presumably reporting

Coronavirus: No time for complacency, says NHS England https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-52078750

Cross posted with @glasgowcyclist

 

[oldfatfool]

It's because like is not being compared with like. The tested and confirmed flu deaths are in the order of a few hundred per year, even in bad years, whereas the figures of tens of thousands of flu cases are extrapolations from excess winter deaths, where not all are tested or ascribed to flu as a cause. In general, deaths from all causes go up during a flu outbreak across a season. Just what proportion of these deaths are ascribable to flu or where flu is a contributory factor is a controversial topic but the NHS usually copes because many of these cases die at home and those that are hospitalised and die there are spread over months.

https://www.bmj.com/content/361/bmj.k2795/rr-6

It's self-evident that what has happened in China, Iran, Italy and Spain etc. is nothing like a bad flu season. The stats from Wuhan for confirmed hospitalised cases showed that in their critical category, there was a 49% mortality. For deaths overall, 33% had no co-morbid condition. Another set of earlier stats had 100% of Critical cases with bi-lobar pneumonia. The only good point from this was that all the Wuhan deaths were in the Critical category, so even the cases one grade below that, "Severe", survived.

There will be excess winter deaths due to Covid-19; just that we don't know yet how many. While Covid-19 is very much not flu, it does cause flu-like symptoms and there is a reporting system for these. It is worth keeping an eye on the weekly reports. The most recent one showed a rise.

https://www.gov.uk/government/statistics/weekly-national-flu-reports-2019-to-2020-season


Chinese case categories:

Mild included non-pneumonia and mild pneumonia cases. Severe was characterized by dyspnea, respiratory frequency ≥30/minute, blood oxygen saturation ≤93%, PaO2/FiO2 ratio <300, and/or lung infiltrates >50% within 24–48 hours. Critical cases were those that exhibited respiratory failure, septic shock, and/or multiple organ dysfunction/failure

Well all I can say is the more accurate information that is provided then the better informed everyone will be. For instance according to the cdc there have been over 23000 deaths in the USA from flu this year, in the graph presented earlier in this thread flu deaths in NY run at 125+ a week 52 weeks a year. When you look at those sort of figures then it is hard not to wonder why flu is ignored (in context with the current situation) and why cv19 is being treated so extremely. But then as as been pointed out I am but a fool, old and fat at that so maybe I won't be long for this earth in any case. Stay safe all.

 

[PK99]

Well all I can say is the more accurate information that is provided then the better informed everyone will be. For instance according to the cdc there have been over 23000 deaths in the USA from flu this year, in the graph presented earlier in this thread flu deaths in NY run at 125+ a week 52 weeks a year. When you look at those sort of figures then it is hard not to wonder why flu is ignored (in context with the current situation) and why cv19 is being treated so extremely. But then as as been pointed out I am but a fool, old and fat at that so maybe I won't be long for this earth in any case. Stay safe all.

Why do you keep saying flu is ignored?

It isn't!

I have had a free flu jab every year for the past 5 or 6, because of chest vulnerabilities, and flu virus mutating every year.

Why is Covid-19 being treated so extremely? - If you cannot work that out by now there is no hope of your ever understanding.

 

[Tanis8472]

c19 is not bloody influenza.
its a SARS Virus. different animal.

 

[roubaixtuesday]

And how would you do that without some sort of ID card to enforce?
or was your earlier assertion that these are a good idea?

This is worth thinking about.

We cannot sustain society in the current shutdown state for more than a few weeks or months at most, whereas a vaccine is at least a year, probably longer away.

The test and trace policy in Korea seems to involve widespread monitoring of movement and contacts via mobile phone records. That, or something similar will be presumably needed here too once the peak is passed.

Which leaves us a terrible choice:

Hundreds of thousands of deaths, or government surveillance, or long term social shutdown likely leading to collapse.

You have to choose one of these three. Which one do you fancy?

 

[vickster]

This is worth thinking about.

We cannot sustain society in the current shutdown state for more than a few weeks or months at most, whereas a vaccine is at least a year, probably longer away.

The test and trace policy in Korea seems to involve widespread monitoring of movement and contacts via mobile phone records. That, or something similar will be presumably needed here too once the peak is passed.

Which leaves us a terrible choice:

Hundreds of thousands of deaths, or government surveillance, or long term social shutdown likely leading to collapse.

You have to choose one of these three. Which one do you fancy?

I'm not anti ID cards, never have been. I was responding his earlier post.
Sooner we get back to normality the better.
Antibody tests great, but there seems to be some doubt as to whether they work reliably

 

[oldfatfool]

Why do you keep saying flu is ignored?

It isn't!

I have had a free flu jab every year for the past 5 or 6, because of chest vulnerabilities, and flu virus mutating every year.

Why is Covid-19 being treated so extremely? - If you cannot work that out by now there is no hope of your ever understanding.

In the context of bloody cvid19 it is, the jab doesn't stop the flu, there are still 000000's of deaths and a lock down would stop a vast majority of them but the don't lock down do they.

 

[Rezillo]

I think there is going to be to have to be some kind of tested status accreditation, assuming we get a reliable test. Cards and certificates are not going to be the way forward in the UK; we've already seen scrotes stealing NHS id cards. Having infected people roam around while claiming immune status from faked or stolen id doesn't bear thinking about.

My guess is tamper-proof chipped wrist bands until we either have herd immunity or a vaccine is produced. A police state's dream. However, if testing does reveal widespread asymptomatic infection levels, then it might never come to that. We could have a largely immune population much earlier than currently thought. However, I fear this is just wishful thinking.

 

[geocycle]

This is probably the most authoritative source regarding the science

https://coronavirusexplained.ukri.org/en/

 

[lazybloke]

In the context of bloody cvid19 it is, the jab doesn't stop the flu, there are still 000000's of deaths and a lock down would stop a vast majority of them but the don't lock down do they.

Covid19 has an estimated mortality rate or 1%, but puts a much larger number (19%) in hospital.

So for every 19 admissions with CV, 18 will survive if they receive appropriate treatment (in many cases, weeks of treatment).
But CV is overwhelming healthcare systems. Once the hospital beds are full, how many of those 18 will also die from lack of available treatment?


That's the key difference between CV and flu. Flu only stresses healthcare systems, it doesn't totally overwhelm them.