Coronavirus outbreak

[Ajax Bay]

A mouse origin of the SARS-CoV-2 Omicron variant?
[Study by Institute of Genetics and Developmental Biology, Chinese Academy of Sciences, and Genetics Society of China, in Journal of Genetics and Genomics.]

The rapid accumulation of mutations in the SARS-CoV-2 Omicron variant may have occurred in either humans or another mammalian host.

• 45 point mutations that Omicron acquired since divergence from the B.1.1 lineage.
• Omicron spike protein sequence was subjected to stronger positive selection than that of any reported SARS-CoV-2 variants known to evolve persistently in human hosts, suggesting a possibility of host-jumping.
• The molecular spectrum of mutations of pre-Omicron was significantly different from the spectrum for viruses that evolved in human patients but resembled the spectra associated with virus evolution in a mouse cellular environment.
• Mutations overlapped with SARS-CoV-2 mutations known to promote adaptation to mouse hosts, particularly through enhanced spike protein binding affinity for the mouse cell entry receptor.

"Collectively, our results suggest that the progenitor of Omicron jumped from humans to mice, rapidly accumulated mutations conducive to infecting that host, then jumped back into humans, indicating an inter-species evolutionary trajectory for the Omicron outbreak."

 

[ClichéGuevara]

Please see below for death registrations for 2020 and 2021 (provisional) that were due to COVID-19 and were recorded without any pre-existing conditions, England and Wales.

2020: 9400 (0-64: 1549 / 65 and over: 7851)

2021 Q1: 6483 (0-64: 1560/ 65 and over: 4923)

2021 Q2: 346 (0-64: 153/ 65 and over: 193)

2021 Q3: 1142 (0-64: 512/ 65 and over: 630)

https://www.ons.gov.uk/aboutus/tran...hsfromcovid19withnootherunderlyingcauses?s=08

 

[Ajax Bay]

Adding to the figures @ClichéGuevara shared above (offering the complete numbers to put the 'without any pre-existing conditions' figure in context):

2020: 9400 (0-64: 1549 / 65 and over: 7851) - Total (E&W) for 2020 = 71k
2021 Q1: 6483 (0-64: 1560/ 65 and over: 4923) - Total (E&W) for 1Q 2021 = 46k
2021 Q2: 346 (0-64: 153/ 65 and over: 193) - Total (E&W) for 2Q 2021 = 1k
2021 Q3: 1142 (0-64: 512/ 65 and over: 630) - Total (E&W) for 3Q 2021 = 8k

 

[Rocky]

Interesting figures…..I keep asking myself why certain people are keen to discount deaths of people with pre-existing conditions (no jibes at anyone here). Surely, as a society we value people regardless of their underlying condition. Does having diabetes, COPD, dementia, arteriosclerosis, Parkinson’s etc etc make you any less of a person? In fact shouldn’t we be protecting our vulnerable? Their deaths count just as much as a fit able bodied human.

People who are not fully able still make major contributions to society.

 

[classic33]

Interesting figures…..I keep asking myself why certain people are keen to discount deaths of people with pre-existing conditions (no jibes at anyone here). Surely, as a society we value people regardless of their underlying condition. Does having diabetes, COPD, dementia, arteriosclerosis, Parkinson’s etc etc make you any less of a person? In fact shouldn’t we be protecting our vulnerable? Their deaths count just as much as a fit able bodied human.

Speaking for myself, SUDEP would be the most likely listed cause of death.

As a result of a pre-existing condition. Other causes could be used.

 

[Rocky]

Speaking for myself, SUDEP would be the most likely listed cause of death.

As a result of a pre-existing condition. Other causes could be used.

But Classic, your life is just as valuable as mine and we are just as valuable as a twenty year old who is fit and healthy. We shouldn’t be treated as second class citizens who somehow don’t really count when it comes to protecting us against Covid - or any other disease for that matter.

 

[classic33]

But Classic, your life is just as valuable as mine and we are just as valuable as a twenty year old who is fit and healthy. We shouldn’t be treated as second class citizens who somehow don’t really count when it comes to protecting us against Covid - or any other disease for that matter.

For me, primary cause of death: SUDEP was the most likely to appear five years ago, not just these last two. It's human nature to seek the easiest answer.

I don't consider myself second class due to epilepsy, never have done.

 

[KnittyNorah]

Interesting figures…..I keep asking myself why certain people are keen to discount deaths of people with pre-existing conditions (no jibes at anyone here). Surely, as a society we value people regardless of their underlying condition. Does having diabetes, COPD, dementia, arteriosclerosis, Parkinson’s etc etc make you any less of a person? In fact shouldn’t we be protecting our vulnerable? Their deaths count just as much as a fit able bodied human.

People who are not fully able still make major contributions to society.

While I agree with you 100% about every individual death being 'equal', regardless of what disease, condition or syndrome a person might be living with, I don't think anyone here - or in the ONS, for that matter - is discounting anyone else's deaths by merely producing these figures.

They are simply putting all those deaths into a context where it can be seen that those without pre-existing conditions - which pre-existing conditions range very widely, from a recognised and diagnosed serious illness to those who might outwardly appear to be 'fairly healthy except for some/being a bit/having XXX' - are vastly, VASTLY more likely to not have a lethal outcome than are those who are almost any degree of 'unwell'.

If anything, it should lead those of us who are the healthy and well to offer more protection - active protection, not lock-yourself-away, stay-out-of-society, so-called protection - to the unwell and more vulnerable of all degrees.

Of course there are far too many selfish b@$t@rd$ who will, and do, seek, at the first opportunity, to upset any carefully-balanced applecart of safety, and those of us who remain vulnerable be it by pre-existing condition or more generally by age alone, will need to continue to be very careful for some considerable time to come ...

 

[classic33]

While I agree with you 100% about every individual death being 'equal', regardless of what disease, condition or syndrome a person might be living with, I don't think anyone here - or in the ONS, for that matter - is discounting anyone else's deaths by merely producing these figures.

They are simply putting all those deaths into a context where it can be seen that those without pre-existing conditions - which pre-existing conditions range very widely, from a recognised and diagnosed serious illness to those who might outwardly appear to be 'fairly healthy except for some/being a bit/having XXX' - are vastly, VASTLY more likely to not have a lethal outcome than are those who are almost any degree of 'unwell'.

If anything, it should lead those of us who are the healthy and well to offer more protection - active protection, not lock-yourself-away, stay-out-of-society, so-called protection - to the unwell and more vulnerable of all degrees.

Of course there are far too many selfish b@$t@rd$ who will, and do, seek, at the first opportunity, to upset any carefully-balanced applecart of safety, and those of us who remain vulnerable be it by pre-existing condition or more generally by age alone, will need to continue to be very careful for some considerable time to come ...

Does that mean I don't have as much responsibility as anyone with no underlying condition?

 

[KnittyNorah]

Does that mean I don't have as much responsibility as anyone with no underlying condition?

No, but I think the population in general have more responsibility to behave considerately towards your condition (if you choose to make them aware of that condition, or wish to take advantage of any extra consideration) than they do towards a person who does not have any condition which makes C-19 more risky, for whatever reason.
And you too - like everyone else in society - have more responsibility towards others with vulnerabilities to infection, in the same sort of way, even if you don't care about yourself in any way.

 

[mistyoptic]

Interesting figures…..I keep asking myself why certain people are keen to discount deaths of people with pre-existing conditions (no jibes at anyone here). Surely, as a society we value people regardless of their underlying condition. Does having diabetes, COPD, dementia, arteriosclerosis, Parkinson’s etc etc make you any less of a person? In fact shouldn’t we be protecting our vulnerable? Their deaths count just as much as a fit able bodied human.

People who are not fully able still make major contributions to society.

I didn’t see the reason for separate figures in quite the same way.

I took it that they were trying to distinguish between deaths in people with co-morbidity and deaths in those who were deemed to be in “normal health” (whatever that might mean).

This distinction because if someone has other health conditions which impact their body’s ability to fight COVID then that might affect the proportion of people in that group for whom the infection proves fatal.

I didn’t see any suggestion that one death was any more or less important than any other, more a part of trying to understand the impact of the pandemic

 

[classic33]

No, but I think the population in general have more responsibility to behave considerately towards your condition (if you choose to make them aware of that condition, or wish to take advantage of any extra consideration) than they do towards a person who does not have any condition which makes C-19 more risky, for whatever reason.
And you too - like everyone else in society - have more responsibility towards others with vulnerabilities to infection, in the same sort of way, even if you don't care about yourself in any way.

I've done my best(The scout leader in me) to do the best I've been able over the last two years. Awkward at times, annoying at others. The latter due to peoples expectations.

I'm open about the epilepsy, trying to break down the "mystery" behind it. Appreciate your use of condition though.

 

[Ajax Bay]

as a society we value people regardless of their underlying condition. . . . . We shouldn’t be treated as second class citizens who somehow don’t really count when it comes to protecting us against Covid

I agree with the posters above various, and you Rocky. Everyone is going to catch Omicron this year, even with the protection vaccination and/or prior infection might offer. For the vast majority (thank goodness not Delta) suitably boosted and spurred, Omicron will asymptomatic or mild, even bad flu. For those with comorbidities and drawing a pension (and working or not) there is greater risk, worse than flu but not a magnitude worse.
To put figures on that: in January 2020 the number of deaths in England and Wales "involving and due to Influenza and Pneumonia" averaged 2700 a week (and 2020 was average (2015-2019) for all cause death in January). Currently per week (Covid +ve test within 28 days) death rate is about 1600. Likely one of our resident medics will provide better insight.
For those without underlying conditions and under 65 the chances of severe illness is very low (figures from above are Delta, so Omicron a percentage less (data with a narrow(er) CI follows shortly)). Knowing the figures (with an assurance of quality: the ONS ones in Cliche's post in the context of the overall deaths) and understanding the implications allows people to estimate the risk as opposed to suffering from a wide confidence interval fear factor as we move to living with another infectious disease.

 

[SpokeyDokey]

But Classic, your life is just as valuable as mine and we are just as valuable as a twenty year old who is fit and healthy. We shouldn’t be treated as second class citizens who somehow don’t really count when it comes to protecting us against Covid - or any other disease for that matter.

It really hacked me off when a friend callously disregarded the deaths of very old Covid victims (over 80's in their words) as having 'had their life'.

Presumably he will jump off of a cliff edge on his 80th birthday if he should reach that milestone.

 

[Milzy]

It really hacked me off when a friend callously disregarded the deaths of very old Covid victims (over 80's in their words) as having 'had their life'.

Presumably he will jump off of a cliff edge on his 80th birthday if he should reach that milestone.

That’s terrible. If Australian government hadn’t done what they have many elderly & obese elderly would have died. It hacks me off when they say Omicron is just a cold. It may be weaker but more transmitted so can kill high risk folks nearly as much as Delta.