Coronavirus outbreak

[Johnno260]

Our childrens primary school are at the point of closing, if they lose one more member of staff to isolation for Covid then it will have to close.

 

[fossyant]

How often a week are you testing?
Currently twice a week myself.

Me not much, until Xmas, been testing twice weekly since. Wife and daughter twice weekly. Son.. not as much, but tests probably weekly.

We've burnt through about 4 boxes though in the last few weeks, there we were feeling smug with lots... used up

 

[Alex321]

How often a week are you testing?
Currently twice a week myself.

I'm testing once a week - before I go to Morris practice on a Thursday.

With no going into the office until the Welsh government ease the restrictions, I hardly see anybody otherwise. My daughter may be coming over this weekend, and if she is, then I'll test Saturday morning as well.

 

[mjr]

Precis:
When RH < 50% – office air – the aerosol-borne virus had lost around half of its infectivity within five seconds.
At 90% humidity very high eg bathroom immediately after shower, infectivity decline much slower: half of its infectivity in five minutes.

Very interesting. Thanks for sharing. This could also help explain the notorious outbreaks in gyms where one person infected 30+ in a class of less than an hour, but they probably shared a changing room/shower area too.

 

[gbb]

The Dynamics of SARS-CoV-2 Infectivity with Changes in Aerosol Microenvironment study suggests that as the viral particles leave the relatively moist and carbon dioxide-rich conditions of the lungs, they rapidly lose water and dry out and a rapid increase in pH. Both of these factors disrupt the virus’s ability to infect human cells, but the speed at which the particles dry out varies according to the relative humidity of the surrounding air.
Precis:
When RH < 50% – office air – the aerosol-borne virus had lost around half of its infectivity within five seconds.
At 90% humidity very high eg bathroom immediately after shower, infectivity decline much slower: half of its infectivity in five minutes.
Temperature = no difference.
Real world deduction: In a pub primary risk is drinking group not other people in pub.
Chance of catching it from a rider whose wheel you're sucking = nil.
Highlights the importance of wearing a mask (mainly for others' benefit) in situations where people cannot physically distance.

Despite the numbers of staff at our work, many who travel together on buses, don't wear masks, or when they do, do so poorly/reluctantly, fail to socially distance, follow rules one way systems etc etc etc, we apper to have done ok as far as infections go. Some of this maybe air filtration, its a new factory with quite comprehensive and complex air filtration and circulation...added weekly fogging, compulsory (although not adhered to perfectly) mask wearing in food production areas.
In essence,despite a largely non compliant workforce, I'm staggered I haven't caught it, it'd be easy to conclude we're lucky to have a good air environment ...or wearing a mask indeed does offer very good protection (as well as regular use of alcohol based sanitiser)..in all, probability all three plus taking personal responsibility, something that is staggeringly lacking in a huge section of folk IME.

 

[Johnno260]

I think people assume vaccination means you can reduce things like mask wearing and social distancing.

I'm boosted and still do all of those, the vaccine doesn't make you impervious as some think, I think it's where communication could be better.

 

[rockyroller]

get your booster ppl! Neice caught covid & not feeling well. 2 jabs, not 3 & she has underlying conditions ...

 

[KnittyNorah]

I think people assume vaccination means you can reduce things like mask wearing and social distancing.

I'm boosted and still do all of those, the vaccine doesn't make you impervious as some think, I think it's where communication could be better.

Yes, all this with knobs on!

I wear a N-95 respirator mask, unvalved, when using public transport or in any indoor environment which is one or more of busy, crowded, strangers, more than the very occasional non-masker and there-more-than-15 minutes; I keep my distance and have no compunction about asking others to keep theirs. In Lidl today for about 10 minutes - very uncrowded and everyone I saw was masked and consciously distancing - I wore a standard 3-ply mask.
On the bus, if a non-masked person makes to sit beside me, I get out of my seat and move away as I have no wish to share an unmasked person's air, undiluted and at such close quarters. I try to avoid crowded/rush hour times; I appreciate not everyone can do that. I put a bag beside me and move it onto my lap when a masked person gets on in the hope that they will sit beside me rather than the unmasked one who gets on before or after! Takes a bit of slick timing but it often works.

 

[Ajax Bay]

the ones who died from complications from the vaccines?

After 6 months of vaccinations 45 million vaccines had been administered in UK.
7 Jul 2021: UK MHRA had received 1446 Yellow Card reports of suspected adverse drug reactions in which the patient died shortly after vaccination. The majority of these Yellow Card reports were in older people or people with underlying illnesses (UK MHRA).
This is a rate of 32 per million.
In 2020 (pre-vaccine) there were 80,830 deaths involving COVID-19 registered in England and Wales and about 49k of these were over 80s. There are about 3M aged over 80 in England and Wales (also ONS population estimates).
This is a tragic rate of ~1600 per million.
Darwin v Robert Redford (punk)?

 

[Ajax Bay]

Rate of hospital admissions flat. After the precipitous fall in recorded cases since 1 Jan, we'd have expected to drop more than it has in the last days. Why hasn't it?

From Wednesday's ONS update: 7% of people infected with Covid (week to 7 Jan, England).
Pre-Covid annual admissions England averaged 17M (say 60k per Jan day).
All admissions are PCR tested so with 60k daily admissions and 7% of them 'with' Covid, = 4,200 incidental covid admissions per day. But actually ~2,000 daily admissions (with a +ve test before or once admitted (England).

Maybe there won't be much decrease in the admissions rate as we move to endemic circulation because of incidental admissions, until the infection rate is a fair bit lower? Hypothesis links with reports that half of all Covid admissions in London are now incidental admissions (patients are not primarily being treated for Covid).

The problem remains (for NHS and beyond) of the resource requirements and complications of people in hospital having Covid. Infection control in hospitals will become increasingly important: lack of suppression starts re-charging the pandemic potential in the population. Sustainable control measures against nosocomial infections are a key part of this. And this:
https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/uk-end-covid-pandemic-b1991297.html

 

[Ajax Bay]

From 'How are we doing?'

Sounds very similar to the common cold.............

Which bit, the 150,000+ deaths?

Off topic, but:
No, you lazy bloke, the symptoms described of the dominant Omicron variant. This variant has caused a magnitude (or three) fewer (UK) deaths (<2,500 and that figure includes all those 'with' (incidentals) as well as 'caused by').
From Zoe, current symptoms
Runny nose, 73%
Headache, 68%
Fatigue, 64%
Sneezing, 60%
Sore throat, 60%
Persistent cough, 44%
other stuff

 

[deptfordmarmoset]

From 'How are we doing?'



Off topic, but:
No, you lazy bloke, the symptoms described of the dominant Omicron variant. This variant has caused a magnitude (or three) fewer (UK) deaths (<2,500 and that figure includes all those 'with' (incidentals) as well as 'caused by').
From Zoe, current symptoms
Runny nose, 73%
Headache, 68%
Fatigue, 64%
Sneezing, 60%
Sore throat, 60%
Persistent cough, 44%
other stuff

A minor curiosity about Omicron symptoms - according to Spector's latest video, certain countries are reporting a prevalence of ''lower back pain'' as a symptom but this is not appearing strongly in UK Zoe participants. It's not in the top 30 symptoms in their list.

 

[MrGrumpy]

Lower back pain, hmm how long has omicron been a round

 

[Ajax Bay]

How do COVID-19 metrics compare to previous waves?​

The OWID chart below visualizes the main COVID metrics relative to the peak of the January wave (before vaccination programme).
The graph lines have each been set to show their January peaks coincident at 100% (y-axis) and time-shifted (x-axis).
Cases - 1 Jan
Deaths - 19 Jan
Hospital occupancy - 19 Jan
ICU MV bed - 23 Jan

 

[Ajax Bay]

To add, note that hospital bed occupancy (<20k) now is almost exactly half the peak 12 months ago and about 15% of all bed NHS capacity.
Mercifully, deaths (with or of COVID-19) are 'only' 1700 per week (close to 10000 last January)(UK data). In a pre-COVID era (average of 2015-2019) about 13,000 die (all causes, England and Wales) in each week of January.