Coronavirus outbreak

[lazybloke]

Well looking at the graph I shared and taking a 15 day moving average, deaths per day (all cause) have been rising since late April - not sure what you mean by steady: is that a log plot? From early Jul @ 22 to a peak on 6 Sep of 146, the death from COVID-19 rate has mercifully dropped >25%.
"I don't see how with so many vaccinated this could jump massively." Nor do I: because it didn't "jump massively". It gradually increased (doubling time of (average) 20 days, like a low, slow swell (@mjr ), which looks to half in 50 days (last 25 days' data). I expect a seasonality effect (less ventilation indoors) to slow the trailing slope of this wave through autumn.
If by age or morbidities an individual has a higher CFR, then a 90% protection of a double jab reduces that chance by an order of magnitude, but the chance is still way higher than an unvaccinated x year old (x<50). [This observation designed to address your "so many vaccinated" caveat.]
The "alarming rates in secondary schools" news is 'old news': that 15-19 cohort rate is falling off. But it did result (correlation) in an increase fifteen days (5 to catch it, 10 to pass it on within household) after term start in the parent age cohort (35-50s) and a slight one a week ago in the grandparent cohort (unvaccinated multi-generational households perhaps).

Might be "Old news" to you but I was commenting on what I assumed was a very recent BBC news report that showed a near doubling of cases since the previous week. Seems fairly massive to me, albeit only in a specific age group - but all eyes are on that age group since they went back to school as the vaccinations are late. (Later thanbother age groups).
, 1 in 20 of that age group are positive, i believe this is the highest at any time in the whole pandemic.

It's why I looked at deaths next, and was relieved to see that growth rates there are "steady".
That's steady in the sense of plain English, a casual comment, not a mathematical analysis.

Okay with you?

 

[KnittyNorah]

What is very easy to forget in the media-driven frenzy of the present time, is that the anti-vaxxer rhetoric has been running, almost unchanged (other than for minor details), for somewhat more than 200 years.

Although the world has changed greatly, the emotions, deep-rooted beliefs and oppositional 'arguments' - whether scientific/anti-scientific, economic, philosophical, political, or spiritual - that underlie vaccine opposition have remained very much the same since Edward Jenner introduced vaccination.

Clearly there is 'something' in many people which predisposes them to this 'set of beliefs'. What it is, I do not know. Just as there are supposedly-'qualified' nurses and doctors in this group of people today, so there were back in the early 1800s. One doctor in particular, who still supported the older system of variolation for providing immunity from smallpox, described fictional side effects from Jenner's cowpox vaccination such as 'cowpox face', and speculated that British women 'might wander in the fields to receive the embraces of the bull.'

We may laugh at those claims now, with our 'superior' knowledge, but apart from small details such as that (today's details are that your DNA will be changed - much the same, in essence!), the protests in the 19thC would be perfectly recognisable as something that could happen today, albeit the clothing worn by the participants, and the type of media coverage would differ. Mere details, once again.

In Leicester, there was a march of an estimated 100,000 people against compulsory vaccination; they carried child-sized coffins and beheaded an effigy of Edward Jenner. In Montreal, more than a thousand people gathered outside a provincial health board office to smash windows, and break doors; gunshots were reportedly heard.
Plus ça change, plus c'est la même chose ...

Caricaturists and cartoonists of the time excelled themselves in some of their illustrations of the claims of those early anti-vaxxers. Vaccination had become quite widespread in France and England by the beginning of the 19th century and was energetically attacked by fearmongers in satirical pamphlets showing victims acquiring vaccine-host-animal qualities or worse.

Gare la Vaccine - Triomphe de la Petite Verole
(Mind the Vaccine, Triumph of Smallpox)

 

[Ajax Bay]

I looked at deaths next, and was relieved to see that growth rates there are "steady".
That's steady in the sense of plain English, a casual comment, not a mathematical analysis.

Of course it's 'OK with me'. But, with a nod to your forum name, suggesting that COVID-19 associated deaths per day are "growing steadily" is not 'lazy': I've managed to mislead. The first graph I shared showed that ALL CAUSE death rate had steadily risen since late April. I was concerned you'd misunderstood.
Here's the graph of UK deaths (Open source gov.uk; I don't like using such data but you raised the issue) from early July till 29 Sep.
The growth rate is steady till 9 Sep, gentle, then a steep (steady?) fall since 20 Sep (>25% in 9 days): good news.
Further falls are built in since hospital admissions have been falling since 6 Sep (1015 down to 723) and C-19 bed occupancy since 12 Sep (about 8300 to <7000).
The continuing high case rate around the country (UK) is affording many of those who won't get vaccinated or haven't been offered it (Under 15.75s) 'natural immunity' if they survive: at a cost of risk of long covid and disruption to their schooling and 'life'.

 

[Johnno260]

What is very easy to forget in the media-driven frenzy of the present time, is that the anti-vaxxer rhetoric has been running, almost unchanged (other than for minor details), for somewhat more than 200 years.

Although the world has changed greatly, the emotions, deep-rooted beliefs and oppositional 'arguments' - whether scientific/anti-scientific, economic, philosophical, political, or spiritual - that underlie vaccine opposition have remained very much the same since Edward Jenner introduced vaccination.

Clearly there is 'something' in many people which predisposes them to this 'set of beliefs'. What it is, I do not know. Just as there are supposedly-'qualified' nurses and doctors in this group of people today, so there were back in the early 1800s. One doctor in particular, who still supported the older system of variolation for providing immunity from smallpox, described fictional side effects from Jenner's cowpox vaccination such as 'cowpox face', and speculated that British women 'might wander in the fields to receive the embraces of the bull.'

We may laugh at those claims now, with our 'superior' knowledge, but apart from small details such as that (today's details are that your DNA will be changed - much the same, in essence!), the protests in the 19thC would be perfectly recognisable as something that could happen today, albeit the clothing worn by the participants, and the type of media coverage would differ. Mere details, once again.

In Leicester, there was a march of an estimated 100,000 people against compulsory vaccination; they carried child-sized coffins and beheaded an effigy of Edward Jenner. In Montreal, more than a thousand people gathered outside a provincial health board office to smash windows, and break doors; gunshots were reportedly heard.
Plus ça change, plus c'est la même chose ...

Caricaturists and cartoonists of the time excelled themselves in some of their illustrations of the claims of those early anti-vaxxers. Vaccination had become quite widespread in France and England by the beginning of the 19th century and was energetically attacked by fearmongers in satirical pamphlets showing victims acquiring vaccine-host-animal qualities or worse.
View attachment 611944
Gare la Vaccine - Triomphe de la Petite Verole
(Mind the Vaccine, Triumph of Smallpox)

The fact that their arguments haven’t really changed in that period says it all really, it’s just anti science/progression.

As soon as I hear the phrase do your own research, I just end up retorting research with trash resources is still garbage.

 

[midlife]

Just had Covid booster in one arm and flu in the other at work. Hub was very busy and we are directly emailed to book.

Our service seems to be at a steady state with about 30 sick people with covid at any one time. Way below the 300 at the height but enough to fill ITU and spill over into recovery.

 

[mjr]

Latvia is having a new lockdown, closing most shops, hospitality, entertainment and schools, and imposing a 2000-0500 curfew. Prime Minister Krisjanis Karins called it unfair and said "I have to apologise to the already vaccinated" which is only 54% of their population. The Latvian President tested positive last week. Latvia has 827 cases per 100k this week (UK is currently 455 cases/100k with 67.8% vaccinated, both from OurWorldInData). https://www.reuters.com/world/europ...eks-lockdown-covid-19-cases-spike-2021-10-18/

Case numbers are also looking bad in Lithuania, Estonia and Romania, with Romania having by far the highest death rate and its population only 30% vaccinated. Bulgaria is also having an above-average death rate with its population only 20% vaccinated.

Ireland is slowing its planned reopening as both cases and hospitalisations rise there (despite case numbers well below UK at 265/100k and vaccination slightly higher at 75%). Nightclubs and late bars will reopen after 19 months closed and stadium sports return to full capacity, but bars remain mostly seated in tables of maximum 10 and other live venues stay all-seater with capacity limits. The general work-from-home advice also remains in place. https://www.thejournal.ie/22-october-reopening-5581039-Oct2021/

 

[roubaixtuesday]

Romania having by far the highest death rate and its population only 30% vaccinated

Romania seems to be a disaster area right now, population only ~20 million but nearly half the total EU deaths.

 

[mjr]

Romania seems to be a disaster area right now, population only ~20 million but nearly half the total EU deaths.

I think you mean nearly half this week, not half the total. In absolute terms, they're only the sixth-highest, but still disproportionately badly (they're seventhmost-populous EU country but only about half the people of the sixthmost, Poland), worsening quickly, and all a bit worrying for those with family connections there.

 

[roubaixtuesday]

I think you mean nearly half this week, not half the total. In absolute terms, they're only the sixth-highest, but still disproportionately badly (they're seventhmost-populous EU country but only about half the people of the sixthmost, Poland), worsening quickly, and all a bit worrying for those with family connections there.

Yes, I meant half of the current total deaths in the EU, not half the cumulative total. Awful situation.

 

[mjr]

Romania and Bulgaria have introduced restrictions including mask mandates, wide use of the Covid pass and curfews for unvaccinated people.

Merck has requested EMA review of its Emory-developed covid-antiviral tablet, molnupiravir, which seems from trials to halve risks of hospitalisation and death in high-risk patients from delta, gamma and mu variants.

 

[SpokeyDokey]

Professor Andrew Pollard (man behind the AZ vaccine) reported as saying that most patients in ICU have not been jabbed at all.

Anyone got any stat's on this please?

IMO, unless there is a clear medical/psychological reason the unjabbed (currently about 5 milliuon strong) shouldn't be allowed out of their houses ie locked down until the idiots get their act together.

Talked to three last week, one who won't have it on principle FFS. She couldn't define what this principle was. Two others were tradesmen (electrician and plumber) who were arrogant tits in their 30's who said they both worked out and were fit and healthy so why did they need it.

We should be focussing more on these idiots instead of the flame fueling hysteria from eg the Beeb suggesting that we should all suffer with eg another frigging lockdown.

I'm all for passports - no passport no acces to public transport or any entry to any public space.

Tossers the lot of them.

 

[PK99]

Professor Andrew Pollard (man behind the AZ vaccine) reported as saying that most patients in ICU have not been jabbed at all.

Anyone got any stat's on this please?

IMO, unless there is a clear medical/psychological reason the unjabbed (currently about 5 milliuon strong) shouldn't be allowed out of their houses ie locked down until the idiots get their act together.

Talked to three last week, one who won't have it on principle FFS. She couldn't define what this principle was. Two others were tradesmen (electrician and plumber) who were arrogant tits in their 30's who said they both worked out and were fit and healthy so why did they need it.

We should be focussing more on these idiots instead of the flame fueling hysteria from eg the Beeb suggesting that we should all suffer with eg another frigging lockdown.

I'm all for passports - no passport no acces to public transport or any entry to any public space.

Tossers the lot of them.

As in Vancouver.
No photo id and vaccine proof no entry to cafes, bars, restaurants

 

[classic33]

Professor Andrew Pollard (man behind the AZ vaccine) reported as saying that most patients in ICU have not been jabbed at all.

Anyone got any stat's on this please?

IMO, unless there is a clear medical/psychological reason the unjabbed (currently about 5 milliuon strong) shouldn't be allowed out of their houses ie locked down until the idiots get their act together.

Talked to three last week, one who won't have it on principle FFS. She couldn't define what this principle was. Two others were tradesmen (electrician and plumber) who were arrogant tits in their 30's who said they both worked out and were fit and healthy so why did they need it.

We should be focussing more on these idiots instead of the flame fueling hysteria from eg the Beeb suggesting that we should all suffer with eg another frigging lockdown.

I'm all for passports - no passport no acces to public transport or any entry to any public space.

Tossers the lot of them.

And if you've ended up in hospital due to a reaction to the "safe for you*" vaccine, what then?

*Decision made for me, not by me.

 

[roubaixtuesday]

Anyone got any stat's on this please?

Published weekly, latest here.

Page 17 for inpatients, ~2/3 unvaxxed by my reading.

https://assets.publishing.service.g...27511/Vaccine-surveillance-report-week-42.pdf

shouldn't be allowed out of their houses ie locked down until the idiots get their act together.

I think house arrest for idiocy may be seen as a little OTT, counterproductive even...

 

[BoldonLad]

Professor Andrew Pollard (man behind the AZ vaccine) reported as saying that most patients in ICU have not been jabbed at all.

Anyone got any stat's on this please?

IMO, unless there is a clear medical/psychological reason the unjabbed (currently about 5 milliuon strong) shouldn't be allowed out of their houses ie locked down until the idiots get their act together.

Talked to three last week, one who won't have it on principle FFS. She couldn't define what this principle was. Two others were tradesmen (electrician and plumber) who were arrogant tits in their 30's who said they both worked out and were fit and healthy so why did they need it.

We should be focussing more on these idiots instead of the flame fueling hysteria from eg the Beeb suggesting that we should all suffer with eg another frigging lockdown.

I'm all for passports - no passport no acces to public transport or any entry to any public space.

Tossers the lot of them.

Yes, saw that on the national news, sorry no more information.

On our local news, there was Head, or Deputy Head of a local Hospital (Teeside), saying Government should re-introduce "Covid Restrictions", he did not spell out exactly what, but, presumably Lock Down. His reasoning was that he had some young patients (un vaccinated) in the hospital with Covid, and, one or two had died. His view was "supported" by interviewing an elderly unvaccinated Covid Patient who gave a spiel on why people should NOT get vaccinated (she stated that none of her family, all the way down to grandchildren) were un-vaccinated.

Why are we giving these people air time?