Coronavirus outbreak

[lane]

The question is will it top out at 100k infections a day? If it's doubling every few days.

 

[kingrollo]

The question is will it top out at 100k infections a day? If it's doubling every few days.

Why should it ?

I suppose there will be peak covid - where the disease makes so many people I'll that they don't go out thus the virus can not sustain that number of infections. That might be higher than 100k though ...I also think Boris would be forced to act before that happened.

 

[lane]

I would recommend that people watch this video by Dr John Campbell. He quotes Professor Neil Ferguson says cases could go to 150,000 per day or even 200,000. The Prof also says pressure on health care system, slight gamble, reasonably optimistic. Worse case may need to be a course correction later.

Dr John Campbell calculates that hospitalisations 1.7% to 1.96% currently. In January hospitalisations were 6.4%


View: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mLwn3CML0DQ

 

[Mo1959]

I would recommend that people watch this video by Dr John Campbell. He quotes Professor Neil Ferguson says cases could go to 150,000 per day or even 200,000. The Prof also says pressure on health care system, slight gamble, reasonably optimistic. Worse case may need to be a course correction later.

Dr John Campbell calculates that hospitalisations 1.7% to 1.96% currently. In January hospitalisations were 6.4%


View: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mLwn3CML0DQ

One of the Scottish hospitals already struggling!

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-highlands-islands-57735232

 

[lane]

One of the Scottish hospitals already struggling!

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-highlands-islands-57735232

Realistically we must be looking at hospitalisations of 1,000 a day if not more. How long can that go on without the NHS being under too much pressure to cope?

 

[lane]

Although the end of self isolation for those double vaccinated will ease pressure on staffing.

 

[cambsno]

That we're now seeing talk of mask wearing being a matter of "personal conscience" after the 19th July - this is extraordinarily unwise. Removing restrictions is likely to worsen the situation. It might be a good idea to avoid crowds and crowded areas (especially indoors) for at least couple of months. Especially if you're in a vulnerable category, or haven't yet been fully vaccinated.

As Chris Whitty said, if we dont relax now, when can we?

Schools are off for 6 weeks which is a plus. So too (hopefully) the nice weather.

If we dont relax now then we do this when kids go back, it gets colder, which is the start of virus season.

 

[cambsno]

@McWobble I agree with you.

It seems that we've suddenly moved to a fully open society, leaving everyone to survive how they can. An 'if you're not vaccinated then that's your problem' approach.

Sajid Javed's looking at the financial impact, not the health one, so it becomes a free-for-all from July 19,th.

I've been careful, but around a lot of people this past week due to my son racing a lot. Now that's reducing I'm stepping back and not mixing. Otley races were far too packed this week and too risky for my own health, even if I'm no longer classed as vulnerable

With a few exceptions, if you are not vaccinated then tough, thats your choice! As things stand, anyone over 40 who wants it will be double jabbed in the next week or so. Those under 40 are very low risk, marginal and they will have had at least one jab.

For many people, financial impact is the same as health impact. I know many whose health (physical and mental) has suffered doe to financial impact, I knew someone who took their own life over financial impacts so the two are linked.

 

[cambsno]

Now, let's say this really is about personal responsibility and choices. Unless it is moved to telephone again, I will be going to hospital in Cambridge next month. I expect I will need to either ride it all or park and pedal because the gov-controlled trains will no longer be requiring masks, so I will need to eat before coming back. What cafes/restaurants will still be taking reasonable covid precautions? Will I bE effectively forced to choose between high-covid-risk and low-comfort options like eating takeaway outdoors possibly under an umbrella like during lockdown?

You could always wear a proper mask - I mean, the ones in hospitals which are 100% effective v Covid. Then it doesn't matter if others are not.

 

[cambsno]

I have often wondered why it is necessary to wear a mask on the train or in the shop but not in a restaurant. It would be inconsistent to require a mask on the train but not in a crowded pub. Maybe the government wants to encourage you to spend lots of money in the pub.

Have you tried eating and drinking with a mask?

 

[kingrollo]

With a few exceptions, if you are not vaccinated then tough, thats your choice! As things stand, anyone over 40 who wants it will be double jabbed in the next week or so. Those under 40 are very low risk, marginal and they will have had at least one jab.

For many people, financial impact is the same as health impact. I know many whose health (physical and mental) has suffered doe to financial impact, I knew someone who took their own life over financial impacts so the two are linked.

Lower risk of dying yes. Lower risk of long covid. No.
My son's GF is 22 - her sense of smell hasnt returned in 10 months - she is physically sick at the smell of chicken. Even if someone had eaten chicken hours ago.

Work colleague 50 - ill with covid for 7 months. Still to breathless to leave the house.

 

[kingrollo]

You could always wear a proper mask - I mean, the ones in hospitals which are 100% effective v Covid. Then it doesn't matter if others are not.

Only if they are fitted 100% correctly. You can't just whack one on. If you do the protection is no better than a cloth mask.

 

[lane]

Data predicts 2m UK summer Covid cases with 10m isolating according to the Gurdian

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2...2m-uk-summer-covid-cases-prompts-health-fears

It's going to be an interesting summer

 

[kingrollo]

As Chris Whitty said, if we dont relax now, when can we?

Schools are off for 6 weeks which is a plus. So too (hopefully) the nice weather.

If we dont relax now then we do this when kids go back, it gets colder, which is the start of virus season.

I really had hoped for better than " if not now when ?"

What about when our infection rate isn't the worst in Europe ?

 

[lane]

Only if they are fitted 100% correctly. You can't just whack one on. If you do the protection is no better than a cloth mask.

That's the second such post by you in the past couple of days. Do you have a link from an authoritative source confirming that please?