Coronavirus outbreak

[kingrollo]

I think that you are right.

The point is that the greater percentage of the adult population are as fully protected as they can be with the current vaccines that we have.

Agreed.

But if the virus is freely transmitted by under 18s then it isn't going to go away. And will erode into the double jabbed.

Like I mentioned a few posts back Israel is reimposing restrictions despite an extensive vaccine program. I think to a greater or lesser extent we will end up doing the same.

 

[Deleted User]

Agreed.

But if the virus is freely transmitted by under 18s then it isn't going to go away. And will erode into the double jabbed.

Like I mentioned a few posts back Israel is reimposing restrictions despite an extensive vaccine program. I think to a greater or lesser extent we will end up doing the same.

I think to a greater or lesser extent you might be right, we'll have to wait and see.

 

[Ajax Bay]

The effectiveness of 2 jabs is down to 64% in Israel and is likely to drop further.

That's Pfizer for you, administered only 3 weeks apart, I guess, not jolly reliable Oxford stuff, or doses sensibly split by 8-12 weeks to give better, longer lasting protection (source not available). All vaccines' protectiveness percentage will wane "likely to drop" over time, so thanks for sharing that insight. The key additional info (please share) is at what rate is the effectiveness estimated to drop.
Btw, please share the 'in Israel down to 64% and waning' link.

 

[kingrollo]

The Man who'll be going to the Pub without a Mask on and to Watch a football game!

Nowt wrong with that. There's a risk and you're prepared to take it.

Unfortunately a lot of people are going to fall into ill health early in their life - I wonder how many Johnson can tolerate before being forced to act

 

[roubaixtuesday]

Agreed re adults.

Does it matter if the whole population can transmit the virus - that's a given surely.

What matters is protection levels and how many succumb which is currently very low despite increased number of cases.

I thought the post was the degree of risk an individual took in a crowd or similar. It was argued that was low because most people were double vaxxed. That's not the case. But like I said, perhaps I've misinterpreted.

Not sure what constitutes "succumbing" or "very low", but "currently" isn't the issue, it's the trajectory.

I would certainly agree that vaccination is a damn good thing and the current wave would be far, far worse without it.

 

[roubaixtuesday]

I think to a greater or lesser extent we will end up doing the same.

I don't. We'll just let people suffer and tell them they're living with the virus.

 

[roubaixtuesday]

Btw, please share the 'in Israel down to 64% and waning' link.

https://www.timesofisrael.com/israe...ective-against-delta-variant-eyes-third-dose/

Not sure if the actual data is anywhere.

Personally I'm sceptical of such a large drop and wonder what the confidence interval is, or the skew on population.

 

[kingrollo]

I don't. We'll just let people suffer and tell them they're living with the virus.

Yes I know Boris will try that one. But I really think he has miscalculated here.

 

[Deleted User]

I don't. We'll just let people suffer and tell them they're living with the virus.

I was being sarcastic to be fair, everyone can predict something might happen to a greater or lesser extent as its so vague.

I doubt there will be any restrictions unless the death toll ramps up considerably and I'm guessing the vaccine has kept that under control.

New cases makes no odds to me as long as you're not too ill or hospitalised.

 

[kingrollo]

I was being sarcastic to be fair, everyone can predict something might happen to a greater or lesser extent as its so vague.

I doubt there will be any restrictions unless the death toll ramps up considerably and I'm guessing the vaccine has kept that under control.

New cases makes no odds to me as long as you're not too ill or hospitalised.

But that's thing. Long covid does make you seriously ill.

 

[Ajax Bay]

As at 5 Jul, 34M vaccinated with both doses. Another 11M have had one dose. 14 days to 19 Jul (so those 45M together have some protection: different percentages).
Another 8M adults (O/18) are unvaccinated (some through choice). Of those about (maybe) 2M have previously been infected (including asymptomatic) so have anty bodies.
14M under 18s, of whom maybe 3M have previously been infected (including asymptomatic) so have antibodies.
Leaves 17M still 'unprotected' on 19 Jul (almost exactly 25%).
In progress to herd immunity terms (infection, not severe/hospitalisation), that's about 36M equivalents (so 54% equivalent of UK population). The increased infectiousness of the delta variant means its 'R' number is high and therefore the percentage needed to get to herd immunity is higher than for the Alpha variant. We can only estimate that number but maybe 75%. If the vaccine programme continues at pace (hopefully faster than at present) AND JCVI decide that there is merit in vaccinating the youth, we might make this by September. From this PoV only, natural acquisition of antibodies will help.

 

[roubaixtuesday]

Yes I know Boris will try that one. But I really think he has miscalculated here.

I don't think so.

He got away with the highest death toll in the world first wave. He got away with the literally lethal fiasco when he imposed a lockdown the day after schools went back after Christmas.

You could say he's got away with murder.

Nothing now could be close to as bad. Seriously.

 

[lane]

As at 5 Jul, 34M vaccinated with both doses. Another 11M have had one dose. 14 days to 19 Jul (so those 45M together have some protection: different percentages).
Another 8M adults (O/18) are unvaccinated (some through choice). Of those about (maybe) 2M have previously been infected (including asymptomatic) so have anty bodies.
14M under 18s, of whom maybe 3M have previously been infected (including asymptomatic) so have antibodies.
Leaves 17M still 'unprotected' on 19 Jul (almost exactly 25%).
In progress to herd immunity terms (infection, not severe/hospitalisation), that's about 36M equivalents (so 54% equivalent of UK population). The increased infectiousness of the delta variant means its 'R' number is high and therefore the percentage needed to get to herd immunity is higher than for the Alpha variant. We can only estimate that number but maybe 75%. If the vaccine programme continues at pace (hopefully faster than at present) AND JCVI decide that there is merit in vaccinating the youth, we might make this by September. From this PoV only, natural acquisition of antibodies will help.

From all I have seen and I have no specific sources to quote 75% is a very optimistic estimate.

 

[lane]

I don't think so.

He got away with the highest death toll in the world first wave. He got away with the literally lethal fiasco when he imposed a lockdown the day after schools went back after Christmas.

You could say he's got away with murder.

Nothing now could be close to as bad. Seriously.

Lets hope not

 

[kingrollo]

I don't think so.

He got away with the highest death toll in the world first wave. He got away with the literally lethal fiasco when he imposed a lockdown the day after schools went back after Christmas.

You could say he's got away with murder.

Nothing now could be close to as bad. Seriously.

Dunno - most people didn't get covid last year. Now we seem to be accepting that 100k people a day will get covid.
The implications of that ie mutations, long covid, organ damage will imo rack up.

I don't believe the UK can sustain 100k infections per day for any length of time.

I also wonder if there would be public led lockdown. Will people stop eating out, stop doing high risk jobs , .