Coronavirus outbreak

[Buck]

If anyone thinks that vaccination is going to result in reducing cases quickly, by itself, take a look at Israel's current experience.
They've vaccinated nearly half their population and yet their current daily cases are 78 per 100,000 (7-day average). (This is over twice the UK-wide rate, and worse than the worst borough in UK.)
https://covid19.eng.ox.ac.uk/tracker.html
I wonder if widespread vaccination has meant less adherence to prudent transmission-minimising behaviours? If so that's a lesson we need to keep clearly in mind.

The vaccination programme at present is very much about lowering the level of infection that an individual experiences and symptoms that whilst concerning will not lead to hospitalisation.

Indeed it may be that those vaccinated can carry the virus but are effectively asymptomatic. Too early to say. They don’t have the research evidence yet.

I know of two people that have had the vaccine (both doses) yet their antibody testing has come back negative i.e. no anti-bodies developed

 

[mjr]

Indeed it may be that those vaccinated can carry the virus but are effectively asymptotic.

Asymptotic as in they tend to be asymptomatic but never quite actually get there?

 

[Buck]

Asymptotic as in they tend to be asymptomatic but never quite actually get there?

that’ll be the one! Now corrected.

 

[rockyroller]

Daughter's boyfriend tested positive & has to quarantine. no symptoms at this point. he's some distance away & she hasn't seem him for about 3 weeks, so she's in the clear. she's not sure she can see him anytime soon. they planned a get together mid-February

 

[midlife]

Wonder why he was tested without symptoms?

 

[rockyroller]

Wonder why he was tested without symptoms?

A group of ppl where he works had to be tested because someone in the group had covid. I don’t know any details about what got the ball rolling

 

[PK99]

Interesting article in the Grauniad today,
https://www.theguardian.com/world/c...aking-culture-covid-deaths-societies-pandemic
(the article is by Author of the original paper)


In research that tracked more than 50 countries, published this week in the Lancet Planetary Health, my team and I show that, taking into account other factors, loose cultures had five times the number of cases that tight cultures did, and more than eight times as many deaths.

Remarkably, our analysis of data from the UK firm YouGov revealed that people in loose cultures had far less fear of the Covid-19 virus throughout 2020, even as cases skyrocketed. In tight nations, 70% of people were very scared of catching the virus. In loose cultures, only 49% were.

[ Relative to the US, the UK, Israel, Spain and Italy, countries like Singapore, Japan, China and Austria have been shown to be much tighter.]


with the original Lancet paper here:
https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lanplh/article/PIIS2542-5196(20)30301-6/fulltext

Findings
The results indicated that, compared with nations with high levels of cultural tightness, nations with high levels of cultural looseness are estimated to have had 4·99 times the number of cases (7132 per million vs 1428 per million, respectively) and 8·71 times the number of deaths (183 per million vs 21 per million, respectively), taking into account a number of controls. A formal evolutionary game theoretic model suggested that tight groups coordinate much faster and have higher survival rates than loose groups. The results suggest that tightening social norms might confer an evolutionary advantage in times of collective threat.

 

[SpokeyDokey]

Interesting article in the Grauniad today,
https://www.theguardian.com/world/c...aking-culture-covid-deaths-societies-pandemic
(the article is by Author of the original paper)


In research that tracked more than 50 countries, published this week in the Lancet Planetary Health, my team and I show that, taking into account other factors, loose cultures had five times the number of cases that tight cultures did, and more than eight times as many deaths.

Remarkably, our analysis of data from the UK firm YouGov revealed that people in loose cultures had far less fear of the Covid-19 virus throughout 2020, even as cases skyrocketed. In tight nations, 70% of people were very scared of catching the virus. In loose cultures, only 49% were.

[ Relative to the US, the UK, Israel, Spain and Italy, countries like Singapore, Japan, China and Austria have been shown to be much tighter.]


with the original Lancet paper here:
https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lanplh/article/PIIS2542-5196(20)30301-6/fulltext

Findings
The results indicated that, compared with nations with high levels of cultural tightness, nations with high levels of cultural looseness are estimated to have had 4·99 times the number of cases (7132 per million vs 1428 per million, respectively) and 8·71 times the number of deaths (183 per million vs 21 per million, respectively), taking into account a number of controls. A formal evolutionary game theoretic model suggested that tight groups coordinate much faster and have higher survival rates than loose groups. The results suggest that tightening social norms might confer an evolutionary advantage in times of collective threat.

Interesting article and maybe something to factor into the post-pandemic debate.

Maybe this is why we are seeing the current problems in the Netherlands?

 

[Oldhippy]

I see Ryanair are proclaiming summer will be fine to travel abroad! I suspect this is more to have cash in the bank than on any real evidence. If they do know it will be fine the government should maybe defer to Ryanair for advice. Why would anyone even contemplate believing this to be true? Judging by lockdown, ease up, lockdown, ease up just to see it run riot again must surely see it isn't over by a long shot just yet. Worrying that people are so eager throw caution aside and pretend it's all good from an arbitrary date.

 

[tom73]

I see Ryanair are proclaiming summer will be fine to travel abroad! I suspect this is more to have cash in the bank than on any real evidence. If they do know it will be fine the government should maybe defer to Ryanair for advice. Why would anyone even contemplate believing this to be true? Judging by lockdown, ease up, lockdown, ease up just to see it run riot again must surely see it isn't over by a long shot just yet. Worrying that people are so eager throw caution aside and pretend it's all good from an arbitrary date.

Hancock even believes it's he's on the recored as saying we can look forward to great British Summer he's off to Cornwall already booked it.

 

[Oldhippy]

Ridiculous in my opinion. Maybe someone high up has given the virus a stiff talking to and made it clear that people want to carry on as normal. 🤣

 

[Ajax Bay]

Booking a summer holiday gives people something to look forward to. Don't you think that's a good idea? Cornwall sounds an excellent option. Or (insert British Isles venue of choice). If people don't book now, all the best places will be full up. With a reasonable tailwind the UK will have achieved herd immunity by the time the schools break up, and hospitalisation and death rates will be back to 'normal year' levels (just as they were from mid-June to mid-September last year) - in fact they'll almost certainly be lower, for obvious reasons.
This doesn't mean that the precautions we are taking across the country at present can be lifted this month, but their effect, and that of the vaccination programme removing the vulnerable 88% from even hospitals (at least with COVID-19), will lay the foundations for the summer, drastically ease the extraordinary pressure on the NHS, and allow the country to get back to work, enabling the economy to recover (in part to help pay for the NHS).

 

[Oldhippy]

Working on the assumption it doesn't mutate again of course. Not a bet I would place money on myself.

 

[Ajax Bay]

Working on the assumption it doesn't mutate again of course. Not a bet I would place money on myself.

Working on the assumption that the vaccination programme is effective, in both rate and effectiveness.
Not a bet any bookie would take. The virus (all viruses) mutate all the time. The issue is whether COVID-19 throws out a variant which the current set of vaccines show low effectiveness against and is at least as transmissible as the original, and even then the world fails to control it.
And that's a bet which leaders across the world are making: I suggest the odds are good.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-55534727

 

[roubaixtuesday]

Working on the assumption that the vaccination programme is effective, in both rate and effectiveness.
Not a bet any bookie would take. The virus (all viruses) mutate all the time. The issue is whether COVID-19 throws out a variant which the current set of vaccines show low effectiveness against and is at least as transmissible as the original, and even then the world fails to control it.
And that's a bet which leaders across the world are making: I suggest the odds are good.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-55534727

The J&J vaccine showed good effectiveness, albeit somewhat reduced, against that variant.

Which seems to be the general expectation; variants which modulate immune effectiveness are expected, but entire new strains, which entirely escape immune response, not so much.