Coronavirus outbreak

[tom73]

The government did not fail to heed anything.

What the government did was realise bearing down too heavily on the public would be counter productive because the public wouldn't stand for it.

These are the competing interests which had to be balanced.

As it was, we had a couple of relatively half-hearted protests against Lockdown1, suggesting the government got it about right, putting on about as much restriction as the public would bear.

Easy to say 'follow the medics' advice 100%', but experience now tells us the public (as a whole) simply will not do that.

That is with the benefit of hindsight.

Thankfully, the government was savvy enough to grasp early on there would be compliance problems.

Added to that is enormous pressure from business to carry on trading, parents to keep schools open, how to raise funding for treatment/support for those unable to earn, and probably a few more.

All of which produces a decision making minefield.

The government negotiated that minefield as well as many government could have been reasonably expected to do.

So it's all our fault and nothing at all to do with the government and delaying practical measures , continuing to publicly and privately to undermine and discredit government appointed world leading, highly respected medical professionals and scientifically qualified experts.

Making a total balls up of public health messaging, setting up completely new and separate systems. That bypass already well testing and effective ones. With a soul goal of allowing your mates to make a mint, failing to have enough and correct PPE leading to well over 600 and still growing health care workers deaths.

A health secretary that tried to blame lack of PPE on HCP's for miss using it. Falling to learn to from errors as the pandemic played out or willing to admit anything is wrong. Continuing to bring the health service to the brink of collapse over and over again. Having one of the worse death rates in world is all down to being in the public's own good ?

Because we can't handle being told the truth, or being treated like grown up's and told we either go in hard once for a bit longer and do it quickly. Backed up by a clear, consistent messaging delivered by someone who the public have confidence in. At no point having a plan what to do before any of this happened or as it was clearly running out of control. Has nothing to do with the government at all ,as they heeded all the pre pandemic warnings and have continued to heed current ones ?

Glad that's been cleared up in the mean time other part of world with equal free will and democratic systems who got treated as a adults , had a government that did take notice of what it was told. Held inquires into things that went wrong along the way learned and changed things. Had a health secretary that took responsibility for one error and resigned. Have in place effective ,practical help and support to allow anyone to self isolate without having to worry about being not able to afford it. Never bought into or sold to the public the health and wealth narrative or the one that see's health workers as hero's so it's only expected when they continue to die as that's what hero's do. Not highly trained and dedicated professionals who should have what ever it takes to protect as they care for others.

Have for the best part of last year and now been largely free to get back to near enough "normal". Have total death and case numbers which we go sailing past every day. Must have a public that are totally up for being treated badly and believe everything they are told unable to question anything.

 

[roubaixtuesday]

Thankfully, the government was savvy enough to grasp early on there would be compliance problems

There have been very few compliance problems, and the most notable is people continuing to work due to poverty.

We have the highest death toll in the world, nearly. We are not the least compliant nation in the world.

 

[mjr]

There have been very few compliance problems, and the most notable is people continuing to work due to poverty.

We have the highest death toll in the world, nearly. We are not the least compliant nation in the world.

That notable one may be as low as 17% of people with symptoms going for a test and only 25% isolating when told, because positive means off work means bankruptcy. https://news.sky.com/story/covid-19...e-in-four-britons-fully-self-isolate-12195040

 

[tom73]

There have been very few compliance problems, and the most notable is people continuing to work due to poverty.

We have the highest death toll in the world, nearly. We are not the least compliant nation in the world.

Which is something else they get told over and over again.

 

[Pale Rider]

There have been very few compliance problems,

Any number of stories indicate otherwise.

The latest being 400 guests at a Jewish wedding.

Not an insignificant number, which in turn indicates a widespread belief in that community that the restrictions do not apply to them.

 

[roubaixtuesday]

Any number of stories indicate otherwise.

The latest being 400 guests at a Jewish wedding.

Not an insignificant number, which in turn indicates a widespread belief in that community that the restrictions do not apply to them.

"Stories" do not indicate a systemic problem.

Believing they do is an excellent example of confirmation bias.

 

[mjr]

Any number of stories indicate otherwise.

The latest being 400 guests at a Jewish wedding.

Not an insignificant number, which in turn indicates a widespread belief in that community that the restrictions do not apply to them.

Wow. I don't think it is safe to generalise from one illegal wedding to the whole Jewish community like that - and I don't remember condemnation of the whole Anglican community after the Essex wedding parties.

 

[glasgowcyclist]

There have been very few compliance problems, and the most notable is people continuing to work due to poverty.

We have the highest death toll in the world, nearly. We are not the least compliant nation in the world.

I heard a UK Gov stat quoted on Radio Scotland this morning that only 17% of people with symptoms get tested and only 1 in 4 people comply with self-isolation rules. That sounds pretty bad to me.

EDIT: TMN to mjr

 

[Ajax Bay]

only 17% of people with symptoms get tested

On the plus side, that might mean we'll get to the deescalating effects of developing herd immunity quicker as we can add a larger number of 'had it already, and have antibodies' to those vaccinated.
Anyone get a ride in in the last few days?

 

[mjr]

I think it is important to remember that testing and quarantine compliance is just one aspect of compliance, we're pretty good on most others, and government still has more tools available if it wanted to improve testing and quarantine, including quarantine orders which they seem to steadfastly refuse to use.

On the plus side, that might mean we'll get to the deescalating effects of developing herd immunity quicker as we can add a larger number of 'had it already, and have antibodies' to those vaccinated.

Except for all the uncertainty that still remains about the antibodies from infection and whether they protect people against which variants and for how long - remember Gaviria! - and relying on it would widen the unknown error range of estimates.

Anyone get a ride in in the last few days?

In general, that would be off-topic, but it was like cycling through a zombie apocalypse here yesterday, which was useful because I was hauling a trailer of contactless shopping and I welcomed being able to use the empty carriageway to avoid some of the rough surfaces and annoying slopes on a few bits of late-90s cycleway - but I had failed to realise just how bumpy that anti-skid surface on the carriageway is when it starts to crack up (which is almost immediately after it is laid, such is the damage done by motorists). Anyway, it seemed from the traffic level on the A10 like lockdown is being adhered to fairly well ☺

 

[kingrollo]

Any number of stories indicate otherwise.

The latest being 400 guests at a Jewish wedding.

Not an insignificant number, which in turn indicates a widespread belief in that community that the restrictions do not apply to them.

Pri Patel - quoted compliance figures of 92% the other day - some other behavioural scientists have put it 94%. Whatever we do short of house arrest we aren't going to improve compliance beyond those figures.

Those figures hold good even if you see a few headline grabbers flouting lockdown.

 

[matticus]

Pri Patel - quoted compliance figures of 92% the other day - some other behavioural scientists have put it 94%. Whatever we do short of house arrest we aren't going to improve compliance beyond those figures.

Those figures hold good even if you see a few headline grabbers flouting lockdown.

But do we know we can't (couldn't) improve compliance? This government never really tried. They didn't talk about prosecutions, and they let the celebrities/politicians/footballers rub our noses in it. (pick from Cummings or Celtic FC. etc etc ... )

The road safety example is drink-driving; a concerted campaign decimated the number of offenders, mainly by making it socially unacceptable. People probably thought 90% compliance there was impossible until someone tried to fix it.

 

[kingrollo]

But do we know we can't (couldn't) improve compliance? This government never really tried. They didn't talk about prosecutions, and they let the celebrities/politicians/footballers rub our noses in it. (pick from Cummings or Celtic FC. etc etc ... )

The road safety example is drink-driving; a concerted campaign decimated the number of offenders, mainly by making it socially unacceptable. People probably thought 90% compliance there was impossible until someone tried to fix it.

Good and fair point.

My point was that if you want to slow the spread further IMO tightening restrictions would be the way to go. Rather than going after the 8% of non compliance. The current lockdown restrictions for example aren't as tight as those in March 2020.

 

[Pale Rider]

"Stories" do not indicate a systemic problem.

Believing they do is an excellent example of confirmation bias.

Stories do need to be interpreted, but inevitably most non-compliance will go unreported.

From reading on here, many of us have observed non-compliance among friends, neighbours, and strangers.

Also worth bearing in mind the Hasidic community in Stamford Hill is relatively small, probably numbered in the thousands or at most, tens of thousands.

Four hundred people showing no regard to the restrictions is a large proportion of that community.

It's vanishingly unlikely everyone else in that community is in full compliance, which in turn does indicate a widespread disregard for the restrictions.

 

[matticus]

My point was that if you want to slow the spread further IMO tightening restrictions would be the way to go. Rather than going after the 8% of non compliance. The current lockdown restrictions for example aren't as tight as those in March 2020.

Yeah, there's an argument for that; my fear is that the 8% will ignore whatever the restrictions are.

Having a drink with your 8 mates in a living room is a spreading event whatever the restrictions happen to be at that time.

Workplaces seem to get a free hand at the mo - where I work I think we have good, workable controls in place. But I read many horror stories of places that just don't seem to care. No-one from the HSE ever come to check on us!

I'm speculating now ...