Coronavirus outbreak

[kingrollo]

Stories do need to be interpreted, but inevitably most non-compliance will go unreported.

From reading on here, many of us have observed non-compliance among friends, neighbours, and strangers.

Also worth bearing in mind the Hasidic community in Stamford Hill is relatively small, probably numbered in the thousands or at most, tens of thousands.

Four hundred people showing no regard to the restrictions is a large proportion of that community.

It's vanishingly unlikely everyone else in that community is in full compliance, which in turn does indicate a widespread disregard for the restrictions.

Don't ever become prosecution lawyer.

 

[Joey Shabadoo]

This might uncover a lot of unsavoury activities if my son's place of employment are anything to go by

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-55753816

A special Crown Office unit set up to probe Covid-linked deaths is investigating cases at 474 care homes in Scotland, the BBC can reveal.
The unit was set up in May to gather information on the circumstances of all deaths in care homes.
Prosecutors will eventually decide if the deaths should be the subject of a fatal accident inquiry or prosecution.
Care homes say the investigation is "disproportionate" and placing a huge burden on overstretched staff.
The Covid-19 Deaths Investigation Team (CDIT) had received 3,385 death reports as of Thursday.
The majority of them relate to people who lived in care homes.

 

[kingrollo]

Yeah, there's an argument for that; my fear is that the 8% will ignore whatever the restrictions are.

Having a drink with your 8 mates in a living room is a spreading event whatever the restrictions happen to be at that time.

Workplaces seem to get a free hand at the mo - where I work I think we have good, workable controls in place. But I read many horror stories of places that just don't seem to care. No-one from the HSE ever come to check on us!

I'm speculating now ...

Agreed - That's why I wouldn't be committing a stack of resources to drive down that figure.

We have a tighter lockdown reference point in last March - that worked. Sure we have a more transmissible strain out there right now, but if numbers aren't falling fast enough we could go back to the March level of restrictions.

 

[Dave Davenport]

The mayor of Hackney, Philip Glanville, said he was "deeply disappointed" that the wedding party had taken place, despite "the number of lives that have already been lost in the Charedi community and across the borough".
I don't think anyone's suggesting there is a compliance issue with the entire Jewish community, but there would appear to be within this small (and I suspect insular) part of it.
To my mind a gathering that large, be it a wedding or illegal rave should result in an even larger fine than the current £10k or some people will continue to risk it.

 

[matticus]

To my mind a gathering that large, be it a wedding or illegal rave should result in an even larger fine than the current £10k or some people will continue to risk it.

Indeedy.
(and that wedding was illegal under almost every form of limits since March)

It's enforcement/messaging we need, perhaps more than fiddling with the actual restrictions.

 

[Ajax Bay]

Except for all the uncertainty that still remains about the antibodies from infection and whether they protect people against which variants and for how long - remember Gaviria! - and relying on it would widen the unknown error range of estimates.

First - you raised my morale by providing Gaviria as an example: I could go and enjoy some stuff about cycling.
Second, ref 'uncertainty' - yes but minute. Here's an excerpt from the Cambridge Independent online
“Of nearly 30 million cases to date since December 2019, there have been only about 10 documented and confirmed cases of re-infections. These data suggest that resistance to reinfection might be less a function of durability of the immune response and more one of breadth,” said the authors, led by Deepta Bhattacharya, an immunobiologist at the University of Arizona College of Medicine.
“Although the SARS-CoV-2 genome is diversifying slowly compared with other more mutable pathogens, high levels of pre-existing immunity in communities could lead to the selection of rare viral variants that evade neutralising antibodies.”

So I think it is entirely reasonable to make the assumption that for a fair period (could be less than 9 months at the 90th percentile) aka: "rely on it" that the risk of reinfection is nil, for broad statistical work. Can always foot note an optimism bias.
Off topic: Thank you for steering to the edge of the topic and sharing your "cycling through a zombie apocalypse" experience.

ETA: On the other hand PHE SIREN study says (press release):
"PHE scientists working on the study have concluded naturally acquired immunity as a result of past infections provide 83% protection against reinfection, compared to people who have not had the disease before. This appears to last at least for 5 months from first becoming sick.
"While the SIREN study will continue to assess whether protection may last for longer, this means people who contracted the disease in the first wave may now be vulnerable to catching it again.
"Between 18 June and 24 November, scientists detected 44 potential reinfections (2 ‘probable’ and 42 ‘possible’ reinfections) out of 6,614 [NHS] participants who had [previously] tested positive for antibodies. This represents an 83% rate of protection from reinfection.

 

[Ajax Bay]

. . . if you want to slow the spread further IMO tightening restrictions would be the way to go. Rather than going after the 8% of non compliance.

Not this, imo. (More 'waffling drivel' available)

It's enforcement/messaging we need, perhaps more than fiddling with the actual restrictions.

This.

 

[tom73]

This might uncover a lot of unsavoury activities if my son's place of employment are anything to go by

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-55753816

Sadly I think will find things are not as they should care homes have just been a mass accident like covid in waiting.
What with poor training , poor staff numbers, poor investment, poor management and poor social worth by the public.
Add in poor government investment , over stretched social services , over stretched primary care and the ever going number for extra beds.
Good homes either shut up shop or price themselves out of what LA are able to pay. If you can manage to in one finding a place is not easy.
So you're left with a right odd mess of Russian roulette.
As the UK was just totally not ready for this pandemic it's no wonder even the good homes just got thrown to wolves up and down the total UK. Along with group homes and hospices all seen and feed the narrative by governments as being full of people who die anyway.
Which is total rubbish but helped when deaths started to mount and the questions got going.

 

[mjr]

I heard a UK Gov stat quoted on Radio Scotland this morning that only 17% of people with symptoms get tested and only 1 in 4 people comply with self-isolation rules. That sounds pretty bad to me.

EDIT: TMN to mjr

Strangely, BBC News seemed to be saying it was 43% getting tests and only 38% not isolating this morning:

And they also showed this testing centre worker getting far closer than 1m to people in the queue - but is it OK because they have the all-powerful hi-vis on?

 

[pawl]

The mayor of Hackney, Philip Glanville, said he was "deeply disappointed" that the wedding party had taken place, despite "the number of lives that have already been lost in the Charedi community and across the borough".
I don't think anyone's suggesting there is a compliance issue with the entire Jewish community, but there would appear to be within this small (and I suspect insular) part of it.
To my mind a gathering that large, be it a wedding or illegal rave should result in an even larger fine than the current £10k or some people will continue to risk it.

Fine the school for allowing there school to be used Fine the participants and make them pay to be tested
As you say the current penalties are not enough People ,promoters will continue to flout the rules until it becomes unprofitable to stage these eventss

 

[roubaixtuesday]

Of course, compliance of people walking in parks <2m apart and house parties is what's the cause of the spread.

Not keeping premium air travel to luxury winter holiday destinations open. Oh no.

London/Dubai is now the busiest flight route *in the world* . All essential travel, natch.

https://www.dubailad.com/london-to-dubai-now-the-busiest-flight-route-in-the-world/

This govt attempt to shift narrative on to individual compliance is a joke. Don't fall for their lies.

 

[Dave Davenport]

I was talking to a mate (who's a fair bit better off than me) a couple of days ago. He'd just cancelled an up market long haul holiday which he'd booked through a specialist travel agent, he reckoned there was no shortage of holidays available to places all over the world if you had the money.

 

[Ajax Bay]

Revealed: how COVID-19 came into the UK​

A team of scientists, led by researchers from the Universities of Oxford and Edinburgh, has analysed the first wave of the Covid-19 outbreak in the UK and produced the most fine-scaled and comprehensive genomic analysis of transmission of any epidemic to date. ​

https://www.alumni.ox.ac.uk/article/revealed-how-covid-19-came-into-the-uk
"Published today in Science, analysis reveals that the virus was introduced to the UK well over a thousand times in early 2020 and that the rate and source of introduction changed very quickly. During this time the highest number of transmission chains were introduced from Spain (33%), France (29%), and then Italy (12%) – with China accounting for only 0.4% of imports. The study shows how the UK national lockdown affected individual transmission chains."
NB Magnitude of Spain warm-weather half term holiday returners (my massive assumption based on purpose of majority of UK-Spain air travel in late Feb and the spike on 1March)
"By reconstructing where and when COVID-19 was introduced to the UK we can see that earlier travel and quarantine interventions could have helped to reduce the acceleration and intensity of the UK's first wave of cases."
"The ability to ramp up genomic surveillance at a large scale was made possible by the decision to fund the COVID-19 Genomics UK (COG-UK) consortium in April and builds on decades of blue-skies basic research into virus evolution, led by Oxford and Edinburgh universities, which developed the theory leading to scientists having these tools and theory at their disposal."
Well done the government. Another entry on the 'credit' sheet.

 

[mjr]

Well done the government. Another entry on the 'credit' sheet.

There you go again. I was going to like it but then you try to put that in the credit column without noting the debits like failure to quarantine travellers early.

 

[Joey Shabadoo]

Early evidence suggests the variant of coronavirus that emerged in the UK may be more deadly, Prime Minister Boris Johnson said.
The data has been assessed by scientists on the New and Emerging Respiratory Virus Threats Advisory Group, which has briefed government.
However, all the evidence remains at a preliminary stage.
Studies have already shown it can spread more easily than other version of the virus.
The new variant was first detected in Kent in September. It has since become the dominant version of the virus in England and Northern Ireland and has spread to more than 50 other countries.
Mr Johnson said: "In addition to spreading more quickly it also now appears that there is some evidence that the new variant, the variant that was first identified in London and the south east, may be associated with a higher degree of mortality.
"It's largely the impact of this new variant that means the NHS is under such intense pressure."

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-55768627

feck