Another concise post from @Ajax Bay Your blasting of my links yesterday - is precisely why I didn't put a link in today. - the story is readily out there. So there was no increase in handwashing last Feb - OK. - Thats about as credible as any of your waffling drivel I suppose.
My heart rose reading your first assessment, but.
https://www.cyclechat.net/threads/f...d-be-agreeable-even-when-you-disagree.227879/
Apologies for not being concise, but needs must: the devil is often in the detail (like 'where the f*** do you get that from'?)
You may find this difficult to appreciate,
@kingrollo but I am interested in the points you raise. If you think the basis of what you say is weak and sharing a link will invite people to examine what it says, I can understand why you'd not want to share the link. Thank you to
@deptfordmarmoset for pointing to the Guardian article. I note the sensible use of "may" scattered liberally therein. Academics have done a bunch of work and share that, offering something for the media to bite on. On cases, the
data from gov.uk on the date of sample are clear: falling. Of course "it may be that in coming days there will be a flattening off, but clearly we need to keep a watching brief” - as opposed to 'won't be a flattening off' and 'not keeping a watching brief'.
Here's the link to the Imperial College's React-1 infection survey - today's (21 Jan) report (pre-print)
https://spiral.imperial.ac.uk/handle/10044/1/85583
Summary (edited - to mitigate risk of albeit incredible 'waffling drivel'
accusations)
The REal-time Assessment of Community Transmission study-1 (REACT-1) obtains throat and nose swabs from between 120,000 and 180,000 people in the community in England at approximately monthly intervals.
Round 8a of REACT-1 6-15 Jan . . compared with Round 7 13 Nov - 3 Dec
Results In round 8a, . . we found no strong evidence for either growth or decay averaged across the period (end Nov to mid Jan); based on data from a limited number of days, prevalence
may have started to rise at the end of round 8a.
Conclusion During the initial 10 days of the third COVID-19 lockdown in England in January 2021, prevalence of SARS-CoV-2 was very high with no evidence of decline. Until prevalence in the community is reduced substantially, health services will remain under extreme pressure and the cumulative number of lives lost during this pandemic will continue to increase rapidly.
My comment: Infection level about the same in mid January as at the end of November. And this is news? Nothing to see: move along.
You can just envisage Imperial desperately trying think of a way of spinning this monthly 'result' to get at least a bit of media coverage, given the considerable and useful work they've done. As
@johnblack has said this period spanned the maximum, as I think any reasonable person would recognise - at least someone who understands that calculus is not a cloud formation.
(The current (mid Jan) daily case rate is dropping: 7-day average 20+%.) It is still high and of course the current restrictions are having a beneficial effect.
The daily cases by specimen date peaked on 1 Jan:
https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/details/cases
The UK daily admissions peaked on 9 Jan.
https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/details/healthcare
Regrettably (but in line with statistical expectation) the death rate (7-day rolling average) has yet to peak, but we can hope that will be in a less than a week. And the effect of the vaccination programme (over 80s) will start contributing to the reduction in serious illness levels by the end of the month and also to NHS staffing levels as less will be off sick or self-isolating.