Coronavirus outbreak

[Wobblers]

All with the benefit of hindsight in what was a fast moving situation.

Each of the government policies looked reasonable enough at the time, given the competing interests they had to balance.

As more millions are vaccinated, the dramatic shifts in infection should slow, which will make planning the next moves easier.

However, there are still possibilities for which it is all but impossible to plan, such as a new variant which behaves in a markedly different way.

Good news for those whose main interest is keeping up a barrage of criticism aimed at the government.

Except this isn't actually true. Epidemiologists were almost unanimous in calling for lockdown far sooner than the government did - and the government failed to heed their advice of a short "circuit breaker" lockdown in September. I, along with roubaixtuesday and rocky predicted that the failure of test and trace would lead to a second wave. I'm saddened to have been proven correct. This is one thing that I'd have been glad to have you point out my error. The consequences of these failings are clear to see - though it must be said that few other countries have come out much better.

We have done exceptionally badly. And when I say "we", I mean all of us in the West. Even Germany, who were held up as an example of good Covid management a few months ago, have a track record that is - by any objective measure - poor. The few countries that performed well all learned from the SARS outbreak. Us, in our arrogance, treated it as some remote issue limited to mostly Asia, and dismissed it as irrelevant.

This is the result of a virus that is not exceptionally transmittable, and has a low lethality. In short, we've been extremely lucky. The next pandemic will probably be worse. Bird flu, for instance. It's still circulating, mostly in Asia. It kills over half of those it infects. Fortunately for us, human to human transmission is rare. But virulence and transmittability are controlled by different parts of the influenza genome - we are only a few mutations away from facing something that is far, far worse than Covid.

We must do better. There must - must - be a proper in depth and far reaching inquiry into all aspects of how the UK dealt with Covid with the sole purpose to find the mistakes, and ensure that they will not occur again. This will not be the time or place for political point scoring, or blame: it's far too important for that. The consequences of failing to learn these Covid lessons could well mean that millions will die in the next pandemic. And, make no mistake, there will be a next pandemic.

 

[mjr]

Paris, Berlin, Madrid are really surprising. Their traffic congestion numbers are at 2019 levels suggesting that everyone is just travelling around there as normal during the daytime. Amsterdam and Rome are much more like London

Well, Paris and Madrid aren't currently locked down in daytimes, according to gov.uk, so not that surprising?

 

[nickyboy]

Well, Paris and Madrid aren't currently locked down in daytimes, according to gov.uk, so not that surprising?

I'm sure there must be some generalised "only travel if necessary" advice in France and Spain. But traffic is at pre pandemic levels in German, French and Spanish capitals. Interesting that traffic levels are much lower in Amsterdam and Rome.
Maybe other W European countries are just as bad at adhering to advice as we are?

 

[Ajax Bay]

We must do better. There must - must - be a proper in depth and far reaching inquiry into all aspects of how the UK dealt with Covid with the sole purpose to find the mistakes, and ensure that they will not occur again. This will not be the time or place for political point scoring, or blame: it's far too important for that. The consequences of failing to learn these Covid lessons could well mean that millions will die in the next pandemic. And, make no mistake, there will be a next pandemic.

Very well said. I'll comment.
The output of inquiries needs to be lessons identified. Those lessons can come from both actions and inactions that had a poor outcome. And lessons where good practice was developed, possibly shared, possibly adopted widely or narrowly. We would be wise to pick up lessons from around the world too, not just from the UK experience. If this effort degenerates into political manoeuvring and assigning 'blame' the benefit will be diluted.
Once the lesson set is produced the even harder yards will be to decide which of these lessons can be learned, and which are not practical for a variety of reasons, to learn. This will require the government of the day, and of the next year/decade, to 'buy in' to the learning process and powerful 'learning organisation' which is tasked to track the extent to which each lesson has been learnt, with evidence of the changes made. Some lessons will require too much resources to 'learn'. The reasons need to be stated and shared. This is a pan-departmental issue for government and will be anything but easy. Like climate change mitigation measures, without buy-in at all levels, this process will founder.
We owe it to those who'll have to grapple with the next pandemic (more or less transmissible virus; more or less lethal) to invest effort now and see the lessons from COVID-19 are learnt.

 

[classic33]

The foot and mouth outbreak*, and the effects of the restrictions put in place then, have been forgotten. Including the tracking system used, largely paper records, has gone.

In an area that was affected, whole areas were placed off limits to the public. This time people are ignoring the restrictions, almost fighting to get out into open areas.

*Coming up on 20 years.

 

[Ajax Bay]

The foot and mouth outbreak

Lessons:
https://visit.caerhays.co.uk/diaryimages/2020_04/Foot-and-Mouth-Disease-2001-Inquiry-Report.pdf

Major lessons to be learned:
•Maintain vigilance through international, national and local surveillance and reconnaissance.
•Be prepared with comprehensive contingency plans,building mutual trust and confidence through training and practice.
•React with speed and certainty to an emergency or escalating crisis by applying well-rehearsed crisis management procedures.
•Explain policies, plans and practices by communicating with all interested parties comprehensively, clearly and consistently in a transparent and open way.
•Respect local knowledge and delegate decisions wherever possible, without losing sight of thenational strategy.
•Apply risk assessment and cost benefit analysis within an appropriate economic model.
•Use data and information management systems that conform to recognised good practice in support of intelligence gathering and decision making.
•Have a legislative framework that gives Government the powers needed to respond effectively to the emerging needs of a crisis.
•Base policy decisions on best available science and ensure that the processes for providing scientific advice are widely understood and trusted.
These lessons should be incorporated into a national strategy designed to:
•Keep out infectious agents of exotic disease.
•Reduce livestock vulnerability by reforms in industry practice.
•Minimise the impact of any outbreak.

 

[classic33]

Lessons:
https://visit.caerhays.co.uk/diaryimages/2020_04/Foot-and-Mouth-Disease-2001-Inquiry-Report.pdf

And how often are people, on here, complaining about others travelling to/through areas they've been asked to stay away from. Doing stuff that they've been asked not to do.

Not the full report either, even on lessons learned.

Piece that still echoes today.
"The outbreak was traumatic for everyone it touched. Many people sustained extreme working patterns, often 12 or more hours a day, seven days a week for long periods. They absorbed a great deal of emotion from farmers and others who were in considerable distress. Many staff, often at quite junior levels, endured abuse and intimidation.

Some suffered breakdowns. Some are still suffering.

Training on how to cope with stress was patchy."

Seems as though some are still in need of learning. Long hours, extreme working patterns and abuse.

 

[MntnMan62]

I'm curious about something. The CDC Data Tracker shows the total number of US deaths from Covid as of today to be 400,306. Meanwhile Worldometers shows the number of US deaths as of today to be 415,894. And supposedly Worldometers is using the CDC's approach at counting deaths. What gives?

 

[oldworld]

All with the benefit of hindsight in what was a fast moving situation.

Each of the government policies looked reasonable enough at the time, given the competing interests they had to balance.

As more millions are vaccinated, the dramatic shifts in infection should slow, which will make planning the next moves easier.

However, there are still possibilities for which it is all but impossible to plan, such as a new variant which behaves in a markedly different way.

Good news for those whose main interest is keeping up a barrage of criticism aimed at the government.

I was always taught to judge by results. However you dress it up and find excuses, this government hasn't performed well.
This government is more focused on window dressing their failures.
I'll give credit when it's due and to date they have done well on rolling out the vaccine, it's to be hoped they keep this up and the world follows suit.

 

[Pale Rider]

Except this isn't actually true. Epidemiologists were almost unanimous in calling for lockdown far sooner than the government did - and the government failed to heed their advice

The government did not fail to heed anything.

What the government did was realise bearing down too heavily on the public would be counter productive because the public wouldn't stand for it.

These are the competing interests which had to be balanced.

As it was, we had a couple of relatively half-hearted protests against Lockdown1, suggesting the government got it about right, putting on about as much restriction as the public would bear.

Easy to say 'follow the medics' advice 100%', but experience now tells us the public (as a whole) simply will not do that.

That is with the benefit of hindsight.

Thankfully, the government was savvy enough to grasp early on there would be compliance problems.

Added to that is enormous pressure from business to carry on trading, parents to keep schools open, how to raise funding for treatment/support for those unable to earn, and probably a few more.

All of which produces a decision making minefield.

The government negotiated that minefield as well as many government could have been reasonably expected to do.

 

[Rocky]

The government did not fail to heed anything.

What the government did was realise bearing down too heavily on the public would be counter productive because the public wouldn't stand for it.

These are the competing interests which had to be balanced.

As it was, we had a couple of relatively half-hearted protests against Lockdown1, suggesting the government got it about right, putting on about as much restriction as the public would bear.

Easy to say 'follow the medics' advice 100%', but experience now tells us the public (as a whole) simply will not do that.

That is with the benefit of hindsight.

Thankfully, the government was savvy enough to grasp early on there would be compliance problems.

Added to that is enormous pressure from business to carry on trading, parents to keep schools open, how to raise funding for treatment/support for those unable to earn, and probably a few more.

All of which produces a decision making minefield.

The government negotiated that minefield as well as many government could have been reasonably expected to do.

One of the major problems is the disagreement on how the Covid virus spreads. Scientists still can't agree whether it spreads through droplets or via aerosol (viral particles in the air). This leads to problems with preventative measures: washing hands and not touching face (because of fomite transmission) to face mask wearing and very strict social distancing (air transmission). As ever, very few scientists are taking time to re-evaluate their position as new evidence arises. Given this, it is hard for policymakers when they are getting such conflicting advice.

FWIW, I'm pretty certain it spreads through the air.

 

[kingrollo]

One of the major problems is the disagreement on how the Covid virus spreads. Scientists still can't agree whether it spreads through droplets or via aerosol (viral particles in the air). This leads to problems with preventative measures: washing hands and not touching face (because of fomite transmission) to face mask wearing and very strict social distancing (air transmission). As ever, very few scientists are taking time to re-evaluate their position as new evidence arises. Given this, it is hard for policymakers when they are getting such conflicting advice.

FWIW, I'm pretty certain it spreads through the air.

I think there is some movement on this school of thought now. Especially has some sources are now suggesting that uk cases are longer falling - but stable.

Although hand washing and mask wearing are important. We didn't see any fall in cases last feb, when everyone was washing there hands like crazy. Masks more difficult as some people started them voluntary, then we were encouraged, then it became compulsory in cetain areas - ie shops.

 

[Ajax Bay]

[how virus spreads: droplets v aerosol] some movement on this school of thought now. Especially has some sources are now suggesting that uk cases are longer falling - but stable.
Although hand washing and mask wearing are important. We didn't see any fall in cases last feb, when everyone was washing there hands like crazy.

"some movement on this school of thought" Share a link to a description of the discussion, please. Or maybe @Rocky can provide.
"some sources" suggest that cases are not falling. Which, please? The UK tracker suggests a 7-day average reduction of 21%.
"last feb . . . everyone was washing there hands like crazy" Pretty sure the 'wash hands' message had had very limited effect (and certainly not "crazy" washing of hands, by the leap day). Perhaps it was different in their neck of the woods.
Timeline: PHE "News story" dated 4 March: https://www.gov.uk/government/news/public-information-campaign-focuses-on-handwashing
Infection rates in February and March did anything but fall. Without hand washing, the infection rates might have increased even faster. Do you agree?
Effective, frequent and wide-spread hand washing is standard recommended practice, well explained here by the British Safety Council: https://www.britsafe.org/publicatio...-important-to-stop-the-spread-of-coronavirus/
And besides, what better way to instill pride in our country (other kingdoms may apply) than to encourage regular singing of the national anthem (20 second version). 'Singing' the Lord's Prayer is one alternative option: other prayers of all faiths and none available.

 

[classic33]

One of the major problems is the disagreement on how the Covid virus spreads. Scientists still can't agree whether it spreads through droplets or via aerosol (viral particles in the air). This leads to problems with preventative measures: washing hands and not touching face (because of fomite transmission) to face mask wearing and very strict social distancing (air transmission). As ever, very few scientists are taking time to re-evaluate their position as new evidence arises. Given this, it is hard for policymakers when they are getting such conflicting advice.

FWIW, I'm pretty certain it spreads through the air.

It was found, in closed off areas, of one of the cruise ships, seventeen days after the last person had left the area.*

*By those checking, and deep cleaning the area.

The church pew, "Patient One" used nearly a day later. And still they can't agree/say how it's transmitted from one to the next.

Too many chiefs, not enough Indians. Those Indians left are growing very tired. Mistakes happen when people get tired and carry on working. Remember the "Take a break" adverts for drivers.

 

[deptfordmarmoset]

"some movement on this school of thought" Share a link to a description of the discussion, please. Or maybe @Rocky can provide.
"some sources" suggest that cases are not falling. Which, please? The UK tracker suggests a 7-day average reduction of 21%.

The topic was raised on BBC Radio 4 this morning. The Guardian covers it here: https://www.theguardian.com/world/2...ve-stopped-falling-major-english-survey-shows