Coronavirus outbreak

[Pale Rider]

Fine the school for allowing there school to be used Fine the participants and make them pay to be tested
As you say the current penalties are not enough People ,promoters will continue to flout the rules until it becomes unprofitable to stage these eventss

Some guests were fined, but it appears when the coppers turned up, lots of people legged it in all directions.

The organisers have been fined £10,000, although the school is saying they let the room to a third party, not knowing what it was to be used for.

Might even be true, but in the current climate if you let a large capacity hall, you ought to be taking an interest in why such a venue is required.

There was a queue of prominent members of the Jewish community on BBC news taking turns to condemn the event.

Only words, but at least some people in that community grasp the 400 are a bunch of irresponsible knackers.

 

[mjr]

There was a queue of prominent members of the Jewish community on BBC news taking turns to condemn the event.

Only words, but at least some people in that community grasp the 400 are a bunch of irresponsible knackers.

But you still stand by your earlier posts accusing the whole Jewish community of flouting lockdown, despite this evidence to the contrary?

 

[Pale Rider]

But you still stand by your earlier posts accusing the whole Jewish community of flouting lockdown, despite this evidence to the contrary?

No I did not accuse the 'whole Jewish community' of flouting lockdown.

What I said was a significant number of the orthodox community in Stamford Hill - the 400 - were paying no heed to the regulations.

The number is significant because the total membership of that community is a few thousand, or possibly a couple of tens of thousands.

I know you attempt to twist every story to bleat about Brexit and the Tory government, but leave my posts out of it.

 

[SpokeyDokey]

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-55768627

feck

I think that really needs qualifying to avoid possible confusion. What was said was that in a population of >60 year old males the mortality rate per 1000 individuals would rise from 10 deaths (old variant) to 13-14 deaths (new variant) per 1000.

3-4 more deaths, sad as each may be, out of 1000 of the above population is not a massive increase per se.

Of course, some observers may wish to view that as requiring a headline number of a 'whopping 30-40% increase'.

NB: not aimed at you JS but I've just listened to the Beeb hyping that exact message up with an unqualified headline announcement.

 

[Ajax Bay]

Edit note: "70%" is a figure which we can only estimate within a band of uncertainty: not much lower and could be up to 20 points higher. Depends on transmissibility of the dominant variant when we get 'there' and other factors (see earlier posts). Also doesn't take account of effective drop in vaccination rate from early March when the 12 week gap second doses are due (@200-300k per day).

 

[mjr]

No I did not accuse the 'whole Jewish community' of flouting lockdown.

What I said was a significant number of the orthodox community in Stamford Hill - the 400 - were paying no heed to the regulations.

Your words in https://www.cyclechat.net/threads/coronavirus-outbreak.256913/post-6283363 were "The latest being 400 guests at a Jewish wedding. Not an insignificant number, which in turn indicates a widespread belief in that community that the restrictions do not apply to them."

Nothing about Orthodox or Stamford Hill until later. Maybe you would like to revise your earlier statement to mention some other community than only "Jewish".

Even then, going from 400 scofflaws to "tens of thousands " is debatable.

I know you attempt to twist every story to bleat about Brexit and the Tory government, but leave my posts out of it.

Neither of those were mentioned but I guess you have to call for help somehow.

 

[midlife]

I think that really needs qualifying to avoid possible confusion. What was said was that in a population of >60 year old males the mortality rate per 1000 individuals would rise from 10 deaths (old variant) to 13-14 deaths (new variant) per 1000.

3-4 more deaths, sad as each may be, out of 1000 of the above population is not a massive increase per se.

Of course, some observers may wish to view that as requiring a headline number of a 'whopping 30-40% increase'.

NB: not aimed at you JS but I've just listened to the Beeb hyping that exact message up with an unqualified headline announcement.

I am a >60 male so getting the new variant gives me a 10-50% greater chance of not surviving. I guess about 7 million of us are thinking the same thing.......

 

[nickyboy]

These isolated instances of mass non compliance (like the Jewish one) are a tiny blip which barely registers on the national Covid radar. If you do the maths the enhanced likelihood of extra hospitalisations is a very small number at a time when tens of thousands are in hospital.

We are at ninety something % compliance. That's the number that matters.

These isolated examples actually serve a purpose as it provides the opportunity to widely publicise a tough crackdown with large fines which helps to keep compliance % up. So I'm all for the outrage at these events. Not for the events in themselves but the impact they have on keeping general compliance levels up

 

[SpokeyDokey]

I am a >60 male so getting the new variant gives me a 10-50% greater chance of not surviving. I guess about 7 million of us are thinking the same thing.......

So am I, 64 and counting.

I see the increase as a small uplift on already negligible probability of dying due to Covid.

It would be surprising if many men in our age group have got up in a fret this morning worrying about the respective death rates of the two variants.

 

[fossyant]

My brother's got his staff vaccinated at his dental practice. Two younger female staff won't have it as they are worried about fertility issues. FFS too much social media influence from conspiracy theorists.

 

[Ajax Bay]

@SpokeyDokey - I too doubt the 'fret' level will have ticked up this lovely Saturday morning, but I hope you don't mind if I observe that neither 1% nor (going up to) between 1.1% and 1.5% is a negligible death rate. I suspect if male >60 then corrects, if applicable, for lack of obesity and for lack of relevant underlying conditions, the risk/rate might then drop below 0.1%, which might be judged 'negligible'.
But the chances of me not finishing a ride whatever my body, the weather, mechanicals or other road users throw at me is less than 0.1% - and I make some effort to mitigate that small risk. As (I suspect) all those on here do, both to do their best to get all the way home, and to avoid catching COVID-19 (and the risk of serious illness and long term effects), let alone dying from it.
Sunny tailwinds!

 

[SpokeyDokey]

From the Beeb today:

I wonder how long it will be, or if, before internal borders are closed in Europe?

I hadn't realised that Germany's death numbers had risen to >50k either.


Borders to remain open

The total number of German Covid deaths climbed above 50,000 on Friday - a day after the country warned that it could close its borders if other EU countries were less strict in controlling the virus. Berlin sounded the alarm amid rising concern about new variants.
EU leaders agreed late on Thursday to keep their internal borders open but warned non-essential travel might need to be restricted to curb the spread of the virus.

Ms von der Leyen said Thursday that more testing and "targeted measures" were needed throughout the EU in order to keep internal and external borders open.

For its part, France said it would impose tighter travel restrictions for European arrivals from Sunday, requiring a negative PCR Covid test within three days of travel.

In the Netherlands, a ban on all flights from the UK, South Africa and South American countries came into effect on Saturday to try and prevent new coronavirus variants gaining a foothold.

Looking forward to the future, officials from EU nations reliant on tourism - including Spain and Greece - have floated the possibility of using vaccination certificates to allow for cross-border travel but there has been scepticism within the bloc.

 

[Pale Rider]

In other international virus news, looks like China has fired up its history airbrush - again.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-asia-china-55765875

 

[Ajax Bay]

how long it will be, or if, before internal borders are closed in Europe?

There's going to be a growing battle within and between EU nations between the value of national border controls within the Shengen area countries and the importance of EU unity and free travel within the state of Europe. I guess they'll handle it at least as well as the EU vaccine procurement omnishambles and EMA authorisation of the various vaccines debacle.
For the avoidance of doubt, these are observations, albeit with perjorative nouns used, and not a comment on whether the UK should have stayed a full member of the EU. I am fighting off schadenfreude not least because of the millions of the poorer nations of the Europe project.
Had we stayed a member of the EU, the EMA would have stayed in London with its excellent staff (witness the UK's outstanding MRHA) and there would have been a strong and beneficial UK element and influence in the EU vaccine procurement to ensure that national interests (France and Sanofi-GSK, looking at you) were kept in check.

 

[tom73]

My brother's got his staff vaccinated at his dental practice. Two younger female staff won't have it as they are worried about fertility issues. FFS too much social media influence from conspiracy theorists.

Can I ask how he's mannered it ? As access in the wider health service is a right mix bag and a mess. Only ask as Mrs 73 can't access it for her or her staff and the wider centres she is over seeing.